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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

Overnight Trade

May Corn up 5 3/4

May Beans up 14 1/2

May Wheat up 15 3/4

Sell Signals

Today beans will be in their 3rd day of a Roach Ag Sell Signal. We want to continue with our daily sales over the next 3 days. We are recommending making sales of an increment of beans in the bin and an increment of new crop that you cannot store on the farm. We expect at least one more bean Sell Signal during our Selling Season, so calculate your sales increment accordingly.

We also want to buy November bean puts on this Sell Signal. You will find that November bean puts are very high priced as they were on the last Sell Signal. Yet the $9.00 to $12.00 strike priced bean puts purchased on the last Sell Signal increased in value from 300% to 500% when bean prices dropped.

The extended corn Sell Signal ended yesterday. We expect at lease one more Sell Signal in corn and will wait until the next market peak to make additional sales.

We continue to buy corn puts to bring coverage up to ¾ of the new crop corn you plan on storing unsold.

Wheat markets are struggling in their effort to go higher, but we will wait for the next Sell Signal to make additional sales.

Markets

Asia-Pacific stocks today closed mostly higher after Monday’s sharp losses: Japan +0.57%, Hong Kong +0.38%, China +1.33%, Taiwan +0.36%, Australia +1..09%, Singapore +0.44%, South Korea -0.46%, Bombay +2.19%. The European Dow Jones Stoxx 50 index is trading -0.27% this morning.

Grain markets were higher except for wheat yesterday as weather forecasts increased rain likelihood and Chinese buying of beans continued.

Wheat prices were led lower by Minneapolis trading limit down as spring wheat basis collapses and trade estimates over the weekend that world wheat production will be up 44 million tons from last year. This type of rebound in world production will have the USDA rebuilding stocks in their May world S&D projections. China estimated their wheat crop production at 107 million tons which would preclude any large Chinese imports. Spring wheat mills cut basis due to reduced demand. Kansas City basis values steady to higher. Trade also focusing on at least two prospects for scattered rains in Western U.S. HRW areas this week and next to stabilize mediocre conditions there.

Trading houses confirmed that the Chinese government bought 150,000 tons of soyoil and 300,000 tons of soybeans for state reserves last week. The beans came from the U.S., while the oil came from either the U.S. or Brazil. China has reportedly released bean oil from its reserves to fight inflation in recent months. China’s February inflation hit a 12-year high at 8.7%, while March’s number is expected to come in tomorrow at 8.3%.

After the close, traders looked at the USDA’s first national Planting Progress Report as positive to prices and took corn futures up on the overnight trade. U.S. winter wheat crop conditions were reported at 47% good/excellent, 2 points better than last week, but below the 55% average. To see the state by state breakdown on wheat ratings, click here.

Celeres reported Brazilian soybean harvest at 71% complete, 8% better on the week and 4% ahead of average, but 8% behind last year at this point.

Argentine farmers had harvested 35.5% of their soybean crop as of Friday, according to the BA Grain Exchange, which was 14.5% ahead of last year. The BA pegged the corn harvest at 39.4% complete.

March NOPA soybean crush came in at 148.2 million bushels, well below the average trade estimate of 150.9 million bushels. The March crush was 8.9 million bushels larger than last year, but only 200,000 bushels larger than last year.

China estimated their 2008 corn acreage will be down 2.3% but production may be up 4 million tons from last year on increased inputs and improved weather. This would allow their corn supply demand situation to be stable in the coming year. China estimated their soy acreage will be up 9% from last year increasing their bean production 2.2 million tons from last year. China estimated rapeseed acreage up 12% but is expecting an unchanged crop size due to freeze reduced yields and dry weather.

Planting Progress is Slow

U.S. corn plantings were 2% completed according to the USDA’s weekly report compared to last year’s 4% and the five-year average of 7%.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.