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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

Overnight Trade

May Corn dn 9

May Beans dn 19

May Wheat dn 13 1/4

Ag Consultants Needed

After making a brief mention that we are running ads trying to add top quality staff and new office locations, we had a couple of inquiries. I figure you know the best people, so if you know someone who might be a good addition to Roach Ag, we would sure appreciate it if you would have them get in touch with Brian Roach at 800-622-7628. For more information about who we are looking for, go to: http://www.roachag.com/career-opportunities

Sell Signals

Today beans will be in their 7th day of a Roach Ag Sell Signal, but will likely lose it today. We have wrapped up sales on this Sell Signal. We expect at least one more bean Sell Signal during our Selling Season and will wait for it to make additional sales.

The extended corn Sell Signal will likely end today as well. We expect at lease one more Sell Signal in corn and will wait until the next market peak to make additional sales.

We continue to buy corn and bean puts to bring coverage up to ¾ of the new crop you plan on storing unsold.

Winter wheat markets broke down to new recent lows on Friday. Spring wheat is close to its recent low as well. We will wait for the next Sell Signal to make additional sales, hoping the prices will be higher than today when it comes.

Markets

Asia-Pacific stocks traded higher on carry-over support from last Friday’s sharp U.S. rally: Japan +1.63%, Hong Kong +2.17%, China -0.15%, Taiwan +0.10%, Australia +3.14%, Singapore +1.48%, South Korea +1.70%, Bombay +1.57%.

The weekend weather delivered less rain than traders expected and the forecast tipped toward better planting conditions this week. FCStone’s weather guru is adamant that quite a bit of corn will be planted this week, and more forecasters seem to agree this morning. Traders expect the corn planting progress to be well below normal this afternoon.

I believe that we are in the middle of a weather scare that the crops will not be planting in a timely fashion. If the weather allows planting, I think prices will fall and that was the reason for last night’s lower prices.

The grains you produce are wholesale inputs and require a buyer to be able to make money using them. To think that demand for grains will grow when few if any users are able to make money is a huge leap in speculative faith. Users are making their plans today for 2009 and those plans must include the highest cost of grain ever. On the April USDA Report the average prices reported told a story about input costs to your buyers:

The average wheat farm gate price was $3.42 for 2005-06; $4.26 for 2006-07; $6.65 (mid-point of the USDA estimate) for 2007-08; and December 2008 wheat futures are between $9.00 and $10.00 depending on the type of wheat you produce.

The average corn price was $2.00 for 2005-06; $3.04 for 2006-07; $4.30 for 2007-08; and December 2008 corn futures are near $6.25.

The average soybean price was $5.66 for the 2005-06 crop year; $6.43 for the 2006-07 crop year; $10.25 2007-08; and November 2008 soybean futures are close to $13.00.

New crop futures are at a price sure to suck equity out of the livestock and ethanol business unless we see consumer staggering record increases in meat and energy prices. And you must count on Washington to keep all bio-fuels incentives in place ignoring consumer and world environmental complaints in one of the most important election years in recent history.

Argentina’s Ag Secretary forecast their 2007/08 soybean production at 47.2 million tons on Friday, up slightly from the previous estimate, and current USDA official forecast, of 47 million tons. Corn output was also raised slightly, from 20.5 to 20.6 million tons compared to the USDA’s 21.5 million tons estimate.

The Ag Secretary also pegged Argentine corn harvest at 38% complete a of Thursday, 7 points better on the week and 7 points ahead of last year.

Livestock producers got two pieces of good news on Friday, first on the supply side. USDA’S monthly Cattle On Feed report showed April 1st feedlot inventories at 11.684 million head, 0.3% larger than one year ago and 1% smaller than analysts’ expectations. The on feed number was smaller than expected because March placements (down 11..4%) were well below expectations and March marketings (100% of last year) were larger than expected.

On the demand side, the U.S. and South Korea announced an agreement Friday that should result in the resumption of U.S. beef exports in mid-May. Exports of U.S. beef and beef products from cattle of all ages will be allowed. Exports to South Korea totaled 587 million pounds, carcass weight, in 2003 before the first U.S. BSE case. Shipments were negligible from 2004 through 2006 before going through a series of starts and stops last year, culminating in the virtual closing of the Korean market in November.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.