
May Corn dn 3 1/4
May Beans up 2 3/4
May Wheat dn 8 3/4
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Beans are still in their extended Sell Signal after finding strength when prices could not break down through their green line 20-day moving average. A market’s performance when it nears the green line is very important. We have wrapped up sales on this Sell Signal. We expect at least one more bean Sell Signal during our Selling Season and will wait for it to make additional sales.
The Sell Signal in corn has ended but you have to be impressed with the corn market’s ability to rebound after breaking down the green line 20-day moving average on Monday. We expect at lease one more Sell Signal in corn and will wait for it to make additional sales.
We continue to buy corn and bean puts to bring coverage up to ¾ of the new crop you plan on storing unsold.
Wheat prices continue to slide lower with increasingly larger crop estimates coming from almost all major world wheat production areas. We will wait for the next Sell Signal to make additional sales, hoping the prices will be higher than today when it comes.
Asia-Pacific stocks today closed mostly higher: Japan +0.23%, Hong Kong +1.40%, China +4.78%, Taiwan -0.32%, Australia +1.59%, Singapore +0.21%, South Korea +0.58%, Bombay -0.51%. The European markets are trading slightly higher with the European DJ Stoxx 50 up +0.10%.
The fear that the U.S. corn crop will not be planting in a timely fashion continues to be the biggest market factor traders are talking about. In addition, for the past two days we have seen Chinese pricing of earlier commitments, which stimulated bean prices higher.
Corn planting progress is well behind normal and traders know that a late planted crop has frequently caused below trend yields as pollination gets pushed into the hottest weeks of the year. FCStone’s weather guru is adamant that quite a bit of corn will be planted this week, and we talked to farmers yesterday who were running their planters.
Brazil’s Abiove projected the country’s 2007/08 soybean crop at a record 61.3 million tons yesterday, slightly below their 61.5 million ton March estimate, but still well above their 58.73 million ton number last year. Abiove left their export forecast unchanged at 27.3 million tons, up 15% from last year.
Brazilian farmers have sold 67% of their soybean crop by last Friday, according to AgRural, compared to 62% a month ago, and 55% at this point last year.
German grain house Toepfer estimated the 2008 European Union soft wheat crop at 128.37 million tons yesterday, well ahead of last year’s 111.4 million ton crop. That is close to last week’s 128.5 million ton number from French analyst Strategie Grains. Major year-to-year increases forecasted by Toepfer included an additional 5.3 million tons in France (to 36.1 million ton), a 3.2 million ton rise in Great Britain (to 16.3 million tons), and a 2.5 million ton larger crop in Germany (to 23.3 million tons).
India’s wheat output will reach an all-time record of 76.78 million tons, according to their government officials, nearly 2 million tons higher than their previous estimate. Total food grain output is estimated to rise to a record 227.32 million tons, exceeding the government’s target of 222 million tons. Their farm minister reported that imports will not be needed in 2008, after they bought 5.5 million tons following a poor crop in 2006 – their first imports in 6 years – and a small amount in 2007.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.