Search

Search:

John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

Overnight Trade

May Corn up 6 1/4

May Beans up 15 1/4

May Wheat up 6 1/2

Sell Signals

Today the corn market will be in the 7th day of a Roach Ag Sell Signal. We have wrapped up sales of the bushels we wanted to get done on this Sell Signal. We expect at lease one more Sell Signal in corn and we will wait on any additional sales until the next market peak.

We will continue to buy puts for customers who want to cover up to ¾ of the new crop corn they plan on storing unsold.

We have no Sell Signal in beans or wheat but both markets have bottoms posted on their charts.

USDA Report

The USDA cut U.S. corn ending stocks, left wheat stocks unchanged and raised their bean ending stocks estimate in today’s reports. All the changes were expected and there were no surprises in the USDA report that I could find.

Corn ending stocks for this fall before the new crop harvest begins were estimated at 1.283 billion bushels compared to last month’s estimate of 1.438 and the average trade guess of 1.303 billion bushels.

The USDA estimate for U.S. ending soybean stocks came in at 160 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 157 million bushels vs. USDA’s estimate of 140 million bushels last month.

The USDA estimate for U..S. wheat ending stocks were unchanged from last month at 242 million bushels compared to the average stocks trade guess of 261 million bushels. To read the USDA Reports in detail click here.

Markets

Asia-Pacific stocks closed mostly lower today: Japan -1.05%, Hong Kong -1.35%, China -5.22%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia -0.92%, Singapore -1.30%, Bombay +1.30%. The European DJ Stoxx 50 this morning is trading -0.50%.

The USDA Reports did not give traders much new to trade. Everybody expected the revisions that were made which makes the weather forecast the most important market ingredient.

I personally think the worry about getting corn planted is the biggest factor pushing corn prices higher right now so a change to warmer dryer weather by most forecasters would be negative to prices in my humble opinion. But, most forecasts are wetter and colder today and the guys on the floor are pointing at another week of planting delays. The colder wetter weather forecast is overriding the USDA Reports this morning in the corn pit.

Today the bean market will try again today to clear the green line 20-day moving average. If prices can clear the green line with power, the bean market will accelerate to higher prices quickly. We think the Chinese still have lots of beans to buy and hope that will help drive prices up through the resistance.

Notice that Minneapolis May wheat has challenged the green line 20-day moving average and could clear it today. The winter wheat markets are not at their resistance lines yet. Wheat prices should move higher.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.