Search

Search:

John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

Text Only Version

Travels

This morning we are hosting a sold out roundtable meeting in Oskaloosa, Iowa followed by a public seminar at 3:00pm in the Mahaska County Extension.

Bring a friend to one of our open public seminars if you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan. If your friend signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.

We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.

We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com/

presentations

At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.

Public Seminars:

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – Sold Out

Mahaska County Extension

212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA

From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!

Expo Gardens

1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL

From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Parkland Community College

Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center

2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Travelers Inn

1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Roundtable Seminars:

In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.

Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left

Princeton, IL

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Ottawa, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Clinton, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – 3 Seats Left

Lincoln, IL

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Kokomo, IN

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Monticello, IL

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Lebanon, IN

Sell Signals

We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets

No change in our advice. Our plans to hold on sales until spring time Sell Signals remains the same. If you are a buyer of grain, getting those needs covered at current prices remains our plan. Our Sell Signal indicators are solidly in reset mode over a long period of time typically giving us a good window buy bushels or protect against higher prices. Again, if you have buying needs, make sure you have it done.

If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.

Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar came under pressure yesterday after a trace of news from Europe stated the united countries of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy had worked out a bail out scheme to shore up fiscal problems. Markets took the news positively and began selling the Dollar but as quick as the news was heard, different versions of the story were repeated which slowed down the Dollar sell off. Traders will sit and wait for resolution that will hold water. Yesterdays sharp move lower in the Dollar signals where our currency could be headed based on the huge supply of stimulus money the U.S. government has pumped into our economy with more expected to come. We expect the Dollar to fall under long term pressure, all else the same.

Traders were not much impressed with the smallish changes to corn ending stocks in yesterdays USDA report. Higher ethanol forecasts by 100 million bushels we would think is the first round of more increases in ethanol. Given the EPA has signed off on ethanol’s long term ability to meet green house gas emission mandates, combined with a profitable outlook, its seems the next discussion would be when to push blending rates to E15? Seems like a natural next step at this point.

Those of us with the theory of lower test weights showing up as disappearance in the feed line will have to look a little deeper into the numbers as no change was reported. What we are looking at is the increasing rate of corn fed and DDG combined versus the U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production numbers. Total meat and poultry numbers were revised lower, 90,477 to 90,458 million pounds but feed and DDG numbers combined actually increased. Our chart below is a solid trend higher – the livestock volume would not be.

Please click on the chart to see the full size.

Using some guestimates of our own, a test weight of 53 instead of 56 on 10% of the crop would eat up or “Disappear” 70 million bushels. Double the problem to 20% of the crop and we use up half of the 300 million bushels the USDA found in January’s report. From the reports we get across the Midwest, we would not be surprised to see more on this topic in upcoming reports. Remember, we have government statisticians organizing the data but use economists to look at the big picture. They typically can and will move numbers around to tie out year over year USDA estimates.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home

To View Your Subscription Click Here

Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.56 3/4

- 1 3/4

9.23 3/4

- 3/4

4.83 1/2

+ 1 1/4

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

3.91 3/4

- 1 3/4

9.09

- 3 1/2

5.10 3/4

+ 3/4

World Markets

S&P 5001,070.52+1.30% Europe DJ Stoxx2,701.57+1.24% Japan9,963.99+0.31% Hong Kong19,922.22+0.67% China3,214.13+1.42% Taiwan7,441.84+1.10% Australia4,513.40+0.18% Singapore2,734.39-0.39% South Korea205.94-0.03% Bombay15,922.17-0.75% Libor0.25+0.12%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart

Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart

Click here for full size Ethanol Chart

Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart

Click here for the full size Corn Chart

Click here for the full size Soybean Chart

Click here for the full size Meal Chart

Click here for the full size Wheat Chart