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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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Travels

We are moving to Illinois this morning, hosting another sold out roundtable meeting in Princeton at the Ye Old Underground Inn starting at 9:00am.

Good news for those near Mason City! We have rescheduled the public meeting for next month at the same location. Hopefully a date in mid March is safe but who knows – I remember the winter of 72’.

“Rescheduled” Commodity Marketing Seminar

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

North Iowa Area Community College

Beem Forum

500 College Drive

Mason City, IA 50401

2 p.m. – 4 p.m. CST

Open to the public, $10.00 at the door

Bring a friend to one of our open public seminars if you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan. If your friend signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.

We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.

We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com/

presentations

At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.

Public Seminars:

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!

Expo Gardens

1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL

From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Parkland Community College

Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center

2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Travelers Inn

1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Roundtable Seminars:

In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.

Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – SOLD OUT

Princeton, IL

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Ottawa, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Clinton, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – 2 Seats Left

Lincoln, IL

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Kokomo, IN

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Monticello, IL

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Lebanon, IN

Sell Signals

We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets

I know it gets a little boring but we have no change in our advice. Markets are working through the old news and factoring in the “New” news each day. Our plan to make sales in our Selling Season of March – June is a time honored cycle and this year comes no different. We think there are plenty of activities going on in the grain markets with potential for higher prices no different than any other year.

Buyers of grain beware as our corn and soybean markets have quietly moved up to our green line 20 day moving averages. Soybeans have been the leader, breaking through the green line yesterday. After a long, multi-week reset below the Roach Ag Sell Signal 25 line, prices have drifted into territory we pay close attention.

*Today we are ending our advice to get buying needs covered.

We will include in our writing when to accumulate feed needs again.

If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.

Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.

Markets

Traders are buying the U.S. Dollar while the combined European leaders work out some sort of safety net for the countries in debt trouble. When each country gave up their currency to unite under one “Euro”, they essentially handed over the keys to the money printing presses. Today, countries like Greece and Spain have debt problems and have no way to fix them other than plead to the Euro Union for help. While traders wait for announcements on resolutions, the U.S. Dollar is king.

Traders have plenty to digest in our grain markets as we approach another Roach Ag Selling Season. We think there a plenty of stories to play out this season.

What do traders have to think about?

- Mother Nature has just dropped another white coat of snow across the Midwest. Will more cold and wet weather push planting dates like last year in Illinois. The resulting corn / soybean acres is unknown at this point.

- Index funds have accumulated large positions and are likely in no hurry to exit while open interest in grains continues to grow.

- Ethanol barriers are mostly out of the way for expansion. Good profits are in the books and forecasted ahead.

- The USDA reduced ending stocks. If test weight issues persist, more disappearance will result in tighter stocks again, all thing being equal. How many bushels do we really have in storage bins?

Old and new. The large South American soybean crop is old news. The new problem with the large crop is logistical in nature. Poor roads and infrastructure will only allow a certain amount of beans to the ports. Call it a knot in the hose. If China’s appetite for soybeans continues, where will they get the soybeans? As much as the Chinese government wants to slow down economic growth, they still expect to grow 8-9%! Economists have already reporting loan volumes exceeded forecasts for the January period even though Chinese officials wanted all lending stopped and capital requirement increased. It’s hard to slow down the appetite of millions of people who want to live a better life.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

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Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.63 3/4

+ 2

9.45 3/4

+ 8 1/4

4.93 1/2

- 3 1/4

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

3.97 3/4

+ 1 3/4

9.22

+ 6 1/2

5.21

- 3 1/4

World Markets

S&P 5001,068.13-0.22% Europe DJ Stoxx2,669.59-1.13% Japan9,963.99+0.31% Hong Kong20,290.69+1.85% China3,220.40+0.20% Taiwan7,441.84+1.10% Australia4,554.30+0.91% Singapore2,753.63+0.70% South Korea209.73+1.84% Bombay16,152.59+1.45% Libor0.250.00

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

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Click here for full size Ethanol Chart

Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart

Click here for the full size Corn Chart

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