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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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Travels

Public Seminars:

Today we are in Peoria, IL working with Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM – at:

Expo Gardens

1601 W. Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL

From 8:30 am to 11:00 a.m.

Tomorrow we will be at:

Parkland Community College

Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center

2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Open to the public, $10.00 at the door

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Travelers Inn

1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Open to the public, $10.00 at the door

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

North Iowa Area Community College

Beem Forum

500 College Drive, Mason City, IA 50401

From 2 p.m. – 4 p.m. CST

Open to the public, $10.00 at the door

Roundtable Seminars:

In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Clinton, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left

Lincoln, IL

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Kokomo, IN

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Monticello, IL

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Lebanon, IN

Sell Signals

We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets, but are very close to getting one in beans and corn.

As you can see from the charts, soybeans are within a day of giving us a Sell Signal if prices don’t fall apart. Beans have inched up above the green line 20-day moving average, but they have not exploded in the process. If we get a show of bullish power we would expect this rally to have some legs. Spec traders liquidated a big portion of their long positions in January and will likely re-purchase beans if the trend continues upward.

The corn market is nearly identical to the bean market also nearing a Sell Signal. Wheat is lagging but making upside progress as well.

The prices we have are disappointing compared to the levels seen in January on the corn and wheat Sell Signals. We were very close (one day away) to getting a bean Sell Signal in January at prices that were also much better. So what does a producer do when prices are disappointing but we get a Sell Signal? Pare back the size of your daily sales and look ahead to see if the distant new crop bids are very close to what there prices were in January. In other words try to find something that makes sense to sell.

We learned years ago that ignoring a Sell Signal during the first half of the year was usually the wrong thing to do when seen through the rearview mirror 8 or 9 months later.

Markets

I see little new to talk about. The big spec traders have been the big sellers of grains and commercials and index funds have been the buyers. Throughout the price decline since the New Year began, open interest in grains has increased over 400,000 contracts. When open interest increases it signals that new buyers and new sellers came to the market place.

With the big specs having liquidated nearly their entire long position, there is plenty of buying power available if the trends turn solidly upward. The big specs have made lots of money being long during spring for several years. Why wouldn’t they get long in 2010 when the trends turn higher?

I know everybody says the South Americans have such a big crop that they will take away our markets when their harvest hits its peak, but I question that. I don’t think they have the transportation to do that. The greater likelihood is that they will be selling for more months than normal and the U.S. will still have to supply beans to satisfy world (Chinese) demand right through the South American harvest.

Get ready to make sales, we will call you when we get the Sell Signal. Go slow with your sales this week unless you are really anxious to get grain out of the bin or money into your checkbook.

January NOPA crush is expected to come in at 161.8 million bu this morning, down from 164.4 mbu in Dec, but well above 139.1 mbu last January.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

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Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.64 1/2

+ 3

9.55 3/4

- 10 3/4

4.94 3/4

+ 8 1/4

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

3.99 1/2

+ 2 1/4

9.29 1/4

+ 7 1/4

5.21 1/4

+ 7 1/4

World Markets

S&P 5001,075.51-0.27% Europe DJ Stoxx2,687.71+0.14% Japan10,034.25+0.21% Hong Kong20,268.690.00China3,251.280.00Taiwan7,441.840.00Australia4,567.80+0.49% Singapore2,758.90+0.19% South Korea209.73+0.47% Bombay16,226.68+1.17% Libor0.250.00

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