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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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Travels

Public Seminars:

Today we are in Champaign Illinois at:

Parkland Community College

Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center

2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Open to the public, $10.00 at the door

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Travelers Inn

1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Open to the public, $10.00 at the door

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

North Iowa Area Community College

Beem Forum

500 College Drive, Mason City, IA 50401

From 2 p.m. – 4 p.m. CST

Open to the public, $10.00 at the door

Roundtable Seminars:

In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Clinton, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – Sold Out

Lincoln, IL

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Kokomo, IN

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Monticello, IL

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Lebanon, IN

Sell Signals

We are in day two of a soybean Sell Signal and are getting close to one in corn.

Yesterday the bulls stepped into the soybean market alongside strong energies pushing us firmly into a soybean Sell Signal. Trend following spec funds have enough ammo to support a rally as strong basis and good demand are giving them early bullish trading ideas. Old crop basis in many areas has strengthened, bringing cash prices in some closer to price levels seen earlier this year.

It is still early. Ideas about why we could have higher prices have not unfolded yet and it will likely take more time and more Sell Signals to see how things play out. Most years we find the period of March – June the best months to market grain but this year we sold soybeans early and aggressively and now we can be patient. Current prices are less appealing than earlier sales but we want to remember the game is about average prices. How do sales look after you average them in and what will be the net result on the farm? Our advice is to reward the rally with sales but space them out and keep dribbling out grain during this Sell Signal.

Look for opportunities to sell something. Old crop soybean cash prices are worth a good look and basis in new crop in some areas we know is seasonally stronger than normal. If you are selling to buyers who are offering you a better deal than normal, don’t be afraid to get some locked in. Many of our customers wait for seasonal strength in basis, locked it in and then later price the futures on Sell Signals the following spring. Whatever your flavor, just get something done and space your sales out.

Matt from Iowa asked, “Is there a sell signal on new crop beans, too? I see the chart is only for March 2010 beans.”

We always use the delivery month with the biggest volume of trade to determine the Sell Signal for every delivery month. Yesterday’s bean Sell Signal was for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 beans. Did you know you could sell beans that far out. Write down the prices, they range from $9.41 to $9.61. My bet is that a $9.50 sale in each of those years will look good during harvest 2010.

The corn market will likely bring us a Sell Signal today if markets follow through on yesterdays move and our ideas about selling corn are nearly the same as soybeans. If you are eager to sell corn, wait for our alert to get started but space out those sales. If you are worried about corn going out of condition, this will be your window to get some sold.

How will the sales we have available today look in the rearview mirror? Most years we find sales in the first half of the year always look better 8-9 months later.

Markets

Yesterday the U.S. Dollar traded lower back down to support levels partially supporting higher grain prices. Today the Dollar is unchanged. Bank talk in Europe and government spending seems to blanket the nightly television with the same stuff.

Seasonality is upon us. Each year we are rewarded with a Selling Season created mostly by the fear and influence of how Mother Nature will treat the crop. Favorable and unfavorable, worrisome and not so worrisome, big deal and not so big a deal. They end up giving us Sell Signals to price grain regardless of why the markets are higher. Don’t fret about it. Higher prices will have all kinds of reasons why but don’t get caught up in why.

Nobody in Chicago is looking out for your farm profits. It is actually quite the opposite. Spec traders and large funds have their own objectives that give our world of farmers a chance to sell grain on higher prices. Get more grain sold on your farm during our Selling Season, and most years, you will make more money.

Get ready to make sales, we will call you when we get the Sell Signal. Go slow with your sales this week unless you are really anxious to get grain out of the bin or money into your checkbook.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

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Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.66 1/2

- 3/4

9.61 1/4

- 4 1/4

5.02 1/2

- 2 1/2

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

4.02 1/2

- 1/4

9.38 1/2

- 2 1/2

5.30

- 2 1/4

World Markets

S&P 5001,094.87+1.80% Europe DJ Stoxx2,770.93+1.84% Japan10,306.83+2.72% Hong Kong20,534.01+1.31% China3,251.280.00Taiwan7,441.840.00Australia4,667.90+2.19% Singapore2,794.06+1.27% South Korea213.44+1.77% Bombay16,428.91+1.25% Libor0.25+0.25%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

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Click here for full size Ethanol Chart

Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart

Click here for the full size Corn Chart

Click here for the full size Soybean Chart

Click here for the full size Meal Chart

Click here for the full size Wheat Chart