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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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Travels

At 10:00 this morning we will be conducting this tour’s final round table seminar at the Warehouse Sports Bar, 1206 W. South St, Lebanon, Indiana.

Thursday, February 25th John Roach will be working with Woofter Construction and Irrigation in Colby, Kansas. John will be speaking at the Comfort Inn Convention Center, located at exit 53 on I-70. The program begins at 3:30 PM and is free and open to the public, but you must register in advance. Please call Shannon at 785-462-7441 to reserve a seat.

Sell Signals

Overnight we lost the soybean Sell Signal. Meanwhile both corn and wheat backed away from what looked like a certain Sell Signals just 3 days ago.

Today we are still frustrated about the January bean Sell Signal that we nearly had, but didn’t quite get. We are further frustrated about the corn Sell Signal we didn’t quite get this week. Even the bean Sell Signal we got this week ran out of gas in 3 days when it really should have lasted longer than normal…..the way I had it figured.

During this round of seminars we have been analyzing the corn market and bean market Sell Signals for the past 6 years during our presentation. Sell Signals worked very well in each of the past 6 years corn market and 5 out of the last 6 bean markets. In 2007 beans moved higher all summer and every spring sale turned out to be cheap.

When looking at those charts (for the 16th time in the last 3 weeks) last night, we can easily see that Sell Signals are frequently less than perfect. If you go to our web-site www.roachag.com and look at the last slides from our cruise presentation you can see those charts.

Many times during the 12 markets we examined we just about got a Sell Signal but didn’t. Many times Sell Signals lasted 2, 3, or 4 times their normal 4 to 6 days in length. Yet through it all, we were able to get really good sales made during the spring. In 11 out of 12 examples those sales proved to be surprisingly good by the August September lows.

In other words don’t sweat these markets right now. It is February and we don’t expect to plant this month or get good prices. Our Selling Season begins next month. That is when we expect to get a chance to sell at prices that look good in August and September.

Oh sure I wanted a perfect Sell Signal on beans but we didn’t get it. And we all learned again why we should make sales on the first day of a Sell Signal. Sorry I didn’t give you better leadership on this one. I don’t know what I was thinking when I said to go slow…… But, history shows us that we can relax because we will likely have several more chances to make sales during the next 5 months.

Beans could not be held down below the green line 20-day moving average last night which again should encourage trend following speculators to reduce their short positions and accumulate long positions.

Corn staged a reversal which is also a positive performance in view of the strong Dollar.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar exploded higher starting late yesterday and continuing overnight. Traders believe the Fed signaled yesterday that the long slow process of increasing interest rates is about to begin. In addition the rhetoric of non-cooperation between countries coming out of Europe chased traders to the Dollar.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

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Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.56 3/4

- 1/2

9.42

- 6

4.82

- 3

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

3.94 1/4

- 1

9.23 1/2

- 7 3/4

5.09

- 3 1/4

World Markets

S&P 5001,106.75+0.65% Europe DJ Stoxx2,768.61-0.34% Japan10,123.58-2.05% Hong Kong19,894.02-2.59% China3,251.280.00Taiwan7,441.840.00Australia4,634.76-0.43% Singapore2,757.14-0.44% South Korea208.70-1.81% Bombay16,191.63-0.83% Libor0.25+0.27%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

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Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart

Click here for the full size Corn Chart

Click here for the full size Soybean Chart

Click here for the full size Meal Chart

Click here for the full size Wheat Chart