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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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On TV

Andy Shissler, Manager of our Downers Grove, Illinois office will appear on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day this weekend. You can see U.S. Farm Report and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: http://www.agweb.com

/MediaLauncher2.aspx?show=USFR

Travels

After a weekend of rest, we will resume our meetings on Monday. We have really been having fun hanging with farmers all week. Farmers are such great people!

We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out, and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.

We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com

/presentations

At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.

Public Seminars:

Monday, February 8th, 2010

John Roach will be at N IA Area Com. College

Beem Forum

500 College Drive, Mason City, IA

From 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Mahaska County Extension

212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA

From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!

Expo Gardens

1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL

From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Parkland Community College

Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center

2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Roundtable Seminars:

In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – 4 Seats Left

Oskaloosa, IA

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

Princeton, IL

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Ottawa, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Clinton, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Lincoln, IL

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Kokomo, IN

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Monticello, IL

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Lebanon, IN

Sell Signals

We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets

If you are a livestock producer and have grain to buy, buy weakness.

If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.

Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar strengthened sharply this week as traders increased their worry about European debt problems and many other countries economic conditions. Our grain markets fell along with just about every other commodity market in the world as a direct consequence of the Dollar’s weakness.

I know recent price declines have brought all the bears out of the woodwork and they are telling you how bearish things are, but it is the wrong time of year to be negative. There have been few changes in world grain fundamentals since prices peaked in late 2009. The Dollar is up some and the South American crops are getting closer to maturity. In addition some countries around the world are very, very slowly reducing their individual economic stimulus and increasing borrowing costs.

But, if you didn’t know the South American crops were big, you have been hiding under a rock for 4 months. We sold in November and December on those fundamentals. The stronger Dollar might be a little surprising but it really hasn’t moved that far and has a greater likelihood of getter cheaper than getting lots stronger. On Tuesday’s USDA reports most demand estimates will be increased because usage as been better than expected.

When will the amount of snow and colder than normal weather become more important than the old news of a big crop in South America? When will traders begin to put weather risk premium into the price structure? How many days before we should be planting? How long before we get our first – in what will be a string of positive economic news?

Meanwhile we have to wait out grain markets that will put in February lows when we least expect it, tying us “up in knots” while the bears build up their short positions. Then when prices turn higher as we worry about raising a big crop (and make no bones about it, we must have big crops in the U.S. this year to supply record demand) those shorts will have to buy their way out. We count on them every spring to give us our Sell Signals and for the life of me I cannot see any way that will not happen again this spring.

Don’t let these bearish markets spook you. We have to raise big crops in the Northern Hemisphere in 2010. From where I sit in North Central Iowa this morning, spring seems a lot further off than optimum planting dates. Sure it could warm up, all the snow can melt and the ground dry out in plenty of time for a good planting season, but warm weather had better hurry. My bet is we will have more than the normal spring planting worries which is what Illinois farmers have been telling me for months.

When I have asked farmers this week for a show of hands on how many are worried about getting their planting done in a timely fashion, about half are worried today. I wonder how long it will be before everybody gets worried?

Check out the export sales report charts from yesterday. As you can see, even wheat is finally getting some buying activity. Bean sales were slow but are so far ahead that everybody expects the USDA to raise its estimate.

Click here for the Weekly US Corn Export Sales

Click here for the Weekly US Soybean Export Sales

Click here for the Weekly US Wheat Export Sales

Relax about markets this weekend. It is February and we have to give users a chance to buy something cheap or we will lose them forever. The spec traders gave you good prices to sell in November, December and January. Now they are giving users cheaper prices to buy in February. I am betting they will give you higher prices to sell in March, April, May, and June. What would we do without their good work?

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

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Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.51 1/2

- 2 1/2

9.17

+ 3

4.72 1/4

- 3 1/2

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

3.88

- 3/4

9.14

+ 4

4.99

- 3 1/4

World Markets

S&P 5001057.50-0.40% Europe DJ Stoxx2383.13-1.73% Japan10057-2.89% Hong Kong19665-3.33% China3153-2.04% Taiwan7218-4.30% Australia4514.1-2.33% Singapore2683.56-2.24% South Korea205.06-3.15% Bombay15791-2.68% Libor0.25+0.37%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart

Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart

Click here for full size Ethanol Chart

Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart

Click here for the full size Corn Chart

Click here for the full size Soybean Chart

Click here for the full size Meal Chart

Click here for the full size Wheat Chart