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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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On TV

Andy Shissler, Manager of our Downers Grove, Illinois office appeared on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day over the weekend. You can see U.S. Farm Report and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: http://www.agweb.com

/MediaLauncher2.aspx?show=USFR

Travels

Today’s Mason City Public Seminar has been cancelled due to weather.

Our week begins in Osage, Iowa this morning with a roundtable meeting of about 15 farmers. If you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan and you bring a friend who signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.

We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.

We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com

/presentations

At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.

Public Seminars:

Monday, February 8th, 2010 – CANCELLED

John Roach will be at N IA Area Com. College

Beem Forum

500 College Drive, Mason City, IA

From 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Mahaska County Extension

212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA

From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!

Expo Gardens

1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL

From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Parkland Community College

Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center

2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Travelers Inn

1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Roundtable Seminars:

In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – 2 Seats Left

Oskaloosa, IA

Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – 3 Seats Left

Princeton, IL

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Ottawa, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Clinton, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Lincoln, IL

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Kokomo, IN

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Monticello, IL

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Lebanon, IN

Sell Signals

We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets

Seasonality in the grain markets is upon us with big reports from the USDA around the corner. Buying weakness ahead of reports to insure today’s prices is smart. Just one look at our charts to the right tells you we are just one step of bullish news away from a potential change in trends. We have been writing the livestock producers should be covering feed needs. Make sure you have it done.

If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.

Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar has firmed up into this mornings trading after a long week of sorting out the magnitude of debt problems that began in Greece. Traders worry the debt problems could trickle into other European countries already severely leveraged. A lack of confidence and worries about the higher cost of financing huge amounts of stimulus money that is soon to slow down still has traders moving to safer havens for money like the U.S. Dollar.

Another dose of cold weather and snow is upon the Corn Belt. Traders will begin to debate the soon increase the risk premium in our grain markets if the weather continues. Most farmers we talk with would like to be in the fields in just 8 weeks.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report had index funds reducing positions in corn by 8,549 contracts, soybeans 3,941, Chicago wheat 5,249 and meal by 952 contracts. Index funds added 357 contracts in Kansas City wheat and 5,623 in oil. On the week, funds were net sellers, reducing positions by -12,701 contracts.

Managed money also reduced positions across the board by a net -49,855 contracts. The speculators sold 19,418 contracts of corn, 10,683 soybeans, 5,420 Chicago wheat, 2,683 KC wheat, 2,534 oil and 9,117 meal.

While index funds trimmed their holding a little and speculators sold a rather sizable position, open interest continues to grow. On the week, newly traded contracts of corn increased 40,974, soybeans 30,500 and Chicago wheat 29,601 contracts.

Spring sure seems a lot further off than optimum planting dates after watching this morning’s news across the country. It will surely warm up and the crop will be planted but this weather pattern looks like it will bring some jitters to the market during the journey to plant this years crop.

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand report are tilted towards smaller corn and soybean ending stocks based on higher demand numbers versus the January report.

Below are traders average guesses:

Jan

Average 09-10 08-09

Guesses Range USDA USDA

Corn 1.748 1.602-1.815 1.764 1.673

Soybeans 0.219 0.170-0.245 0.245 0.138

Wheat 0.973 0.876-1.001 0.976 0.657

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

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Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.55 3/4

+ 4 1/4

9.27

+ 13 1/2

4.78

+ 4 3/4

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

3.88

- 3/4

9.14

+ 4

4.99

- 3 1/4

World Markets

S&P 5001,066.19+0.29% Europe DJ Stoxx2,380.10+0.29% Japan9,951.82-1.05% Hong Kong19,550.89-0.58% China3,150.99-0.07% Taiwan7,215.88+0.04% Australia4,521.40+0.16% Singapore2,693.62+0.37% South Korea203.37-0.82% Bombay15,935.61+0.13% Libor0.25+0.12%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

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Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart

Click here for the full size Corn Chart

Click here for the full size Soybean Chart

Click here for the full size Meal Chart

Click here for the full size Wheat Chart