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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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TV

Andy Shissler, Manager of our Downers Grove, Illinois office appeared on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day over the weekend. You can see U.S. Farm Report and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: http://www.agweb.com/Me

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If you would like to talk with Andy about Roach Ag services, please call him at 630-968-5494.

Travels

Yesterday we cancelled our open meeting in Mason City due to the weather. The school was closed so we were forced to cancel. Today we are creatively working around the snowy streets to hold our roundtable meeting in Iowa Falls, Iowa.

Bring a friend to one of our open public seminars if you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan. If your friend signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.

We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.

We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com

/presentations

At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.

Public Seminars:

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Mahaska County Extension

212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA

From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!

Expo Gardens

1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL

From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Parkland Community College

Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center

2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Travelers Inn

1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN

From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Roundtable Seminars:

In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left

Oskaloosa, IA

Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left

Princeton, IL

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Ottawa, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Clinton, IL

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Lincoln, IL

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Kokomo, IN

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Monticello, IL

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Lebanon, IN

Sell Signals

We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets

No change in our advice. Our plans to hold on sales until spring time Sell Signals remains the same. Buying weakness ahead of reports to insure today’s prices is smart. Just one look at our charts to the right tells you we are just one step of bullish news away from a potential change in trends. We have been writing the livestock producers should be covering feed needs. Make sure you have it done.

If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.

Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar has weakened into this morning’s overnight trading session. I think traders and economists are waiting to hear how the leaders in European governments like Greece and Spain plan to solve the issues. Has the market over reacted or just postured itself for a longer string of bad news is hard to say at this point.

Corn and soybean export inspections eased a bit this week, with corn at 27.1 million bushels, down 12.3 million bushels from last week, and beans at 39.6 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from last week. Cumulative corn inspections are running ahead of last year but not by much. For soybeans, 978 million bushels for the marketing year remains on a record pace.

Traders looking for smaller U.S. ending stocks in corn and soybeans got what they wanted in this morning’s “February USDA World Supply and Demand Report”. The USDA pushed demand numbers in corn ethanol and feed higher which was enough to offset slightly lower exports. As expected, soybean crush and exports were both adjusted higher to reflect ongoing strong demand. Wheat demand was adjusted lower as competition for U.S. wheat remains a major obstacle in today’s wheat prices.

To summarize our thoughts after today’s report: No Sell Signal = No selling. We see no reason to change our views after this mornings report.

Here is what the USDA had to say:

USDA February 9, 2010 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)

Ave

Guess2-9-101-10-10Last YrCorn1.7481.7191.7641.673Beans0.2190.2100.2450.138Wheat0.9730.9810.9760.657

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 5 million bushels higher this month reflecting an increase in expected imports.

Imports are raised based on expected shipments of South American and European feed quality wheat into the southeastern U.S. market. Exports of all wheat are unchanged, but by-class adjustments include a 10-million-bushel increase in hard red winter wheat and 5-million-bushel decreases in both hard red spring and durum wheat. The projected marketing-year average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $4.75 to $4.95 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 1.4 million tons higher reflecting production increases for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina production is raised 1.0 million tons as abundant, late-season rains raised harvested area and yields in key eastern growing areas. Ukraine production is increased 0.4 million tons as the latest revisions to state statistical committee estimates boost yields, more than offsetting a small reduction in harvested area.

Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are both raised this month mostly reflecting higher expected shipments for Argentina and increased regional trade for Turkey. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for Argentina with larger supplies and recently more favorable government policies toward exports. Exports for Turkey are raised 0.3 million tons reflecting stronger shipments to other countries in the region. Partly offsetting are reductions of 0.5 million tons and 0.2 million tons, respectively, for Pakistan and Uruguay exports. Imports are raised 0.7 million tons for Afghanistan and 0.5 million tons for Turkey. Imports are raised 0.4 million tons for Uzbekistan. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton import reduction for Pakistan.

Global wheat consumption for 2009/10 is raised 1.1 million tons mostly on higher feeding in Canada and increased food use in Afghanistan. Higher consumption mostly offsets this month’s increase in world production with projected global ending stocks rising 0.3 million tons.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 45 million bushels lower this month with higher expected corn use and sorghum exports.

Corn used for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels higher reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Agency. November’s record ethanol production was up 3 percent from the previous record in October as higher prices for ethanol and distillers grains boosted ethanol producer returns. November-December corn use for ethanol was up 16 percent from the same period in 2008/09. Although returns have declined since November, recently lower corn prices continue to support profitability for ethanol producers. A 5-million-bushel reduction in expected corn use for sweeteners partly offsets the increase for ethanol.

Corn exports for 2009/10 are projected 50 million bushels lower on increased competition from Argentina.

Ending stocks are projected 45 million bushels lower. The projected marketing-year average farm price for corn is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $3.95 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2009/10 is projected 1.6 million tons higher this month with higher Argentina corn production only partly offset by lower EU-27 corn production and lower Ukraine barley and oats production. Argentina corn production is raised 2.2 million tons with higher expected yields and harvested area as growing conditions continue to improve with additional rainfall in the main corn areas. Late planting and short-term heat stress in the western growing areas temper prospects as a substantial portion of the growing season is still ahead. EU-27 corn production is lowered 0.4 million tons on downward revisions to area for Italy. Ukraine barley and oats production are each lowered 0.2 million tons reflecting the latest revisions to state statistical committee estimates. A number of small, offsetting revisions are made for Russia coarse grains production.

Global coarse grain imports and exports for 2009/10 are both raised slightly this month. The reduction in U.S. corn exports is more than offset by a 1.5-million-ton increase for Argentina. Sorghum imports are raised for Japan and Mexico with the increase in U.S. sorghum exports. Other major trade changes this month include a 0.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 barley exports and a 0.5-million-ton increase in Turkey barley exports. Global coarse grain consumption is increased 3.4 million tons this month with higher corn and sorghum use more than offsetting a reduction for barley. Higher corn use for ethanol in the United States and higher corn feeding in Argentina account for most of the increase. Sorghum feeding is raised for Australia, Japan, and Mexico. Barley feeding is lowered for Australia, Iran, Turkey, and Ukraine. Global coarse grain ending stocks are projected 1.0 million tons lower with a 2.1-million-ton reduction for corn partly offset by a 1.1-million-ton increase for barley.

OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are reduced to 210 million bushels, down 35 million from last month due to increased exports and crush.

Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 1.400 billion as export shipments continue to exceed earlier projections. Although a record South American harvest is expected to reach the market in coming weeks, tight old-crop South American supplies resulting from last year=s historic drought in Argentina continue to support U.S. exports.

Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.720 billion reflecting a strong soybean meal exports and a lower soybean meal extraction rate.

Soybean oil stocks are projected higher this month as the increased crush more than offsets a small reduction in the soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil used for methyl ester is unchanged this month despite reduced production due to the loss of the $1.00 per gallon blending credit at the end of December. The recent Environmental Protection Agency announcement of final rules for the 2009 and 2010 biodiesel mandates is expected to result in offsetting production gains through the end of the 2009/10 marketing year.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008/09 is projected at $8.70 to $10.20 per bushel, down 20 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $270 to $320 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price is projected at 33.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 433.7 million tons, up 2.1 million from last month.

Global soybean production is raised 1.6 million tons to 255 million tons. Improved production prospects for South America account for most of the change. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 66 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to higher yields. Soybean production is also raised for Paraguay and Uruguay. Global sunflower seed production is projected higher due to gains for Ukraine and Russia. Global rapeseed production is raised this month due to a larger projected crop for EU-27.

Global oilseed trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 96.3 million tons, mainly due to increased soybean imports for China and Egypt. Higher global oilseed crush mainly reflects increased rapeseed crush in Canada, China, and EU-27. Global oilseed stocks are mostly unchanged at 71.1 million tons.

Click here for the FCStone USDA Highlights

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

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Front Month Futures

Mar ‘10 Corn

Mar ‘10 Beans

Mar ‘10 Wheat

3.59

+ 3

9.38 1/2

+ 9

4.86

+ 2

New Crop 2010

Dec ‘10 Corn

Nov ‘10 Beans

July ‘10 Wheat

3.94 1/2

+ 3 1/2

9.22

+ 7 1/2

5.12 1/4

+ 3/4

World Markets

S&P 5001,056.74-0.88% Europe DJ Stoxx2,671.43+0.26% Japan9,932.90-0.19% Hong Kong19,790.28+1.22% China3,169.19+0.58% Taiwan7,361.04+2.01% Australia4,505.10-0.36% Singapore2,745.02+1.91% South Korea206.01+1.30% Bombay16,042.18+0.67% Libor0.25+0.12%

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