John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

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Brian Roach will have an exclusive interview with Joe Prusacki, Director of the Statistics Division of the National Agricultural Statistics Service directly following the release of tomorrow’s USDA Supply & Demand and Stocks in All Positions Reports.

If you watched our September webinar with Joe, you already know how knowledgeable Joe is on the subject of USDA reports. He is the man in charge and we are excited to be able to bring his insight to you.

After we conduct our interview, we will email you a link so you can listen to it in its entirety at your leisure.

Soybeans are now in the 12th day of an extended Sell Signal.

Corn will be in the 13th day of a Sell Signal.

We have strongly encouraged sales on the latest rallies in corn, soybeans and wheat. Current futures and cash markets are now back to the best values offered on this peak so if you are looking at $6.00 corn in the bin and wondering how to take some risk off the farm, consider moving a few more bushels on the nearby, May or July contracts.

Ahead of the USDA report on Thursday, be sure you have things tidy regarding sales and cash flow for upcoming February bills. Historically, the past 11 of 14 USDA Dec 1 stocks reports has had at least a 25 cent move in corn on report day and those are not always higher.

Our plan this year is to make all the grain sales you want to get done in 2012 on the current and next series of Sell Signals. We would like to be done with all sales by mid-July. We see no reason to make any sales when we are not in a Sell Signal.+

The Dollar index is higher this morning as Europe’s financial situation has darkened as banks continue to hold large sums of cheap ECB loan money instead of making it available. As credit tightens and huge rounds of bonds renew, ideas of solvency come back to the headlines.

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Rain is falling in a broader area than previously forecasted in Argentina’s Corn Belt. The driest areas of Cordoba and Santa Fe are receiving ¼” to 1 1/2” rains but temperatures remain very hot and more importantly, extended forecasts appear just as hot. Noted in today’s weather updates, average daytime temps are as much as 15 F higher than the last drought in 2008. Average nighttime highs remain in the 80’s F. Traders are pricing in ideas of crops getting past the point of too little, too late to revive or claw back yields. Click here to view drought charts.

Until a pattern change in weather is detected in the longer range maps, the bottom line is a very severe moisture deficit remains for the growing season, more so for Argentine growing regions and to a lesser degree, Brazil. Extended forecasts remain dry for Southern Brazil as well, but not before rains (up to 2-4” in some spots) move through from now until the end of the weekend.

Thursday’s crop production and Dec 1 stocks report estimates are included in today’s Daily Grain Plan, Click here to view. As most traders have taken to the idea the corn crop will continue to get smaller while soybean yield estimates are flat to December’s 43.7 bu/acre. If corn production numbers don’t fall in line or beat the street number of 146.4 bu/acre, we could be disappointed in trade action if the USDA decides the crop is not as small.

Considering futures prices have increased 70 cents for corn and $1.22 for soybeans on the latest rally, the idea we trade lots higher will require a large revision downward in 2011 production numbers and or smaller Dec 1 stock numbers, suggesting we have seen the lowest demand numbers for feed and exports.

Looking at corn demand numbers for the 1st quarter, we can expect stronger ethanol numbers based on big weekly demand over the past 6 weeks. Exports are weak and deserve to be adjusted lower but weather in S. America will probably keep the USDA from adjusting exports at this point. This leaves feed/ residual numbers to analyze. With slightly larger animal numbers versus last year (Cattle on feed up 5%, hogs up 1.5% but broilers were down 6%), we might expect feed numbers have found a bottom and could be held flat or revised upward if the USDA takes a positive note on U.S. economic outlooks.

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Ukraine’s Farm Minister estimated the country’s 2012 grain harvest at 44-46 million tonnes this morning, down from a record 56.4 MMT in 2011; wheat production was seen at 12 MMT this year, down from 22.4 MMT in 2011. UkrAgroConsult had pegged the new harvest at 44.7 MMT earlier this week, with wheat at 14.5 MMT. The Ag Min reported 80% of wheat area as sprouted by the end of Dec, down from 93% on the same date last year, with 66% of those sprouted crops in good/satisfactory condition and 34% marked as poor.

Our trip to Rome and the Greek Islands is nearly sold out. Click here to see the brochure. Call Audrey at 866-403-2756 or email: Audrey.Lerner@CruiseTravel-N-More.com for more details.

Click here for Soybeans

Click here for Wheat