Text Only Version
Travels
Thursday, February 25th John Roach will be working with Woofter Construction and Irrigation in Colby, Kansas. John will be speaking at the Comfort Inn Convention Center, located at exit 53 on I-70. The program begins at 3:30 PM, is free and open to the public, but you must register in advance. Please call Shannon at 785-462-7441 to reserve a seat.
Sell Signals
Beans rallied sharply then fell like a stone. After all of that, beans are still in a Sell Signal and this is day number 5.
Bean prices have certainly been volatile recently. We should probably expect that volatility to continue with plenty of selling over the top of the market. South American harvest is well underway and producers there have lots to sell.
On this Sell Signal we want to sell old crop beans out of the bin, new crop 2010 beans, and small pieces of any crop year beyond.
During our recent seminars we encouraged farmers to sell more of their 2010 crops than normal and to be willing to price pieces of distant years’ crops during this spring’s Sell Season. Farmers’ are concerned about inflation however and it is keeping them from making sales. Today we heard from two of those concerned farmers who sent us these well written notes.
Levi from Iowa expressed his worry about inflation and optimism about demand when he asked, “You talk about selling out farther than just 2010 crop. How much and how far out should we look at selling especially with volatile input prices? If we can’t lock in inputs why should we be capping our income already, even when prices aren’t all that high? Or do you recommend buying future positions and work as a speculator?
You also talk about surpluses and prices coming down. Do you foresee prices coming down with added demand, China’s population and demand for protein, ethanol, and decreasing acres of farmland? Yes yields are increasing, but isn’t our demand and with that won’t prices at least stay relatively stable if we can call this market stable. I’ve been a subscriber for almost a year now and have used your sell singles accordingly and have been successful. I also appreciate the daily reports they are very informative and easy to digest. Just looking for a little more insight and your thoughts.
Myron from Nebraska said “I just told my son yesterday, who farms with me how following your marketing plan using sell signals to make sales has taken a lot of stress out of marketing and seems to work fairly well as I become more familiar and comfortable with it, but then this morning you talk of marketing some of the crop of 2011, 2012 in February of 2010.
I always thought the first and most important basic of marketing anything was to know your cost of production. It seems to me that if you don’t at least have an idea of that number, you are moving more towards speculation rather than good sound marketing. With inputs what they are even now, a sizable shift in interest rates alone could make a major difference, much more than in the distant past. Just puzzled me a little when I thought I had you strategy somewhat figured out.”
.
We are actually making the same recommendation we have made for years. We always encourage producers to look out further for sales opportunities during our Selling Season. We especially like making those distant sales on extended Sell Signals. Producers who routinely sell crops 2 or 3 years ahead usually keep those sales relatively small because of the uncertainty of costs.
The problem might be that producers are more optimistic about grain prices next fall than we are. Certainly Chinese soybean demand is growing and is expected to set a new record this season at 42.5 million tons, but this year the world soybean production is up over 43 million tons. This year’s soybean crop increase is bigger than the total annual Chinese imports.
World coarse grain stocks are expected to be tighter than bean stocks just before you begin harvest in 2010, but wheat stocks will be big. When you add world coarse grains and wheat stocks together (which is the right thing to do because many areas of the world feed both) the combined stocks will be big (and have been growing) this fall.
We only encourage sales in future years when the prices make sense on your farm. Now is the time for you to think about what prices make sense to you. Estimate your costs for 2010 and beyond using big yields. Yields are going up – don’t use your past 5-year average. Decide what prices would make sense on your farm.
How many bushels would you sell at that minimum price on the 10th day of a Sell Signal, the 15th day and the 20th day? What would be your second acceptable price level? It is much better to make those decisions (and write them down) now in the calm of winter than in the heat of battle when you are busy and markets get exciting.
It is a mistake to dismiss sales of distant years’ crops because of the uncertainties involved. You will be selling corn and beans in all the years where there are futures trading. Decide what prices you are willing to take. It is OK to make sales of distant years at prices that make sense to you during Sell Signals between March and June. In fact, we recommend it.
After speaking with several hundred farmers in the past month, we think many farmers are too bullish on prices and too concerned about inflation.
Markets
Yesterday’s strength in the U.S. Dollar driven by weak consumer confidence is steering grain markets lower. The trend still appears to be higher although bulls are still looking for more upside news.
The grain markets’ February lows look solid and up-trends have begun albeit in a very volatile way. We believe funds will buy their longs back and South American farmers will sell their record large crops. In addition everybody will step up their worry about how much snow is covering the fields and how cold it is everywhere.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To Manage Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.70 3/4
+ 3.0
9.57
+ 4 1/2
4.91 1/2
- 1/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
4.05 3/4
+ 2 3/4
9.30 3/4
+ 3 1/2
5.17 3/4
- 1/2
World Markets
S&P 5001,094.60-1.21%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,732.05+1.48%
Japan10,198.83-1.48%
Hong Kong20,467.74-0.75%
China3,244.48+1.43%
Taiwan7,529.67-0.89%
Australia4,648.50-1.48%
Singapore2,762.14-0.73%
South Korea210.92-1.19%
Bombay16,255.97-0.19%
Libor0.250.00%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Sell Signal
This is Brian Roach with a Sell Signal alert on soybeans.
Prices have increased since last weeks decline, giving us back a Sell Signal on soybeans that we encourage our clients to sell. We are treating this as a continuation of last week’s Sell Signal.
We are advising our customers to sell an increment of old and new crop soybeans on this peak.
Plan to space out your sales across 4-5 days as our plan recommends.
As a part of our annual service package we will notify you by our automated phone system when each of the three crops we cover go into a Sell Signal. We have our indicators set to generate 10 to 12 Sell Signals per year for each crop. Since most market peaks occur in the spring, we will help you make most of your sales on the Sell Signals that occur during our Selling Season of March, April, May, and June. But we know that bills come due every month and we want you to sell on Sell Signals and avoid selling when there is not so we notify you with our automated phone system every time a Sell Signal begins.
If you did not get our Sell Signal phone call alert at the phone number you prefer, please reply to this email with the number you want us to use. If you do not want to get phone alerts when there is a Sell Signal or just want the alert for the one or two grains you produce, just reply to this email with your wishes.
John
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
Thursday, February 25th John Roach will be working with Woofter Construction and Irrigation in Colby, Kansas. John will be speaking at the Comfort Inn Convention Center, located at exit 53 on I-70. The program begins at 3:30 PM, is free and open to the public, but you must register in advance. Please call Shannon at 785-462-7441 to reserve a seat.
Sell Signals
Beans moved back into a Sell Signal in overnight trade. We treat this as the continuation of last week’s Sell Signal. This is day number 4 of this bean Sell Signal.
Resume making soybean sales. On this Sell Signal we want to sell old crop beans out of the bin, new crop 2010 beans, and small pieces of any crop year beyond.
During our recent seminars we encouraged farmers to sell more of their 2010 crops than normal and pieces of distant years’ crops. Farmers’ largest concern voiced about making sales, was their worry about inflation.
Quite frankly we think farmers are too worried about inflation. The greater worry should be over production driving crop prices down not inflation driving inputs up. How many times in your history of farming has inflation been the reason profits have turned to losses on the farm? For many it has really happened only once…..in 2008.
We believe the bigger concern about profits on the farm should be, “I worry that strong profitability and a positive grain outlook has brought increasing amounts of capital to agricultural production around the world.” Capital investments are increasing acreage in South America and increasing yields in the former Soviet Union countries. We are headed toward surplus supplies as fast as Mother Nature will allow. Every farmer in the world is working as hard as he or she can spending more money than ever to create those surpluses.
We am not trying to get anybody to rush out and sell everything. Quite the contrary, our thought is spacing out sales over the spring Sell Signals will be the right approach this spring as it has been for the vast majority of the past 30 years. But, too many farmers are telling me they are afraid to make 2010 sales let alone anything beyond because they are so worried about inflation.
Our advice is to worry less about inflation and more about over production and lower prices. Don’t fail to get your sales made this spring.
Markets
Actively managed funds liquidated nearly all of their long futures and option positions during January and early February. Yet, for several years running, managed funds made lots of money getting long when up-trends began in the late winter. Why shouldn’t we expect them to do the same thing this year?
The grain markets’ February lows look solid and up-trends have begun. Now trends have turned solidly higher and we believe they will buy their longs back using any and all bullish factors to bet on higher prices.
Private analysts Celeres reported the 2009/10 Brazilian soybean harvest at 18% done this week, ahead of the 5 year average of 10% at the same time of year due to early harvest. Heavy rains have slowed harvest progress over the past 2 weeks which may hurt some yields in medium maturity growing regions. Forward sales of the crop reached 30% this week, up two points on the week, but 4% behind the same week last year and 14% behind the 5 year average.
Yesterdays corn export inspections were strong at 34.2 million bushels. Cumulative inspections of 756.4 million bushels are still at a rate just 13 million bushels ahead of last year with about half the marketing year gone.
Soybean inspections posted weak numbers at 35 million bushels on the week. Cumulative soybean inspections of 1.059 Billion bushels remain on record pace.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To Manage Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.70 1/4
- 1 1/4
9.62
+ 1/2
4.99
- 5 1/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
4.06 1/4
- 1 3/4
9.32 1/2
- 3 1/4
5.22 3/4
- 5
World Markets
S&P 5001,108.01-0.10%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,765.27-0.46%
Japan10,352.10-0.47%
Hong Kong20,623.00+1.21%
China3,198.63-1.07%
Taiwan7,597.44+0.49%
Australia4,718.30+0.02%
Singapore2,782.55+0.91%
South Korea213.45+0.08%
Bombay16,286.32+0.30%
Libor0.25-0.09%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
Thursday, February 25th John Roach will be working with Woofter Construction and Irrigation in Colby, Kansas. John will be speaking at the Comfort Inn Convention Center, located at exit 53 on I-70. The program begins at 3:30 PM and is free and open to the public, but you must register in advance. Please call Shannon at 785-462-7441 to reserve a seat.
Sell Signals
There are no Sell Signals in our grain markets.
Friday I wrote about how frustrating selling grain can be when Sell Signals don’t work exactly the way we hope. Unfortunately whatever tools we use to help us to decide when to make sales, there will be times when the tool lets us down. Or because we are optimistic about prices we can choose to “go slow” on sales when we should have followed our plan and pulled the trigger.
Maybe just maybe the markets will vindicate my go slow approach on last week’s soybean Sell Signal. Today markets feel much better than they did Friday morning. Instead of continuing lower, prices have rebounded nicely.
Beans broke right down to the green line 20-day moving average and it held. I found during our seminars that describing the green line as a “wall holding prices in their existing trend” helped people understand the concept and importance of the 20-day moving average. Prices can bang against the wall or even break through it, but watch price action carefully because it is a very big clue as to trend changes and future price moves.
If prices are above the average price of the past 20 days (the green line on the charts is the 20-day moving average) the market is in an uptrend. When prices are in an uptrend, technical traders will try to be buyers instead of sellers. This is very important right now because the big professional speculative funds sold out their long positions from early January through early February. If the trends turn back up, they will buy back everything they sold.
Most of the big fund managers use a computer program to dictate if they are buyers or sellers. The computer program uses a proprietary formula to call the shots but the premise is to get with the trend.
Beans threatened to break down through their green line last Friday but prices quickly rebounded after the test of support. Overnight beans moved up well away from their green line 20-day moving average.
The corn market broke down through its green line, but prices could not stay down. Overnight the corn price cleared the green line with power and anybody who was a seller at the end of last week has a loss this morning.
The wheat charts do not give quite as clear of picture but overnight prices moved back above the green line.
I think there is a good chance the next Sell Signals may come soon. When markets breakdown and can’t make downside progress as in the case of corn and wheat, or can’t even get below the green line as in the case of beans I get encouraged. What happened at the end of last week seems to have trapped the bears instead of scared out the bulls.
Our Selling Season begins next month – get ready.
Markets
The U.S. Dollar eased back a bit overnight which helped grain prices move higher.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed that actively managed funds came back as buyers in the grains during the week ended last Tuesday. The funds were long 409,000 option and futures contracts of grains on January 2nd and sold down to only 22,000 longs by February 6th. Last week they bought nearly 53,000 contracts. We have been counting on their buying to take us up to Sell Signals and it was exactly what happened last week.
For several years running managed funds have made lots of money following the up-trends that began in the winter. Why shouldn’t we expect them to do the same thing this year? The grain markets look like February lows are more solid than they appeared on Friday and up-trends are beginning. We think the funds are likely to buy back everything they sold in January.
During the month ended February 6th, index funds accumulated 120,000 contracts of grain and commercial grain companies covered 293,000 contracts of shorts as they sold cash inventories to users. Last week commercials sold 62,000 contracts as producers sold grain and their buyers hedged by going short.
Friday afternoon’s monthly Cattle on Feed report showed the February 1 on feed total at 97.4% of last year, January placements at 98.2%, and January marketing at 102.1%. All numbers were within pre-report estimates but will likely be taken as price negative for the deferred months.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To Manage Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.65
+ 5
9.52 3/4
+ 7 3/4
4.92 1/2
+ 2 3/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
4.02 1/4
+ 4
9.32 1/2
+ 6 1/2
5.18 3/4
+ 2
World Markets
S&P 5001,109.17+0.21%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,793.83+0.01%
Japan10,400.47+2.74%
Hong Kong20,377.27+2.43%
China3,233.34-0.55%
Taiwan7,560.04+1.59%
Australia4,717.50+1.78%
Singapore2,757.46+0.01%
South Korea213.28+2.19%
Bombay16,237.05+0.28%
Libor0.25+0.09%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
At 10:00 this morning we will be conducting this tour’s final round table seminar at the Warehouse Sports Bar, 1206 W. South St, Lebanon, Indiana.
Thursday, February 25th John Roach will be working with Woofter Construction and Irrigation in Colby, Kansas. John will be speaking at the Comfort Inn Convention Center, located at exit 53 on I-70. The program begins at 3:30 PM and is free and open to the public, but you must register in advance. Please call Shannon at 785-462-7441 to reserve a seat.
Sell Signals
Overnight we lost the soybean Sell Signal. Meanwhile both corn and wheat backed away from what looked like a certain Sell Signals just 3 days ago.
Today we are still frustrated about the January bean Sell Signal that we nearly had, but didn’t quite get. We are further frustrated about the corn Sell Signal we didn’t quite get this week. Even the bean Sell Signal we got this week ran out of gas in 3 days when it really should have lasted longer than normal…..the way I had it figured.
During this round of seminars we have been analyzing the corn market and bean market Sell Signals for the past 6 years during our presentation. Sell Signals worked very well in each of the past 6 years corn market and 5 out of the last 6 bean markets. In 2007 beans moved higher all summer and every spring sale turned out to be cheap.
When looking at those charts (for the 16th time in the last 3 weeks) last night, we can easily see that Sell Signals are frequently less than perfect. If you go to our web-site www.roachag.com and look at the last slides from our cruise presentation you can see those charts.
Many times during the 12 markets we examined we just about got a Sell Signal but didn’t. Many times Sell Signals lasted 2, 3, or 4 times their normal 4 to 6 days in length. Yet through it all, we were able to get really good sales made during the spring. In 11 out of 12 examples those sales proved to be surprisingly good by the August September lows.
In other words don’t sweat these markets right now. It is February and we don’t expect to plant this month or get good prices. Our Selling Season begins next month. That is when we expect to get a chance to sell at prices that look good in August and September.
Oh sure I wanted a perfect Sell Signal on beans but we didn’t get it. And we all learned again why we should make sales on the first day of a Sell Signal. Sorry I didn’t give you better leadership on this one. I don’t know what I was thinking when I said to go slow…… But, history shows us that we can relax because we will likely have several more chances to make sales during the next 5 months.
Beans could not be held down below the green line 20-day moving average last night which again should encourage trend following speculators to reduce their short positions and accumulate long positions.
Corn staged a reversal which is also a positive performance in view of the strong Dollar.
Markets
The U.S. Dollar exploded higher starting late yesterday and continuing overnight. Traders believe the Fed signaled yesterday that the long slow process of increasing interest rates is about to begin. In addition the rhetoric of non-cooperation between countries coming out of Europe chased traders to the Dollar.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To Manage Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.56 3/4
- 1/2
9.42
- 6
4.82
- 3
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.94 1/4
- 1
9.23 1/2
- 7 3/4
5.09
- 3 1/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,106.75+0.65%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,768.61-0.34%
Japan10,123.58-2.05%
Hong Kong19,894.02-2.59%
China3,251.280.00Taiwan7,441.840.00Australia4,634.76-0.43%
Singapore2,757.14-0.44%
South Korea208.70-1.81%
Bombay16,191.63-0.83%
Libor0.25+0.27%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
We are down to our last 2 seminars. We still have space for the public seminar in Kokomo, Indiana tonight and for the round table discussion tomorrow in Lebanon, Indiana.
Call our office at 800-622-7628 if you would like more information or to register. Our Midwest tour has been very successful and we thank all of you who have come out to see our “road show!”
Sell Signals
We are in day three of a soybean Sell Signal but it is slipping. With yesterday’s lower trade the market backed away from the Sell Signal in corn.
Beans are still trading well above the green line 20-day moving average which should encourage trend following speculators to reduce their short positions and accumulate long positions. On the other side the U.S. Dollar is inching higher causing other spec traders to sell all commodities.
Selling strength during Sell Signals is always the right thing to do, but should we also be selling when prices turn down like yesterday? I am reluctant to sell lower prices but I am certainly disappointed in the grain markets’ performance.
Warren from Nebraska asked, “What is the deal with soybean sell signal? On Jan. 5 the price was $10.68 you had no sell signal or I just remember one. You said hold on the price is going to get lower but it will come back. Now the price is $9.65 and you send out a sell signal. Why didn’t we have a sell signal when the price was over a dollar higher? The price has come back but not to the early Jan. levels and now you say sell. Why sell now and not then?”
Our Sell Signals are determined by a math formula. The price charts we show each day plot the results of that formula with a blue line and red line on the bottom of each price chart. By definition, both lines (or numbers if you look at the raw data) must be above 75 to trigger a Sell Signal. On January 6th the lines peaked at 78.92 and 74.02, just short of a Sell Signal. We didn’t quite get a Sell Signal before China tightened their lending standards and started prices lower.
We really wanted to make sales in January and talked a lot about getting comfortable and having solid 2010 sales on the books. But we never got the numbers we needed to issue a bean Sell Signal in January. We had been very aggressive on our sales earlier and thought we could be patient waiting for the lines to get over 75. In hindsight, we should have broken our rules and issued a Sell Signal without the numbers being met. But, we didn’t and then the USDA gave us a negative report and the rest is history.
These times when things don’t go as planned keep us humble. At least we had you thinking about selling and not buying. And I have been told by many subscribers during our trip that they made sales even though we never issued a Sell Signal phone call.
We never know what the markets are going to do and never know if the next Sell Signal will come at a higher or lower price than the last one. We don’t believe anybody is smart enough to forecast where prices are going to be in a month or two. We use our tools as best we can knowing that sometimes they won’t give us the Sell Signal we want. And other times the Sell Signal will last longer than normal.
Remember our Sell Signal is just a tool. As prices move near to a Sell Signal, feel free to go ahead and make sales that make sense on your farm. The more anxious you are about getting sales made, the more willing you should be to start a little early. You have the management responsibility to adapt all the marketing ideas you follow to your own business situation. We personalize our service and recommendations for our consulting customers, which is a service you might consider, but we stick close to our marketing plan and rulebook in our Daily Grain Plan.
Meanwhile, we do have a Sell Signal in beans today. Look for opportunities to sell something.
How will the prices we have available today look in the rearview mirror? Most years sales made in the first half of the year look pretty good by late summer.
Markets
The U.S. Dollar continues to move higher putting pressure on commodities. European debt worries continue to fuel the strength.
Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated the 2009-10 corn harvest at 19 to 21 million tons yesterday, its first production estimate of the year, and nearly 50% larger than last year’s 13.1 million ton output. Planted area is down 7% this year to 3.25 million hectares, but yields are much higher. The Ag Ministry’s estimate is the largest of the current range of estimates which run from 17.2 million tons (the current USDA figure) up to 19.5 million tons.
French analyst Strategie Grains raised their 2010-11 European Union soft wheat crop estimate by another one million tons this morning, now at 134.7 million tons, up 4 percent from 2009-10. They left the door open for as much as a 5 million ton increase given favorable weather conditions throughout the crop cycle. Corn production for 2010-11 was shaved by 100,000 tons to 57.7 million tons, still 2% above the 2009-10 crop.
January NOPA soybean crush came in at 162.4 million bushels yesterday, slightly above the average trade estimate of 161.8 million bushels and well above 139.1 million bushels from last January, but down from 164.4 million bushels in December.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.58 1/2
- 1 1/2
9.51 3/4
+ 1/4
4.92
- 2 3/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.95 1/4
- 1 1/2
9.32
+ 1/4
5.19
- 3
World Markets
S&P 5001,099.51+0.42%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,757.62-0.16%
Japan10,335.69+0.28%
Hong Kong20,422.15-0.54%
China3,251.280.00Taiwan7,441.840.00Australia4,654.76-0.28%
Singapore2,769.19-0.89%
South Korea212.55-0.42%
Bombay16,327.84-0.62%
Libor0.25+0.25%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
Public Seminars:
Today we are in Champaign Illinois at:
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Travelers Inn
1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
North Iowa Area Community College
Beem Forum
500 College Drive, Mason City, IA 50401
From 2 p.m. – 4 p.m. CST
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – Sold Out
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We are in day two of a soybean Sell Signal and are getting close to one in corn.
Yesterday the bulls stepped into the soybean market alongside strong energies pushing us firmly into a soybean Sell Signal. Trend following spec funds have enough ammo to support a rally as strong basis and good demand are giving them early bullish trading ideas. Old crop basis in many areas has strengthened, bringing cash prices in some closer to price levels seen earlier this year.
It is still early. Ideas about why we could have higher prices have not unfolded yet and it will likely take more time and more Sell Signals to see how things play out. Most years we find the period of March – June the best months to market grain but this year we sold soybeans early and aggressively and now we can be patient. Current prices are less appealing than earlier sales but we want to remember the game is about average prices. How do sales look after you average them in and what will be the net result on the farm? Our advice is to reward the rally with sales but space them out and keep dribbling out grain during this Sell Signal.
Look for opportunities to sell something. Old crop soybean cash prices are worth a good look and basis in new crop in some areas we know is seasonally stronger than normal. If you are selling to buyers who are offering you a better deal than normal, don’t be afraid to get some locked in. Many of our customers wait for seasonal strength in basis, locked it in and then later price the futures on Sell Signals the following spring. Whatever your flavor, just get something done and space your sales out.
Matt from Iowa asked, “Is there a sell signal on new crop beans, too? I see the chart is only for March 2010 beans.”
We always use the delivery month with the biggest volume of trade to determine the Sell Signal for every delivery month. Yesterday’s bean Sell Signal was for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 beans. Did you know you could sell beans that far out. Write down the prices, they range from $9.41 to $9.61. My bet is that a $9.50 sale in each of those years will look good during harvest 2010.
The corn market will likely bring us a Sell Signal today if markets follow through on yesterdays move and our ideas about selling corn are nearly the same as soybeans. If you are eager to sell corn, wait for our alert to get started but space out those sales. If you are worried about corn going out of condition, this will be your window to get some sold.
How will the sales we have available today look in the rearview mirror? Most years we find sales in the first half of the year always look better 8-9 months later.
Markets
Yesterday the U.S. Dollar traded lower back down to support levels partially supporting higher grain prices. Today the Dollar is unchanged. Bank talk in Europe and government spending seems to blanket the nightly television with the same stuff.
Seasonality is upon us. Each year we are rewarded with a Selling Season created mostly by the fear and influence of how Mother Nature will treat the crop. Favorable and unfavorable, worrisome and not so worrisome, big deal and not so big a deal. They end up giving us Sell Signals to price grain regardless of why the markets are higher. Don’t fret about it. Higher prices will have all kinds of reasons why but don’t get caught up in why.
Nobody in Chicago is looking out for your farm profits. It is actually quite the opposite. Spec traders and large funds have their own objectives that give our world of farmers a chance to sell grain on higher prices. Get more grain sold on your farm during our Selling Season, and most years, you will make more money.
Get ready to make sales, we will call you when we get the Sell Signal. Go slow with your sales this week unless you are really anxious to get grain out of the bin or money into your checkbook.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.66 1/2
- 3/4
9.61 1/4
- 4 1/4
5.02 1/2
- 2 1/2
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
4.02 1/2
- 1/4
9.38 1/2
- 2 1/2
5.30
- 2 1/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,094.87+1.80%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,770.93+1.84%
Japan10,306.83+2.72%
Hong Kong20,534.01+1.31%
China3,251.280.00Taiwan7,441.840.00Australia4,667.90+2.19%
Singapore2,794.06+1.27%
South Korea213.44+1.77%
Bombay16,428.91+1.25%
Libor0.25+0.25%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Sell Signal
This is Sam Lerner of Roach Ag Marketing with the first day of a Sell Signal alert on soybeans.
We continue to expect higher springtime prices and want to go slow with the sales on old and new crop soybeans this week and become more aggressive as prices move higher.
Our Sell Signals normally last 4 to 6 days so space out your sales.
As a part of our annual service package we will notify you by our automated phone system when each of the three crops we cover go into a Sell Signal. We have our indicators set to generate 10 to 12 Sell Signals per year for each crop. Since most market peaks occur in the spring, we will help you make most of your sales on the Sell Signals that occur during our Selling Season of March, April, May, and June. But we know that bills come due every month and we want you to sell on Sell Signals and avoid selling when there is not so we notify you with our automated phone system every time a Sell Signal begins.
If you did not get our Sell Signal phone call alert at the phone number you prefer, please reply to this email with the number you want us to use. If you do not want to get phone alerts when there is a Sell Signal or just want the alert for the one or two grains you produce, just reply to this email with your wishes.
John
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
Public Seminars:
Today we are in Peoria, IL working with Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM – at:
Expo Gardens
1601 W. Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL
From 8:30 am to 11:00 a.m.
Tomorrow we will be at:
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Travelers Inn
1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
North Iowa Area Community College
Beem Forum
500 College Drive, Mason City, IA 50401
From 2 p.m. – 4 p.m. CST
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets, but are very close to getting one in beans and corn.
As you can see from the charts, soybeans are within a day of giving us a Sell Signal if prices don’t fall apart. Beans have inched up above the green line 20-day moving average, but they have not exploded in the process. If we get a show of bullish power we would expect this rally to have some legs. Spec traders liquidated a big portion of their long positions in January and will likely re-purchase beans if the trend continues upward.
The corn market is nearly identical to the bean market also nearing a Sell Signal. Wheat is lagging but making upside progress as well.
The prices we have are disappointing compared to the levels seen in January on the corn and wheat Sell Signals. We were very close (one day away) to getting a bean Sell Signal in January at prices that were also much better. So what does a producer do when prices are disappointing but we get a Sell Signal? Pare back the size of your daily sales and look ahead to see if the distant new crop bids are very close to what there prices were in January. In other words try to find something that makes sense to sell.
We learned years ago that ignoring a Sell Signal during the first half of the year was usually the wrong thing to do when seen through the rearview mirror 8 or 9 months later.
Markets
I see little new to talk about. The big spec traders have been the big sellers of grains and commercials and index funds have been the buyers. Throughout the price decline since the New Year began, open interest in grains has increased over 400,000 contracts. When open interest increases it signals that new buyers and new sellers came to the market place.
With the big specs having liquidated nearly their entire long position, there is plenty of buying power available if the trends turn solidly upward. The big specs have made lots of money being long during spring for several years. Why wouldn’t they get long in 2010 when the trends turn higher?
I know everybody says the South Americans have such a big crop that they will take away our markets when their harvest hits its peak, but I question that. I don’t think they have the transportation to do that. The greater likelihood is that they will be selling for more months than normal and the U.S. will still have to supply beans to satisfy world (Chinese) demand right through the South American harvest.
Get ready to make sales, we will call you when we get the Sell Signal. Go slow with your sales this week unless you are really anxious to get grain out of the bin or money into your checkbook.
January NOPA crush is expected to come in at 161.8 million bu this morning, down from 164.4 mbu in Dec, but well above 139.1 mbu last January.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.64 1/2
+ 3
9.55 3/4
- 10 3/4
4.94 3/4
+ 8 1/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.99 1/2
+ 2 1/4
9.29 1/4
+ 7 1/4
5.21 1/4
+ 7 1/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,075.51-0.27%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,687.71+0.14%
Japan10,034.25+0.21%
Hong Kong20,268.690.00China3,251.280.00Taiwan7,441.840.00Australia4,567.80+0.49%
Singapore2,758.90+0.19%
South Korea209.73+0.47%
Bombay16,226.68+1.17%
Libor0.250.00
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
After a few weeks of traveling across Iowa and Illinois, we have to look at the calendar to see what day it is and where we are suppose to be. The meetings continue to generate tremendous support and interest while bringing forward many questions about our industry and your own farm related questions.
Today we are in Ottawa, Illinois hosting a roundtable meeting at the Hampton Inn starting at 9:00am.
Good news for those near Mason City! We have rescheduled the public meeting for next month at the same location. Hopefully a date in mid March is safe but who knows – I remember the winter of 72’.
“Rescheduled” Commodity Marketing Seminar
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
North Iowa Area Community College
Beem Forum
500 College Drive
Mason City, IA 50401
2 p.m. – 4 p.m. CST
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Bring a friend to one of our open public seminars if you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan. If your friend signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.
We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled up. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.
We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com/
presentations
At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.
Public Seminars:
Tuesday, February 16th, 2010
Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!
Expo Gardens
1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL
From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Travelers Inn
1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Friday, February 12th, 2010
Ottawa, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets
What you will find when reading our Daily Grain Plan is that the actual days per year we are taking action is rather small. For those that come to our seminars and work with us closely, we show you the number of Sell Signal days per year is only a few out of the entire year. Do the math. Take 4-5 Sell Signals per year times 5 days each = 20-25 days. Some years it is more and some years it could be less but the point is clear. Most of the time we sit and wait, planning and organizing.
Even the most patient sellers get antsy and end up selling grain for piece of mind or to generate cash. Always ok by us, but try to push as many of your sales to the first half of the year on our Sell Signals as possible. For those who have come to our seminars this month, we said you have at least $100+/acre of opportunity selling on our Sell Signals versus the annual average and following our advice was right 85% of time over the past 21 years. Today’s market could pay you $200-$300/acre more if volatility creeps back into our grains just as in the past 3 years.
So yes we are boring sometimes, but we find keeping a level heart rate while the world is digesting lots of heartburn keeps us sharper and more ready to take action when the Sell Signal is issued.
*We have ended our advice to get buying needs covered. We will include in our writing when to accumulate feed needs again. Corn and soybean markets have quietly moved up to our green line 20 day moving averages with soybeans the leader, breaking through the green line on Wednesday but retreating right back to the green line this morning. After a long, multi-week reset below the Roach Ag Sell Signal 25 line, prices have drifted into territory we pay close attention.
If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.
Markets
Ahead of a 3 day weekend (Presidents Day on Monday) the U.S. Dollar is trading into this morning’s overnight session very strong. Currency traders are mulling around ideas of the European Union helping out debt laden countries tied to the Euro currency. Who really wants to lend people money, let alone another country? While the noise in Europe continues without answers, the Dollar will be well supported.
Yesterdays grain markets tested the green line 20 day moving averages and failed to move higher. Instead, prices retreated back to the green line and now will look for direction. We could either move higher up off the green line or go back lower, retesting recent lows. In this territory prices are looking for direction and a change in trend.
Good news came in yesterdays Department of Labor report that first time claim for unemployment insurance dropped 40,000 in the week ending February 6 to 440,000. This beat analyst’s estimates of 465,000 by a big margin. Happy Wall street traders bought the Dow Jones up 105 points and also pushed crude oil higher offering some support to the grains but not enough to clear our green line 20 day moving average.
Strength in soybean basis has farmers asking us about soybean cash bids. Tighter stocks and very little selling pushed cash offers within 50 cents of the latest rally in some areas. The question is should you sell? With a big crop in South America upon us and our spring planting ahead of us, we don’t know how much of a rally in futures will support your cash offers. Our advice is to make the sale if you like the price and will not kick yourself otherwise. How will the sale look at the end of year? If you like it, get the sale made.
Our Daily Grain Plan will not be issued on Monday, Presidents Day. Most of us will have extra little helpers around the farm with school aged children and grandchildren having the day off. Enjoy them – they get big real quick.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.60 1/4
- 3
9.33 1/4
- 9 3/4
4.84
- 9 1/2
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.96 1/2
- 2
9.16
- 6 1/2
5.11 1/2
- 9 3/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,078.47+0.96%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,685.09+0.18%
Japan10,092.19+1.29%
Hong Kong20,268.69-0.11%
China3,251.28+0.96%
Taiwan7,441.84+1.10%
Australia4,562.10+0.17%
Singapore2,758.90+0.19%
South Korea208.74-0.47%
Bombay16,152.590.00Libor0.250.00
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
We are moving to Illinois this morning, hosting another sold out roundtable meeting in Princeton at the Ye Old Underground Inn starting at 9:00am.
Good news for those near Mason City! We have rescheduled the public meeting for next month at the same location. Hopefully a date in mid March is safe but who knows – I remember the winter of 72’.
“Rescheduled” Commodity Marketing Seminar
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
North Iowa Area Community College
Beem Forum
500 College Drive
Mason City, IA 50401
2 p.m. – 4 p.m. CST
Open to the public, $10.00 at the door
Bring a friend to one of our open public seminars if you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan. If your friend signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.
We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.
We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com/
presentations
At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.
Public Seminars:
Tuesday, February 16th, 2010
Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!
Expo Gardens
1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL
From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Travelers Inn
1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – SOLD OUT
Princeton, IL
Friday, February 12th, 2010
Ottawa, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – 2 Seats Left
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets
I know it gets a little boring but we have no change in our advice. Markets are working through the old news and factoring in the “New” news each day. Our plan to make sales in our Selling Season of March – June is a time honored cycle and this year comes no different. We think there are plenty of activities going on in the grain markets with potential for higher prices no different than any other year.
Buyers of grain beware as our corn and soybean markets have quietly moved up to our green line 20 day moving averages. Soybeans have been the leader, breaking through the green line yesterday. After a long, multi-week reset below the Roach Ag Sell Signal 25 line, prices have drifted into territory we pay close attention.
*Today we are ending our advice to get buying needs covered.
We will include in our writing when to accumulate feed needs again.
If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.
Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.
Markets
Traders are buying the U.S. Dollar while the combined European leaders work out some sort of safety net for the countries in debt trouble. When each country gave up their currency to unite under one “Euro”, they essentially handed over the keys to the money printing presses. Today, countries like Greece and Spain have debt problems and have no way to fix them other than plead to the Euro Union for help. While traders wait for announcements on resolutions, the U.S. Dollar is king.
Traders have plenty to digest in our grain markets as we approach another Roach Ag Selling Season. We think there a plenty of stories to play out this season.
What do traders have to think about?
- Mother Nature has just dropped another white coat of snow across the Midwest. Will more cold and wet weather push planting dates like last year in Illinois. The resulting corn / soybean acres is unknown at this point.
- Index funds have accumulated large positions and are likely in no hurry to exit while open interest in grains continues to grow.
- Ethanol barriers are mostly out of the way for expansion. Good profits are in the books and forecasted ahead.
- The USDA reduced ending stocks. If test weight issues persist, more disappearance will result in tighter stocks again, all thing being equal. How many bushels do we really have in storage bins?
Old and new. The large South American soybean crop is old news. The new problem with the large crop is logistical in nature. Poor roads and infrastructure will only allow a certain amount of beans to the ports. Call it a knot in the hose. If China’s appetite for soybeans continues, where will they get the soybeans? As much as the Chinese government wants to slow down economic growth, they still expect to grow 8-9%! Economists have already reporting loan volumes exceeded forecasts for the January period even though Chinese officials wanted all lending stopped and capital requirement increased. It’s hard to slow down the appetite of millions of people who want to live a better life.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.63 3/4
+ 2
9.45 3/4
+ 8 1/4
4.93 1/2
- 3 1/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.97 3/4
+ 1 3/4
9.22
+ 6 1/2
5.21
- 3 1/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,068.13-0.22%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,669.59-1.13%
Japan9,963.99+0.31%
Hong Kong20,290.69+1.85%
China3,220.40+0.20%
Taiwan7,441.84+1.10%
Australia4,554.30+0.91%
Singapore2,753.63+0.70%
South Korea209.73+1.84%
Bombay16,152.59+1.45%
Libor0.250.00
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
Travels
This morning we are hosting a sold out roundtable meeting in Oskaloosa, Iowa followed by a public seminar at 3:00pm in the Mahaska County Extension.
Bring a friend to one of our open public seminars if you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan. If your friend signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.
We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.
We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com/
presentations
At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.
Public Seminars:
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – Sold Out
Mahaska County Extension
212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA
From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m
Tuesday, February 16th, 2010
Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!
Expo Gardens
1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL
From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Travelers Inn
1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left
Princeton, IL
Friday, February 12th, 2010
Ottawa, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010 – 3 Seats Left
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets
No change in our advice. Our plans to hold on sales until spring time Sell Signals remains the same. If you are a buyer of grain, getting those needs covered at current prices remains our plan. Our Sell Signal indicators are solidly in reset mode over a long period of time typically giving us a good window buy bushels or protect against higher prices. Again, if you have buying needs, make sure you have it done.
If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.
Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.
Markets
The U.S. Dollar came under pressure yesterday after a trace of news from Europe stated the united countries of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy had worked out a bail out scheme to shore up fiscal problems. Markets took the news positively and began selling the Dollar but as quick as the news was heard, different versions of the story were repeated which slowed down the Dollar sell off. Traders will sit and wait for resolution that will hold water. Yesterdays sharp move lower in the Dollar signals where our currency could be headed based on the huge supply of stimulus money the U.S. government has pumped into our economy with more expected to come. We expect the Dollar to fall under long term pressure, all else the same.
Traders were not much impressed with the smallish changes to corn ending stocks in yesterdays USDA report. Higher ethanol forecasts by 100 million bushels we would think is the first round of more increases in ethanol. Given the EPA has signed off on ethanol’s long term ability to meet green house gas emission mandates, combined with a profitable outlook, its seems the next discussion would be when to push blending rates to E15? Seems like a natural next step at this point.
Those of us with the theory of lower test weights showing up as disappearance in the feed line will have to look a little deeper into the numbers as no change was reported. What we are looking at is the increasing rate of corn fed and DDG combined versus the U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production numbers. Total meat and poultry numbers were revised lower, 90,477 to 90,458 million pounds but feed and DDG numbers combined actually increased. Our chart below is a solid trend higher – the livestock volume would not be.
Please click on the chart to see the full size.
Using some guestimates of our own, a test weight of 53 instead of 56 on 10% of the crop would eat up or “Disappear” 70 million bushels. Double the problem to 20% of the crop and we use up half of the 300 million bushels the USDA found in January’s report. From the reports we get across the Midwest, we would not be surprised to see more on this topic in upcoming reports. Remember, we have government statisticians organizing the data but use economists to look at the big picture. They typically can and will move numbers around to tie out year over year USDA estimates.
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.56 3/4
- 1 3/4
9.23 3/4
- 3/4
4.83 1/2
+ 1 1/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.91 3/4
- 1 3/4
9.09
- 3 1/2
5.10 3/4
+ 3/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,070.52+1.30%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,701.57+1.24%
Japan9,963.99+0.31%
Hong Kong19,922.22+0.67%
China3,214.13+1.42%
Taiwan7,441.84+1.10%
Australia4,513.40+0.18%
Singapore2,734.39-0.39%
South Korea205.94-0.03%
Bombay15,922.17-0.75%
Libor0.25+0.12%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
TV
Andy Shissler, Manager of our Downers Grove, Illinois office appeared on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day over the weekend. You can see U.S. Farm Report and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: http://www.agweb.com/Me
diaLauncher2.aspx?show=USFR
If you would like to talk with Andy about Roach Ag services, please call him at 630-968-5494.
Travels
Yesterday we cancelled our open meeting in Mason City due to the weather. The school was closed so we were forced to cancel. Today we are creatively working around the snowy streets to hold our roundtable meeting in Iowa Falls, Iowa.
Bring a friend to one of our open public seminars if you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan. If your friend signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.
We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.
We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com
/presentations
At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.
Public Seminars:
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010
Mahaska County Extension
212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA
From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m
Tuesday, February 16th, 2010
Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!
Expo Gardens
1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL
From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Travelers Inn
1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left
Oskaloosa, IA
Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – 1 Seat Left
Princeton, IL
Friday, February 12th, 2010
Ottawa, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets
No change in our advice. Our plans to hold on sales until spring time Sell Signals remains the same. Buying weakness ahead of reports to insure today’s prices is smart. Just one look at our charts to the right tells you we are just one step of bullish news away from a potential change in trends. We have been writing the livestock producers should be covering feed needs. Make sure you have it done.
If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.
Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.
Markets
The U.S. Dollar has weakened into this morning’s overnight trading session. I think traders and economists are waiting to hear how the leaders in European governments like Greece and Spain plan to solve the issues. Has the market over reacted or just postured itself for a longer string of bad news is hard to say at this point.
Corn and soybean export inspections eased a bit this week, with corn at 27.1 million bushels, down 12.3 million bushels from last week, and beans at 39.6 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from last week. Cumulative corn inspections are running ahead of last year but not by much. For soybeans, 978 million bushels for the marketing year remains on a record pace.
Traders looking for smaller U.S. ending stocks in corn and soybeans got what they wanted in this morning’s “February USDA World Supply and Demand Report”. The USDA pushed demand numbers in corn ethanol and feed higher which was enough to offset slightly lower exports. As expected, soybean crush and exports were both adjusted higher to reflect ongoing strong demand. Wheat demand was adjusted lower as competition for U.S. wheat remains a major obstacle in today’s wheat prices.
To summarize our thoughts after today’s report: No Sell Signal = No selling. We see no reason to change our views after this mornings report.
Here is what the USDA had to say:
USDA February 9, 2010 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
Ave
Guess2-9-101-10-10Last YrCorn1.7481.7191.7641.673Beans0.2190.2100.2450.138Wheat0.9730.9810.9760.657
WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 5 million bushels higher this month reflecting an increase in expected imports.
Imports are raised based on expected shipments of South American and European feed quality wheat into the southeastern U.S. market. Exports of all wheat are unchanged, but by-class adjustments include a 10-million-bushel increase in hard red winter wheat and 5-million-bushel decreases in both hard red spring and durum wheat. The projected marketing-year average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $4.75 to $4.95 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 1.4 million tons higher reflecting production increases for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina production is raised 1.0 million tons as abundant, late-season rains raised harvested area and yields in key eastern growing areas. Ukraine production is increased 0.4 million tons as the latest revisions to state statistical committee estimates boost yields, more than offsetting a small reduction in harvested area.
Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are both raised this month mostly reflecting higher expected shipments for Argentina and increased regional trade for Turkey. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for Argentina with larger supplies and recently more favorable government policies toward exports. Exports for Turkey are raised 0.3 million tons reflecting stronger shipments to other countries in the region. Partly offsetting are reductions of 0.5 million tons and 0.2 million tons, respectively, for Pakistan and Uruguay exports. Imports are raised 0.7 million tons for Afghanistan and 0.5 million tons for Turkey. Imports are raised 0.4 million tons for Uzbekistan. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton import reduction for Pakistan.
Global wheat consumption for 2009/10 is raised 1.1 million tons mostly on higher feeding in Canada and increased food use in Afghanistan. Higher consumption mostly offsets this month’s increase in world production with projected global ending stocks rising 0.3 million tons.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 45 million bushels lower this month with higher expected corn use and sorghum exports.
Corn used for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels higher reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Agency. November’s record ethanol production was up 3 percent from the previous record in October as higher prices for ethanol and distillers grains boosted ethanol producer returns. November-December corn use for ethanol was up 16 percent from the same period in 2008/09. Although returns have declined since November, recently lower corn prices continue to support profitability for ethanol producers. A 5-million-bushel reduction in expected corn use for sweeteners partly offsets the increase for ethanol.
Corn exports for 2009/10 are projected 50 million bushels lower on increased competition from Argentina.
Ending stocks are projected 45 million bushels lower. The projected marketing-year average farm price for corn is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $3.95 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2009/10 is projected 1.6 million tons higher this month with higher Argentina corn production only partly offset by lower EU-27 corn production and lower Ukraine barley and oats production. Argentina corn production is raised 2.2 million tons with higher expected yields and harvested area as growing conditions continue to improve with additional rainfall in the main corn areas. Late planting and short-term heat stress in the western growing areas temper prospects as a substantial portion of the growing season is still ahead. EU-27 corn production is lowered 0.4 million tons on downward revisions to area for Italy. Ukraine barley and oats production are each lowered 0.2 million tons reflecting the latest revisions to state statistical committee estimates. A number of small, offsetting revisions are made for Russia coarse grains production.
Global coarse grain imports and exports for 2009/10 are both raised slightly this month. The reduction in U.S. corn exports is more than offset by a 1.5-million-ton increase for Argentina. Sorghum imports are raised for Japan and Mexico with the increase in U.S. sorghum exports. Other major trade changes this month include a 0.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 barley exports and a 0.5-million-ton increase in Turkey barley exports. Global coarse grain consumption is increased 3.4 million tons this month with higher corn and sorghum use more than offsetting a reduction for barley. Higher corn use for ethanol in the United States and higher corn feeding in Argentina account for most of the increase. Sorghum feeding is raised for Australia, Japan, and Mexico. Barley feeding is lowered for Australia, Iran, Turkey, and Ukraine. Global coarse grain ending stocks are projected 1.0 million tons lower with a 2.1-million-ton reduction for corn partly offset by a 1.1-million-ton increase for barley.
OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are reduced to 210 million bushels, down 35 million from last month due to increased exports and crush.
Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 1.400 billion as export shipments continue to exceed earlier projections. Although a record South American harvest is expected to reach the market in coming weeks, tight old-crop South American supplies resulting from last year=s historic drought in Argentina continue to support U.S. exports.
Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.720 billion reflecting a strong soybean meal exports and a lower soybean meal extraction rate.
Soybean oil stocks are projected higher this month as the increased crush more than offsets a small reduction in the soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil used for methyl ester is unchanged this month despite reduced production due to the loss of the $1.00 per gallon blending credit at the end of December. The recent Environmental Protection Agency announcement of final rules for the 2009 and 2010 biodiesel mandates is expected to result in offsetting production gains through the end of the 2009/10 marketing year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008/09 is projected at $8.70 to $10.20 per bushel, down 20 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $270 to $320 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price is projected at 33.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 433.7 million tons, up 2.1 million from last month.
Global soybean production is raised 1.6 million tons to 255 million tons. Improved production prospects for South America account for most of the change. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 66 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to higher yields. Soybean production is also raised for Paraguay and Uruguay. Global sunflower seed production is projected higher due to gains for Ukraine and Russia. Global rapeseed production is raised this month due to a larger projected crop for EU-27.
Global oilseed trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 96.3 million tons, mainly due to increased soybean imports for China and Egypt. Higher global oilseed crush mainly reflects increased rapeseed crush in Canada, China, and EU-27. Global oilseed stocks are mostly unchanged at 71.1 million tons.
Click here for the FCStone USDA Highlights
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.59
+ 3
9.38 1/2
+ 9
4.86
+ 2
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.94 1/2
+ 3 1/2
9.22
+ 7 1/2
5.12 1/4
+ 3/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,056.74-0.88%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,671.43+0.26%
Japan9,932.90-0.19%
Hong Kong19,790.28+1.22%
China3,169.19+0.58%
Taiwan7,361.04+2.01%
Australia4,505.10-0.36%
Singapore2,745.02+1.91%
South Korea206.01+1.30%
Bombay16,042.18+0.67%
Libor0.25+0.12%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
On TV
Andy Shissler, Manager of our Downers Grove, Illinois office appeared on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day over the weekend. You can see U.S. Farm Report and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: http://www.agweb.com
/MediaLauncher2.aspx?show=USFR
Travels
Today’s Mason City Public Seminar has been cancelled due to weather.
Our week begins in Osage, Iowa this morning with a roundtable meeting of about 15 farmers. If you are a subscriber to our Daily Grain Plan and you bring a friend who signs up, we will extend your subscription 2 months free. We have found the best way to help your fellow farmers with marketing is to get them started with our Daily Grain Plan.
We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.
We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com
/presentations
At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.
Public Seminars:
Monday, February 8th, 2010 – CANCELLED
John Roach will be at N IA Area Com. College
Beem Forum
500 College Drive, Mason City, IA
From 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010
Mahaska County Extension
212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA
From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m
Tuesday, February 16th, 2010
Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!
Expo Gardens
1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL
From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Travelers Inn
1709 E Lincoln Road, Kokomo, IN
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – 2 Seats Left
Oskaloosa, IA
Thursday, February 11th, 2010 – 3 Seats Left
Princeton, IL
Friday, February 12th, 2010
Ottawa, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets
Seasonality in the grain markets is upon us with big reports from the USDA around the corner. Buying weakness ahead of reports to insure today’s prices is smart. Just one look at our charts to the right tells you we are just one step of bullish news away from a potential change in trends. We have been writing the livestock producers should be covering feed needs. Make sure you have it done.
If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.
Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.
Markets
The U.S. Dollar has firmed up into this mornings trading after a long week of sorting out the magnitude of debt problems that began in Greece. Traders worry the debt problems could trickle into other European countries already severely leveraged. A lack of confidence and worries about the higher cost of financing huge amounts of stimulus money that is soon to slow down still has traders moving to safer havens for money like the U.S. Dollar.
Another dose of cold weather and snow is upon the Corn Belt. Traders will begin to debate the soon increase the risk premium in our grain markets if the weather continues. Most farmers we talk with would like to be in the fields in just 8 weeks.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report had index funds reducing positions in corn by 8,549 contracts, soybeans 3,941, Chicago wheat 5,249 and meal by 952 contracts. Index funds added 357 contracts in Kansas City wheat and 5,623 in oil. On the week, funds were net sellers, reducing positions by -12,701 contracts.
Managed money also reduced positions across the board by a net -49,855 contracts. The speculators sold 19,418 contracts of corn, 10,683 soybeans, 5,420 Chicago wheat, 2,683 KC wheat, 2,534 oil and 9,117 meal.
While index funds trimmed their holding a little and speculators sold a rather sizable position, open interest continues to grow. On the week, newly traded contracts of corn increased 40,974, soybeans 30,500 and Chicago wheat 29,601 contracts.
Spring sure seems a lot further off than optimum planting dates after watching this morning’s news across the country. It will surely warm up and the crop will be planted but this weather pattern looks like it will bring some jitters to the market during the journey to plant this years crop.
Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand report are tilted towards smaller corn and soybean ending stocks based on higher demand numbers versus the January report.
Below are traders average guesses:
Jan
Average 09-10 08-09
Guesses Range USDA USDA
Corn 1.748 1.602-1.815 1.764 1.673
Soybeans 0.219 0.170-0.245 0.245 0.138
Wheat 0.973 0.876-1.001 0.976 0.657
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.55 3/4
+ 4 1/4
9.27
+ 13 1/2
4.78
+ 4 3/4
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.88
- 3/4
9.14
+ 4
4.99
- 3 1/4
World Markets
S&P 5001,066.19+0.29%
Europe DJ Stoxx2,380.10+0.29%
Japan9,951.82-1.05%
Hong Kong19,550.89-0.58%
China3,150.99-0.07%
Taiwan7,215.88+0.04%
Australia4,521.40+0.16%
Singapore2,693.62+0.37%
South Korea203.37-0.82%
Bombay15,935.61+0.13%
Libor0.25+0.12%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
Text Only Version
On TV
Andy Shissler, Manager of our Downers Grove, Illinois office will appear on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day this weekend. You can see U.S. Farm Report and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: http://www.agweb.com
/MediaLauncher2.aspx?show=USFR
Travels
After a weekend of rest, we will resume our meetings on Monday. We have really been having fun hanging with farmers all week. Farmers are such great people!
We have plenty of room at our public seminars but many of the round table meetings we scheduled have filled. We will no longer list those that are sold out, and are sorry we cannot accommodate everyone. Please note those with space still available. We are very pleased with the very positive reactions we have received to both the round table and public seminars.
We will have the PowerPoint presentations used at this week’s meetings posted to our website in a day or two, so you will be able to see what we presented. We will let you know when they are posted. Meanwhile the presentation I used on the cruise is available at: http://www.roachag.com
/presentations
At our meetings we present our Roach Ag market outlook, a review of how Sell Signals have worked over the past 6 years, how to use Sell Signals better, and suggestions on how to best invest your risk management dollars. No preregistration is required for public meetings except for the one in Peoria. Call us at 800-622-7628 if you have any questions! Cost is $10.00, payable at the door.
Public Seminars:
Monday, February 8th, 2010
John Roach will be at N IA Area Com. College
Beem Forum
500 College Drive, Mason City, IA
From 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010
Mahaska County Extension
212 North I Street, Oskaloosa, IA
From 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m
Tuesday, February 16th, 2010
Free courtesy of Peoria County Farm Bureau, Corn Belt Marketing, Farm Credit, and FBFM Please call 800-655-3380 to book your reservation!
Expo Gardens
1601 W Northmoor Road, Peoria, IL
From 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Parkland Community College
Tony Noel Agricultural Technology Center
2400 W. Bradley Avenue, Champaign, IL
From 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Roundtable Seminars:
In addition to our public seminars, we are also holding small group Round Table Discussions. The most important aspect of our Round Table Discussions is just that. They are discussions. Our meetings are designed to be free flowing to really help you understand how to improve your marketing and crop risk management on the farm. These meetings will be limited to 15 participants to stimulate the exchange of ideas. We have space available at the following locations. The cost is $100.00 per person.
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 – 4 Seats Left
Oskaloosa, IA
Thursday, February 11th, 2010
Princeton, IL
Friday, February 12th, 2010
Ottawa, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Clinton, IL
Wednesday, February 17th, 2010
Lincoln, IL
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Kokomo, IN
Thursday, February 18th, 2010
Monticello, IL
Friday, February 19th, 2010
Lebanon, IN
Sell Signals
We have no Sell Signals in our grain markets
If you are a livestock producer and have grain to buy, buy weakness.
If you need to sell corn because of storage issues, go ahead because basis has improved in most areas, but buy it back in futures.
Our plan calls for sales during the 1st half of the calendar year and it has just begun. Worries about growing the 2010 crop will increase and we will have more Sell Signals. We think you should wait for them.
Markets
The U.S. Dollar strengthened sharply this week as traders increased their worry about European debt problems and many other countries economic conditions. Our grain markets fell along with just about every other commodity market in the world as a direct consequence of the Dollar’s weakness.
I know recent price declines have brought all the bears out of the woodwork and they are telling you how bearish things are, but it is the wrong time of year to be negative. There have been few changes in world grain fundamentals since prices peaked in late 2009. The Dollar is up some and the South American crops are getting closer to maturity. In addition some countries around the world are very, very slowly reducing their individual economic stimulus and increasing borrowing costs.
But, if you didn’t know the South American crops were big, you have been hiding under a rock for 4 months. We sold in November and December on those fundamentals. The stronger Dollar might be a little surprising but it really hasn’t moved that far and has a greater likelihood of getter cheaper than getting lots stronger. On Tuesday’s USDA reports most demand estimates will be increased because usage as been better than expected.
When will the amount of snow and colder than normal weather become more important than the old news of a big crop in South America? When will traders begin to put weather risk premium into the price structure? How many days before we should be planting? How long before we get our first – in what will be a string of positive economic news?
Meanwhile we have to wait out grain markets that will put in February lows when we least expect it, tying us “up in knots” while the bears build up their short positions. Then when prices turn higher as we worry about raising a big crop (and make no bones about it, we must have big crops in the U.S. this year to supply record demand) those shorts will have to buy their way out. We count on them every spring to give us our Sell Signals and for the life of me I cannot see any way that will not happen again this spring.
Don’t let these bearish markets spook you. We have to raise big crops in the Northern Hemisphere in 2010. From where I sit in North Central Iowa this morning, spring seems a lot further off than optimum planting dates. Sure it could warm up, all the snow can melt and the ground dry out in plenty of time for a good planting season, but warm weather had better hurry. My bet is we will have more than the normal spring planting worries which is what Illinois farmers have been telling me for months.
When I have asked farmers this week for a show of hands on how many are worried about getting their planting done in a timely fashion, about half are worried today. I wonder how long it will be before everybody gets worried?
Check out the export sales report charts from yesterday. As you can see, even wheat is finally getting some buying activity. Bean sales were slow but are so far ahead that everybody expects the USDA to raise its estimate.
Click here for the Weekly US Corn Export Sales
Click here for the Weekly US Soybean Export Sales
Click here for the Weekly US Wheat Export Sales
Relax about markets this weekend. It is February and we have to give users a chance to buy something cheap or we will lose them forever. The spec traders gave you good prices to sell in November, December and January. Now they are giving users cheaper prices to buy in February. I am betting they will give you higher prices to sell in March, April, May, and June. What would we do without their good work?
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.
Services | USDA Data | Weather | Home
To View Your Subscription Click Here
Front Month Futures
Mar ‘10 Corn
Mar ‘10 Beans
Mar ‘10 Wheat
3.51 1/2
- 2 1/2
9.17
+ 3
4.72 1/4
- 3 1/2
New Crop 2010
Dec ‘10 Corn
Nov ‘10 Beans
July ‘10 Wheat
3.88
- 3/4
9.14
+ 4
4.99
- 3 1/4
World Markets
S&P 5001057.50-0.40%
Europe DJ Stoxx2383.13-1.73%
Japan10057-2.89%
Hong Kong19665-3.33%
China3153-2.04%
Taiwan7218-4.30%
Australia4514.1-2.33%
Singapore2683.56-2.24%
South Korea205.06-3.15%
Bombay15791-2.68%
Libor0.25+0.37%
Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart
Click here for the full size Crude Oil Chart
Click here for the full size Heating Oil Chart
Click here for full size Ethanol Chart
Click here for the full size DJ-AIG Index Monthly Chart
Click here for the full size Corn Chart
Click here for the full size Soybean Chart
Click here for the full size Meal Chart
Click here for the full size Wheat Chart
|
|
