Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd., Commodity Brokerage, Corn Futures, Wheat, Advisory Newsletter - Commentary Vault

05-03-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-05-03T09:45:42Z

Andy Shissler, of our Downers Grove, Illinois office will appear on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day this weekend. You can see these programs and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: U.S. Farm Report & Ag Day.

On TV

Andy Shissler, of our Downers Grove, Illinois office will appear on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day this weekend. You can see these programs and Andy’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: U.S. Farm Report & Ag Day.

If you would like to talk with Andy about Roach Ag services, please call him at 800-374-0049

Buy Signals:

• Day 9 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal

• Day 6 of a soybean Sell Signal
Sell Signals:

Corn and Chicago wheat gave us just a one day Sell Signal. The last corn Sell Signal lasted just 2 days and prior to that, 3 days. The nature of a declining market (corn/wheat) provides a pattern where prices are not pushed into overbought territory very long because there is not enough bullish news to keep prices propped up. Corn has been short on Sell Signal days while beans have been a plenty.

We adjusted our corn and soybean selling plans to include one more Sell Signal later in the growing season to wrap up sales. Selling new crop corn now would go against our rules but those who fear far lower fall prices might have to make a therapeutic sale while waiting for the next Sell Signal.

Corn, Kansas City and Chicago wheat markets fell through green line 20-day moving averages with power yesterday. Watch the bean market as it draws down towards the green line. So far, the soy complex has held support at the green line since November!

You can make a case for higher or lower prices on our next Sell Signal but we think Mother Nature will drive most of that direction. A corn crop with a 14 or even a 15 billion bushel number has loomed for months. Nobody should be surprised traders are factoring in that kind of crop for this fall, regardless of China’s buying needs.

Kansas City and Chicago wheat prices fell on an improved outlook for yields from the Kansas wheat tour where at least an average Kansas crop has been reported. Wheat sellers will have to be very patient waiting for another Sell Signal to wrap up sales.

To read comments from Day 2 of the Hard Red winter wheat tour click here.

Soybeans remain in a Sell Signal this morning. If you have not squared up your soybean sales at current values, do it now. Those who are caught up on sales and perhaps have some long put options in place, sit back and wait for the next Sell Signal to wrap up our selling plan.

During the past 12 months we’ve had 8 soybean sell signals that lasted an average of 11 Days. If we exclude the extended 30 day sell signal in February the average length was 8.3 days. The last sell signal lasted 8 days.

Markets

U.S. Dollars are firm after yesterday’s economic news splashed a little water on Tuesday’s more optimistic factory orders data. Yesterday the Department of Commerce reported U.S. factory orders dropped 1.5% in March. We can count on the Fed printing more money in an election year if data warrants such action.

Trend line – Dennis Gartman

Click to view full size

The greater focus will be on jobs and the negative trend in weekly jobless claims. Weekly jobless numbers out this morning were better than estimates, falling 27,000 to 365,000 vs. the expectation for 380,000. A warm winter has likely skewed the numbers over the past few months so the latest numbers are all the more critical as economists and traders debate U.S. growth. This Friday the Department of Labor issues the key monthly payroll report.

Ethanol stocks rose 0.3 million to 22.2 million barrels in the week ending April 27, up from 19.8 million barrels the previous year. Production rose 29,000 barrels/day to 894,000 barrels per day during the week, up 3.3% over last week.

The value buying Chinese have been in the market for the past couple weeks, covering feed needs in the southern region where the quality of corn available from storage has been poor. The chart below shows Corn values are back to levels where China has had buying interest.

Click to view full size

Weekly export sales numbers out this morning were strong for corn and soybeans, above average for wheat and meal.

Weekly corn exports were reported at a net 136.7 million bushels (60% new crop), above the high end of trade guesses at 129.9 million bushels. Weekly corn exports need to average just 13 million bushels per week to meet the current USDA target of 1.7 billion bushels.

Weekly soybean exports were 63.7 million bushels, also above the highest trade guess of 51.4 million bushels. The weekly average soybean exports number needs to be 40 million bushels to meet the current USDA target of 1.290 billion bushels.

Weekly wheat export sales were 26.1 million bushels, just below the high end of trade guesses at 31.2 million bushels. Wheat exports have already hit the current USDA target of 1 billion bushels. The USDA will obviously raise the actual wheat export number in next week’s supply/demand update.

Good rains covered a good portion of the Corn Belt yesterday, with the northern and eastern areas expecting to get better coverage in the next week. FCStone’s lead forecaster is not talking about many dry days between now and Sunday. All of the rain will slow planting progress but remember we are already far ahead.

FCStone Research

A USDA attaché in Argentina estimated the current corn crop at 21.2 million tons, down from 23.6 million tons LY and slightly below the 21.5 million tons April S&D; they expect production to bounce back to 24.7 million tons next season (2012/13).

Russian analyst SovEcon reported grain exports at 25 million tons from July 1 through May 1, with total 2011/12 shipments expected to exceed the government’s estimated “upper limit” of 27 million tons. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that country’s grain exports at 17.8 million tons from July 1 through May 3, up more than 80% from last season’s pace; May-June exports are seen at a total of around 5.0 million tons, leaving total ‘11/12 shipments near 23 million tons.

For those that have not heard, the CME will increase trading hours beginning May 15th. Click here.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 05/03/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 05/03/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.46 3 3/4+	14.80 1/4 1/4+	6.12 3/4 5 3/4+

Front Month Futures

(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.30 1/2 - 1/4	13.66 1/4 - 2	6.17 1/2 3 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

World Markets
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,401	0.25%+
Brazil Bovespa	62,883	1.15%+
Mexico Bolsa	39,677	0.37%+
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,323	1.41%+
UK FTSE 100	5,792	0.58%+
Germany DAX	6,775	0.95%+
France CAC 40	3,267	1.25%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,380	closed
Hong Kong Hang Seng	21,250	-0.28%
China CSI 300	2,692	0.30%+
Taiwan Taiex	7,660	-0.23%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,429	-0.16%
Singapore FTSE Straits	3,001	-0.17%
South Korea KOSPI 200	266	-0.21%
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,151	-0.87%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 05/02/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

05-02-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-05-02T09:40:01Z

Buy Signals:

• Day 8 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal

• Day 1 of a Corn Sell Signal
• Day 1 of a Chicago Wheat Sell Signal
• Day 4 of a soybean Sell Signal
Sell Signals:

Our corn marketing plan has been to make sales on this sell signal to wrap up our selling season for corn. Sell Signals have been quick to trigger and for this reason, we are modifying our plan exactly the same as our guidance for soybeans. It is the first of May and we feel like we need one more bite of the apple in our plan. Now, this could be wrong for new crop sales, or Mother Nature could change things and give us better values for that last increment.

We recommend you divide bushels for this round of sales with one further Sell Signal prior to pollination. Sell half of the corn bushels in the bin and half of the new crop corn that remains to be priced ahead of harvest.

Do space out your sales over the next several days. During the past 12 months we’ve had 10 corn sell signals that lasted an average of 6.9 days. The last sell signal lasted 2 days.

When we recommend a sale we are always talking about the unsold bushels you have left that you want to sell. Every reader is different in the number of bushels of a particular crop year they have sold prior to today. You may have sold some or none of your 2011 and 2012 crops. The bushels we ask you to think about are the unsold bushels that you want to get sold during this Selling Season between now and mid-July.

For soft wheat sellers, we have planned to use this sell signal to wrap up sales on the last increment of old crop and finish logging sales for new crop wheat you would like priced ahead of harvest. Chicago wheat values have closely followed corn, with new crop corn providing very little upside for the time being. If you have wheat to sell and like the price, our green light is on.

Kansas City wheat is close behind in triggering a Roach Ag Sell Signal. Winter wheat sellers are facing much larger crop production numbers than a year ago as yields reported from the first crop tour day appear very solid.

Minneapolis wheat is far behind in achieving a Sell Signal.

Our advice for soybeans remains unchanged. On this Sell Signal, we want to sell half of the beans left in the bin and hold the balance for the next Sell Signal. We want to do the same with new crop beans. Sell half of the additional bushels you need to get to your pre-harvest percentage. Hold half for the next bean Sell Signal.

Do space out your sales over the next several days. During the past 12 months we’ve had 8 soybean sell signals that lasted an average of 11 Days. If we exclude the extended 30 day sell signal in February the average length was 8.3 days. The last sell signal lasted 8 days.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index surged after solid U.S. economic news suggests the Fed will not have to add monetary stimulus. The Dollar is 43 cents higher after remaining in a negative trend for most of April. Look for the stronger dollar to pressure grains.

U.S. factory activity grew in April at the strongest rate in 10 months, with the Institute for Supply Managements index rising to 54.8 from 53.8 in March. The number beat forecasts and more importantly eased worries the U.S. economy had lost momentum at the start of the 2nd Quarter. Stock markets closed at new highs for the year.

Yesterday ADM reported lower earnings but showed signs of stability as poor ethanol margins continue to eat a major hole in profits amidst challenging markets in U.S. ethanol and European oilseed processing. ADM stated they intend to keep ethanol production levels steady, holding for smaller firms to make necessary production cuts as excess stockpiles weigh on markets. Profits in the company bio-products division, where ethanol is a part, fell 69% for the past quarter. Wall Street took the earnings as a positive, closing up 7% on the day

Smaller and smaller soybean crops from S. America continue to drive the idea U.S. soybean production plays a greater role in world export supplies for the next crop year. It would not be out of the question for the soybean / corn spread to climb from the current high of 2.58 up to 3.0. Don’t rule out larger bean acres and even larger than normal double crop bean acres this year.

Source: FCStone

Click to view full size

FCStone Research

Chinese customs said last week that they’ve decided to accept Argentine corn imports, allowing for future corn deals between the two countries; nearly all of China’s corn imports have been sourced from the United States so far.

South African government data showed 2011/12 (May-April) corn exports at 2.44 million tons, up 18% from last year and the highest since ‘03/04; however, corn imports also hit a multi-year high, at a combined 419k tons.

Private analysts Oil World estimated 2011/12 global soybean production at 238.1 million tons yesterday, down 2.3 million tons from last month’s estimate, two million below the current USDA number, and 27.7 million tons below last season’s crop. Brazil’s crop was cut to 65 million tons, a million below the USDA, with Argentine output seen at 42.5 million tons, 2.5 million tons below the USDA April.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.56 1/2 - 3 1/4	14.93 - 4 3/4	6.28 - 5 3/4

Front Month Futures

(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.36 - 2 3/4	13.84 - 8 1/2	6.39 1/4 - 3 3/4

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

World Markets
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,397	-0.24%
Brazil Bovespa	62,290	0.04%+
Mexico Bolsa	39,531	closed
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,300	-0.29%
UK FTSE 100	5,774	-0.65%
Germany DAX	6,766	0.06%+
France CAC 40	3,227	0.45%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,380	0.31%+
Hong Kong Hang Seng	21,309	1.02%+
China CSI 300	2,683	2.18%+
Taiwan Taiex	7,677	2.33%+
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,436	0.14%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	3,006	0.93%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	267	0.85%+
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,302	-0.10%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 05/02/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

05-01-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-05-01T09:31:46Z

Buy Signals:

• Day 7 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal

• Day 4 of soybean Sell Signal
Sell Signals:

Look over at our chart for Chicago wheat and note we are very close to a Roach Ag Sell Signal. Our plan has been to wrap up sales on old crop in the bin and bushels of new crop you want priced ahead of harvest. We will alert you with our Sell Signal alert when it is time.

Kansas City wheat is close behind in triggering a Roach Ag Sell Signal. Winter wheat sellers should be paying attention to cash and forward contracting values in your area. As the weekly crop ratings indicate, there have been only 5 other years in history with a crop rated above 64% good/excellent. The next KC wheat Sell Signal will also wrap up our selling plans for the current selling season that ends in July.

Minneapolis wheat is far behind in achieving a Sell Signal.

For corn, last Friday sent old crop corn values powering up and over the green line 20-day moving average. Momentum from that move has corn very close to a Sell Signal. New crop values are stuck right back on the green line, capped by good rainfall, solid planting progress and ideas of larger stocks come this fall.

Our advice for soybeans remains unchanged. On this Sell Signal, we want to sell half of the beans left in the bin and hold the balance for the next Sell Signal. We want to do the same with new crop beans. Sell half of the additional bushels you need to get to your pre-harvest percentage. Hold half for the next bean Sell Signal.

Do space out your sales over the next several days. During the past 12 months we’ve had 8 soybean sell signals that lasted an average of 11 Days. If we exclude the extended 30 day sell signal in February the average length was 8.3 days. The last sell signal lasted 8 days.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index started off the new month under pressure, sliding just another 15 cents but looking to take out the February low of 78.42.

Click to view state by state corn progress

Click to view state by state bean progress

In the USDA’s weekly planting progress report, corn moved to 53% planted, compared to the 5-year average of 27% and last week’s number of 28%. The weekly corn planted number was a solid 5-7% above trade guesses but not likely a big deal as cold weather has hindered the early eastern Corn Belt results. Emergence numbers will be a better gauge to determining just how much the early start has helped with corn yields but the big planting numbers will likely weigh on corn values today.

Soybeans advanced to 12% planted compared to the 5-year average of 5%.

Winter wheat conditions improved from 63% to 64% good/excellent for the week, far above the average of 50.4%.

Yesterday morning, another shot of new crop soybean sales (220,000 million tons) to China gave the bulls enough to create some buying late in the trading session and on the last day of the month. Combined with last Friday’s sales, ongoing soybean sales diverted to the U.S. will be a requirement to maintaining the momentum in the soy complex.

At the same time, smaller crop estimates for S. America continue to support soybean values. In his weekly report, Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean number by another 1.5 million tons after 58% of the crop has been harvested. He added further, “The problem in Argentina is the fact that most of the best soybeans have already been harvested and the worst are yet to come”.

“Still to be harvested are soybeans in northern Argentina that suffered from dry weather during most of their pod filling period and the late-planted double crop soybeans in southern Argentina that have recently encountered frosty temperatures. The yields of the soybeans harvested thus far in northern Argentina are in the range of 1,000 to 2,000 kg/ha or 14.5 to 29.0 bu/ac. The yields of the soybeans harvested thus far in southern Argentina are in the range of 1,400 to 2,500 kg/ha or 20.3 to 36.2 bu/ac”.

China’s most recent Purchasing Managers Report (PMI) indicates their industrial sector remains at a level above the growth threshold of 50.0 for the 5th consecutive month. China’s PMI for the April period was 53.3, up a hair from 53.1 in March. The message can be taken as the Chinese manufacturing sector is growing but certainly not as fast as in years past but faster than Q4 and on track to hit current government targets. The news boosted Asian and Australian stock markets but consumer confidence remains in a negative trend lower.

Click to view full size

Gail Martells’ weather map does not have many dry areas in key corn growing portions of the Corn Belt, particularly into the 10 day forecast. The 11-15 day shows things drying off. The wet weather will undoubtedly slow down corn planting progess.

Click to view full size

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex_1”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.53 3/4 - 6 1/2	14.91 1/4 - 11 3/4	6.36 3/4 - 11

Front Month Futures

(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.38 1/4 - 5	13.78 - 3	6.46 1/4 - 8 1/4

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

World Markets
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,394	0.04%+
Brazil Bovespa	62,290	-0.19%
Mexico Bolsa	39,531	0.47%+
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,306	-0.00%
UK FTSE 100	5,759	0.37%+
Germany DAX	6,761	-0.59%
France CAC 40	3,213	-1.64%
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,351	-1.78%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	21,094	closed
China CSI 300	2,626	closed
Taiwan Taiex	7,502	closed
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,430	0.75%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,979	closed
South Korea KOSPI 200	264	closed
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,319	closed

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/29/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-30-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-30T10:05:43Z

Buy Signals:

• Day 6 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal

• Day 3 of soybean Sell Signal
Sell Signals:

On this bean Sell Signal we want to sell half of the beans left in the bin and hold the balance for the next Sell Signal. We want to do the same with new crop beans. Sell half of the additional bushels you need to get to your pre-harvest percentage. Hold half for the next bean Sell Signal.

Do space out your sales over the next several days. During the past 12 months we’ve had 8 soybean sell signals that lasted an average of 11 Days. If we exclude the extended 30 day sell signal in February the average length was 8.3 days. The last sell signal lasted 8 days.

Corn shot up out of its Buy Signal on the news of a big Chinese purchase of new crop corn. In the process July corn cleared its green line 20-day moving average with lots of power. Old crop corn is likely to move back up near early April highs with new crop December corn lagging as long as weather is beneficial.

July Chicago wheat also moved above its green line 20-day moving average. July KC wheat traded above its green line on Friday but fell back down below it overnight. Minneapolis wheat is still stuck down near its recent lows.

We thought it might take a while before corn and wheat markets were able to cycle up to their next Sell Signal. After seeing Friday’s trade, it may not take long at all to get a Sell Signal in corn and Chicago wheat. KC wheat will take longer and Minneapolis wheat has not really begun to move higher.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index slid down to just take out the early April low tick then rallied a bit. It is still trading slightly higher this morning. World equity markets are mixed.

Last week ended with the rating agency, S&P, downgrading Spain’s credit rating for the second time this year. Spanish unemployment was reported at 24.4% making it hard to see how things get better very soon. U.S. economic growth was reported at an anemic 2.2% for the last quarter.

This morning private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 220,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2012-13 marketing year.

Click to view full size

The chart above shows the combined Western Hemisphere soybean production. P/U/B stands for Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia. Notice that South American production is expected to be down by over 25 million tons from last year. The right axis shows the percentage of the Western Hemisphere production coming from the U.S. These are last month’s USDA estimates and are expected to be cut by something near 4 million tons on the May report.

Much of the U.S. received good rains this weekend. Some of the driest areas of Illinois received heavy rain. Spring wheat and winter wheat areas received good rains. The only world crops being threatened at all are in areas of Russia. Most other areas are getting beneficial weather.

Traders expect U.S. corn planting to be well above normal in today’s report at 40 to 45% planted. Normal for this date is 27%.

Click to view full size

The Commitment of Traders Report showed that through last Tuesday the managed spec funds continued to add to their net longs in beans, increasing their net futures and option longs by 2,615 contracts setting a new record net long.

In corn, the managed spec funds continued to liquidate longs and increase shorts. This week they cut their net long corn futures and options by 43,511 contracts. Commercials were on the other side of the trade.

FCStone Research

UkrAgroConsult reported that Ukraine’s spring grain planting campaign reached 4.98 million hectares (12.3 million acres), up 12% from last year’s pace.

AgRural estimated the 2011-12 Brazilian soy crop at 66.24 million tons, down from last month but only by 0.7%; they raised their planted area estimate by a couple hundred thousand hectares, offsetting a fairly steep yield reduction.

Private analyst Informa on Friday estimated the Argentine soybean crop at an even 40 million tons down 5.0 million tons from their estimate early this month, 8.8 million tons below last year’s crop, and 13.0 million tons behind Informa’s initial early-season Argentine estimate. They’ve got harvest at 55% complete, slightly behind both last season and the five-year average pace.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.53 0.00	14.86 3/4 - 10	6.38 1/4 - 4

Front Month Futures

(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.37 - 1 1/4	13.57 3/4 - 4 1/4	6.42 1/2 - 7 1/2

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

World Markets(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,395	-0.28%
Brazil Bovespa	62,290	-0.78%
Mexico Bolsa	39,221	0.32%+
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,325	-0.82%
UK FTSE 100	5,753	-0.41%
Germany DAX	6,798	-0.05%
France CAC 40	3,239	-0.85%
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,521	closed
Hong Kong Hang Seng	21,094	1.70%+
China CSI 300	2,510	-0.35%
Taiwan Taiex	7,502	0.28%+
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,397	0.79%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,979	-0.10%
South Korea KOSPI 200	264	0.35%+
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,319	0.76%+

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/29/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-27-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-27T10:05:39Z

Buy Signals:

• Day 5 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal
• Day 5 of corn Buy Signal – barely

• Day 2 of soybean Sell Signal
Sell Signals:

On this bean Sell Signal we want to sell half of the beans in the bin holding the balance for the next Sell Signal. We want to do the same with new crop. Sell half of the additional bushels you need to get to your pre-harvest percentage while holding half for the next bean Sell Signal.

This is a change in our earlier plans as we make adjustments with our selling plan to compensate for changing markets. When market fundamentals strengthen, we divide inventories into smaller pieces so we can have some bushels to sell on additional expected price peaks.

The idea we can organize a marketing plan late last year or early this year and leave it un-attended is not possible. Our suggestions to ramp up, scale out, hold, dribble and slice and dice are the result of market dynamics. Making adjustments to your sales plan is part of today’s grain marketing business.

Do space out your sales over the next several days. During the past 12 months we’ve had 8 soybean sell signals that lasted an average of 11 Days. If we exclude the extended 30 day sell signal in February the average length was 8.3 days. The last sell signal lasted 8 days.

Corn remains just inside of our buy signal indicator as of this morning. Not knowing what the USDA will print in next week’s supply/demand report, end users should pick at old crop values you are confident will pencil in your P/L. Resistance levels have held in the corn market, leaving only a fresh round of bullish USDA data as one of the few things that could prop up values. A negative corn report next week could allow corn a decline to new lows.

Kansas City wheat lost the buy signal, trading up from recent lows. We remain patient buyers of wheat markets until later this summer.

July Chicago wheat is back to the challenge of testing its green line 20-day moving average. Watch for price action at this key level. Wheat sellers will need to be patient for now.

It is beginning to look like it will take a while for corn and wheat markets to cycle back up to their next Sell Signal. The price level of those next peaks will be determined mostly by weather in my opinion. And right now, weather is favoring the bears in Chicago.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trend lower as daily market opinions on Spanish debt makes for choppy trade. The Dollar is within a few pennies of marking another 30-day low.

The rating agency, S&P, downgraded Spain’s credit rating for the second time this year, suggesting the government’s aggressive cost cutting has not been enough to offset the cost of debt and a smaller tax revenue stream. It is very clear that “Cost cut” and “Growth” do not go hand in hand. European leaders will need to look for growth ideas to solve the woes in the European Union. Markets have mostly shrugged the downgrade.

U.S. equity markets remain neutral to higher as the latest GDP report pegged U.S. growth at 2.2% for the last quarter. Business investment numbers were lower, suggesting small and mid-size businesses are not yet willing to take on additional new headcount. The good news is some of the data is already old. More recent economic reports have been more positive, although subdued.

Soybean prices were supported again by further reductions in Argentina bean production. Yesterday, the Buenos Aires grain exchange lowered production by 1 million tons to 43 million tons impacted by severe drought. The International Grains Council also lowered Brazil and Argentina production by 1.4 million tons and 2.1 million tons respectively. This week crops were also tested by frost although most reports are suggesting there were no further losses.

Repeated soybean production cuts for S. America since December has traders looking for smaller and smaller exports for the coming year.

Click to view full size

Keep in mind the large spec crowd is ultra long in the bean market. Be sure you are participating in this rally.

Even though corn values have come off of 6 month highs, broiler production numbers remain under pressure. As evidenced by the chart below, weekly broiler placement numbers are below earlier forecasts by the USDA expecting a decline of approximately -1.8%.

Chart courtesy of “The Daily Livestock Report”

Click to view full size

New crop corn values are finding it hard to rally as the weather forecast turns less worrisome. FCStone’s lead forecaster is expecting much less extreme cold weather as previously forecasted. Temperatures will be warming up throughout next week. He sees temperatures at or above normal in the 6-10 day outlook. Good rain coverage is expected over the next 5 days including parts of winter wheat growing areas.

FCStone Research

A Russian official with the Ag Ministry estimated the 2012 grain crop at 93 million tons, down about 1 million tons from both a previous estimate and last year’s crop.

The International Grains Council yesterday estimated 2012/13 global wheat production at 676 million tons, down 5 MMT from their previous estimate earlier this month, and down 19 million tons from 2011/12; ending stocks were pegged at 206 million tons, down 2 million tons from their last number and 4 million tons lower on the year. World corn output was left at 900 million tons, up from 865 million tons last year, with stocks up 6 million tons from the last figure and 7 million tons vs LY, to 135 million tons.

The IGC followed that up today by pegging 2012/13 (July/June) Chinese corn imports at 6 million tons, up from 4 million tons in 2011/12; Chinese wheat imports were seen more than doubling the current year total to 2.1 million tons in 2012/13.

Today in exports, the USDA announced U.S sales of 120k MT of corn to China for 11/12; 110K MT corn to China for 12/13; 1.44 Mil MT corn to unknown for 12/13; 110K MT soybeans to China for 12/13; 116K MT soybeans to unknown for 12/13.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.30 6+	14.93 1/2 12 1/4+	6.30 3/4 4 3/4+

Front Month Futures

(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.37 2+	13.65 1/2 6 3/4+	6.40 4 1/2 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

World Markets(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,398	0.07%+
Brazil Bovespa	62,780	0.67%+
Mexico Bolsa	39,221	0.39%+
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,330	0.32%+
UK FTSE 100	5,763	0.26%+
Germany DAX	6,754	0.21%+
France CAC 40	3,250	0.65%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,521	-0.43%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,741	-0.33%
China CSI 300	2,626	-0.20%
Taiwan Taiex	7,481	-0.54%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,362	-0.30%
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,982	0.00%
South Korea KOSPI 200	263	0.73%+
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,134	0.02%+

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/26/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-26-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-26T10:03:36Z

Buy Signals:

Day 4 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal
Day 12 of a KC wheat Buy Signal
Day 4 of corn Buy Signal

Sell Signals:

Day 1 of soybean Sell Signal

Overnight soybeans moved into the 1st day of a new Roach Ag Sell Signal.

On this bean Sell Signal we want to sell half of the beans in the bin holding the balance for the next Sell Signal. We want to do the same with new crop. Sell half of the additional bushels you need to get to your pre-harvest percentage holding half for the next bean Sell Signal.

This is a change in our earlier plans as we slice and dice our sales to adjust our marketing to the changes in markets. When market fundamentals strengthen, we divide inventories into smaller pieces so we can have some bushels to sell on additional expected price peaks.

Do space out your sales over the next several days. During the past 12 months we’ve had 8 soybean sell signals that lasted an average of 11 Days. If we exclude the extended 30 day sell signal in February the average length was 8.3 days. The last sell signal lasted 8 days.

Corn prices slid back down and reactivated the recent corn Buy Signal. The inability of corn to move up and away from its recent low is worrisome. This week the corn rally was firmly rejected at its green line 20-day moving average, not a good sign for the bull because it is a signal for technical traders to sell. We know from recent Commitment of Traders’ Reports that the spec funds have already been getting out of corn longs steadily since the third week of March. Spec funds now hold their smallest net long corn futures and options position since the end of December.

I am worried that corn will soon test its recent lows and there is a good chance those lows will give way.

July Chicago wheat was also rejected as it tried to clear its green line 20-day moving average. The other wheat varieties are also struggling to make any upside progress.

It is beginning to look like it will take a while for corn and wheat markets to cycle back up to their next Sell Signal. The price level of those next peaks will be determined mostly by weather in my opinion. And right now, weather is favoring the bears in Chicago.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index recovered to unchanged after probing down to its lowest level in nearly a month. World equities are mixed. European concerns continue.

After a cold snap, which seems less worrisome again today, the U.S. Corn Belt is expected to be warm and wet. Some areas may complain about a slow planting period over the next 2 weeks, but most areas will be off to a pretty good start.

Most world production areas have benign weather forecasts. The former Soviet Union and the North Plains of China are expected to dry off through the 6 to 10 day forecast. Good rains for the double crop corn in Brazil. The size of that second corn crop in Brazil is inching larger on very beneficial rains. Good soybean harvest weather is expected in Argentina.

Click to view full size

U.S. ethanol production fell to 865,000 barrels per day last week, the lowest weekly number since September. As you can see from the chart above, the corn grind has slipped below the weekly pace needed to consume the USDA estimated annual corn for ethanol projection. Early season consumption levels offset the recent slower pace. Some analysts see the USDA maintaining or slightly increasing its corn used for ethanol estimate for the 2011-12 crop year. Others think corn usage will fall short.

Ethanol production is being used rather than added to inventory. Click here to see the graph.

Click to view full size

Export sales of soybeans were strong with net sales of 926,200 tons, up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 483,000 tons for delivery in the 2012-13 marketing year were reported. Click here for the corn and wheat charts.

Net wheat sales of 386,700 tons were up 6 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 357,300 tons for delivery in the 2012-13 marketing year were also reported.

Net corn sales of 645,600 tons were up noticeably from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 180,600 tons for the 2012-13 marketing year were also reported.

FCStone Research

Chinese state-owned researchers Grain.gov, a unit of the CNGOIC, reported that the country may have purchased up to 2 million tons of new-crop (2012-13) corn in the past week, in addition to 1 million tons of old-crop. The CNGOIC noted the $5.50/bu mark (spot CBOT) as a point where more corn could be purchased. Meanwhile, a different state researcher sees China’s corn demand outpacing production by 17.25 million tons in 2020 given a normal yield increase.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that basically all of Argentina’s soybean crop would be unharmed by this week’s frosts, with harvest around half-done and almost the entire crop having reached maturity; their soybean production estimate remains at 44.0 million tons, below the USDA’s current 45 million tons number but well above the Ag Ministry and Rosario Exchange (both near 43.0 million tons) and recent trade ideas in the lower 40’s and even high 30’s.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/26/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.14 3/4 3 3/4+	14.72 1/4 - 1 1/4	6.20 1/2 4 +

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.40 2+	13.64 1/2 - 6	6.30 3 1/2 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,386	-0.07%
Brazil Bovespa	62,590	-0.36%
Mexico Bolsa	39,070	0.78%+
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,310	-0.55%
UK FTSE 100	5,728	0.16%+
Germany DAX	6,691	-0.19%
France CAC 40	3,210	-0.74%
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,562	0.01%+
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,810	0.79%+
China CSI 300	2,631	0.21%+
Taiwan Taiex	7,521	-0.55%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,375	0.34%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,981	0.06%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	262	0.26%+
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,131	-0.12%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/25/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-25-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-25T09:59:26Z

What a powerful soybean market! Beans failed to break down through their green line 20-day moving average last week giving technical traders solid reason to buy beans.

Buy Signals:

Day 3 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal
Day 11 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - None

What a powerful soybean market! Beans failed to break down through their green line 20-day moving average last week giving technical traders solid reason to buy beans.

The spec chart buying was joined by spec fundamental buying as the Argentine bean crop was reduced yet again. Talk is we have seen Chinese exporter buying as well. July beans are now 85 cents higher than when they tested their green line at $14.11 and higher than they have been since the week of September 12, 2008 as you can see in the weekly continuation chart below.

Click to view full size

On the next bean Sell Signal, which will come tomorrow (feel free to start sales today if you like the price), we want to split the beans left in the bin. Sell half of the beans in the bin on the next Sell Signal and the other half on the following one. We want to do the same with new crop. Sell half of what you need to get to your pre-harvest percentage during the next Sell Signal and half on the following.

This is a change in our earlier plans as we slice and dice our sales smaller to adjust our marketing to the changes in markets. When market fundamentals strengthen, we divide inventories into smaller pieces so we can have some bushels to sell on additional expected price peaks.

Usually drought markets reach their peak long before the first bean of the shortened crop hits the combine tank. But this year the Argentine production losses just keep mounting and our plan has to change.

Whenever you start sales on this Sell Signal do space out your sales. During the past 12 months we’ve had 8 soybean sell signals that lasted an average of 11 Days. If we exclude the extended 30 day sell signal in February the average length was 8.3 days. The last sell signal lasted 8 days.

Corn and Chicago wheat prices have moved further up and away from their respective Buy Signals and both markets appear to have completed their recent selloffs. July corn has taken one stab at its green line 20-day moving average while July Chicago wheat is inching its way up though its green line this morning. A solid move up through the green line should bring increased technical buying as a new uptrend becomes established.

We bottomed Chicago wheat with a record or nearly record speculative short position so a clear move above the green line could bring lots of excitement, and sharply higher prices, as shorts run for cover.

It remains to be seen how quickly the corn and wheat markets will cycle back up to the next Sell Signal but we have plenty of confidence to hold off sales until the next Sell Signals.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is slightly weaker this morning with world equities mostly higher. Strong quarterly results for many of the reporting companies have pushed European concerns off the front burner today.

Cold weather for much of the U.S. is called for this weekend into early next week with Sunday now expected to be the coldest day. The forecasts seem a bit less worrisome this morning than yesterday. After the weekend cold snap, temps are expected to be normal to above normal. The U.S. crop moisture map looks favorable.

Click to view full size

Other world production areas have benign weather forecasts for the most part.

FCStone Research

The trade’s Argentine production ideas continue to fall, with Oil World this week cutting their number down to 42-43 million tons, while other private analysts are down to the low 40’s or even throwing out numbers in the high 30’s by the time all is said and done.

The USDA reduced their Argentine soy production number by a million and a half tons in their April S&D Report two weeks ago, but that still left them way up at 45 million tons. Grain traders can’t help but look back at the 2008-09 season, when the USDA’s Argentine number was cut by another 5 million tons (to 34 million tons) in the May S&D and 2 million tons by the final crop estimate, to just 32 million tons.

German grain trading firm Toepfer estimated the 2012 German wheat crop at 22.2 million tons, down slightly from 22.7 million tons last year, with corn at 4.89 million tons, down from 5.2 million tons last season. Toepfer reported strong April rainfall offsetting most of the February winterkill damage for wheat.

March 2012 planting intentions numbers from Statistics Canada yesterday morning reiterated the potential for increased wheat acreage compared to last year, and record canola area; the latter was estimated at 20.4 million acres, up 1.5 million (8.0%) from last year’s previous record, and the sixth straight annual national record acreage.

Canadian spring wheat plantings were pegged 9% higher this year at 17.2 million acres, with durum up over 27% to 5.1 million. Barley is expected to rise 23% to nearly 8 million acres, while beans add 4% to almost 4 million acres, and corn rises 18% to 3.6 million acres for 2012.+

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex_1”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.23 3/4 5 1/2+	14.89 1/4 28+	6.30 5 1/2 +

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.44 1/2 3+	13.68 3/4 16 3/4+	6.38 5 1/2 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,379	0.63%+
Brazil Bovespa	62,590	0.87%+
Mexico Bolsa	38,767	-0.42%
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,321	1.64%+
UK FTSE 100	5,715	0.10%+
Germany DAX	6,680	1.36%+
France CAC 40	3,227	1.83%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.04%+
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,561	0.98%+
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,646	-0.15%
China CSI 300	2,626	0.81%+
Taiwan Taiex	7,563	0.86%+
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,360	0.18%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,980	0.18%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	261	0.02%+
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,151	-0.33%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/24/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-24-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-24T10:11:56Z

Buy Signals:

Day 2 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal
Day 10 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - None

Corn and Chicago wheat prices inched up out of their respective Buy Signals and both markets appear to have completed their recent selloffs. We encouraged corn users and other buyers to use the lower prices as a buying opportunity and hope you got your work done.

It remains to be seen how the market will cycle back up to the next Sell Signal but we have plenty of confidence to hold off selling corn and even wheat until the next Sell Signals.

Beans failed to break down to a Buy Signal on the recent market selloff, instead stopping their decline at their green line 20-day moving average. The power of the buying that came from this positive test of the green line was instructive. The bulls are way more powerful than the bears in the bean market right now. The bean market has surged and will soon give us another Sell Signal.

The next bean Sell Signal was the last one we planned on using to finish old crop bean sales and to finish selling the percentage of new crop beans you wanted to have sold prior to harvest. We want to change our plan and add one more bean Sell Signal to our marketing plans.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is slightly weaker this morning with world equities mixed. European financial, election and leadership concerns continue.

The newest concern was the resignation of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Monday. To U.S. voters this is something unusual, a politician resigning because of an inability to forge a consensus. That seems a far distance from the Velcro-like attachment our politicians have to Washington.

The Dollar continues to strengthen against the Brazilian Real keeping Brazilian farmers soybean prices at record high levels.

Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine soybean estimate another notch yesterday. He now expects the crop to total only 41.5 million tons down 2.0 million from his last estimate. He cited poorer than expected yields as the Argentine bean harvest reached 40% completion. He also held out possibility of the crop estimate shrinking further as late harvested bean yields are discovered and reported.

Click to view full size

U.S. farmers had 28% of their corn crop planted this week, compared to 15% on average and 8% last year. Corn emergence was estimated at 9% compared to 2% average over the past 5 years. Traders expected planting to be over 30% complete. Click here to see the state by state corn plantings.

U.S. soybean plantings were reported at 6% complete compared to 2% on the average. Click here to see the state by state soybean plantings.

Winter wheat ratings slipped 1% to 63% good to excellent. This compares to the 5-year average of 49.8%. The crop was pegged at 42% headed compared to 15% normally. Click here to see the state by state winter wheat ratings.

Spring wheat was estimated to be 57% planted compared to 19% normally.

Cold weather for much of the U.S. is called for this weekend into early next week as cold air moves out of Canada into the Midwest. Some forecasts seem a bit more worrisome this morning than yesterday while others less so. However everybody agrees that it would be smart to take your warmest rain coat to the Drake Relays in Des Moines Saturday. The coldest expected day is still 6 days away so damaging cold forecasts are far from certain.

Good rains expected to continue in Western Europe and Ukraine. Russia is expected to be dry for the next week but 30-day rainfall totals have been above normal in nearly all of the former Soviet Union. Argentina had a hard freeze in Buenos Aires which is not unusual for this date but might have damaged some of the late planted double crop beans.

FCStone Research

Ukraine’s “early” spring grain planting hit 96% this week, at 3.6 million hectares – that’s up from 61% on this date last year. An official from the Ag Ministry sees wheat harvest reaching 16 million tons due to favorable spring weather, compared to an earlier 12 million ton forecast, with total grain output at 45-50 million tons for 2012.

Australia’s Bureau of Statistics reported March 31 wheat stocks at 21.26 million tons, down 9% from the end of February but up 13% from a year ago; milling wheat stocks made up 13.94 million tons (or 66%) of the current total.

Private analysts Celeres yesterday reported Brazil’s summer corn harvest at 90% complete, compared to 75% on the comparable date a year ago; national soybean harvest hit 93% done, up slightly from 91% last year; and forward soybean sales reached 75% this week, up from 60% last season.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.25 1/2 3+	14.48 10 3/4+	6.30 5 +

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.47 1 1/2+	13.51 1/2 10+	6.38 5 1/2 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,367	0.29%+
Brazil Bovespa	62,052	-1.67%
Mexico Bolsa	38,930	-1.02%
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,252	0.30%+
UK FTSE 100	5,678	0.21%+
Germany DAX	6,528	0.08%+
France CAC 40	3,125	0.85%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.04%+
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,468	-0.78%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,677	0.26%+
China CSI 300	2,605	-0.04%
Taiwan Taiex	7,499	0.24%+
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,360	0.18%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,974	0.41%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	261	-0.34%
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,207	0.65%+

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/23/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-23-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-23T10:11:48Z

Buy Signals:

Day 1 of a Minneapolis wheat Buy Signal
Day 3 of a corn Buy Signal
Day 4 of a Chicago wheat Buy Signal
Day 9 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - None

Last week we alerted you to July soybean’s test of their green line 20-day moving average. We advised keeping an open mind and that if the green line support held, it would likely sponsor a move to new highs. On Friday we saw the power of technical buying that can come from a positive test of the green line. To be clear, we didn’t think the move to new highs would take only one day, however.

Although farmers hate to have sold much of their crop and then watch such a big move in one day, my bet is a grain producer’s projected income statement for 2012 and 2013 was better on the close Friday than the close Thursday. Yea! The bigger risk to producers’ statements happens when the price falls down through the green line especially since prices usually go down faster than they went up.

The frantic trade in the soybean market was also (or perhaps mostly) stimulated by rumors that Brazil would restrict soybean exports. Today that rumor appears to have been just a rumor.

Minneapolis wheat slid down into a Buy Signal joining both types of winter wheat. If someone really wanted to buy wheat, we would be more interested in buying spring wheat because farmers reported on the March 30th report they intend to plant 3% fewer spring wheat but 3% more winter wheat acres this year. Because the winter wheat crop looks so good we are not really very interested in buying any type of wheat, however, even though our technical indicators say we should be.

The corn market is back solidly into its Buy Signal and we encourage users to extend coverage out past mid-summer because of the tight old crop supplies. We are not ready to extend coverage for fall needs yet. If beneficial weather continues, traders will dial in trend-line yields and fall prices will get cheaper we think.

We think this Buy Signal is also an opportunity for you to get comfortable with the percentage of your crop you have sold. If you feel like you have sold too much corn, now is the time to buy futures, buy call options or sell put options to get more comfortable. We are not saying there will be higher futures prices this summer; that will be up to Mother Nature.

Those farmers who re-own corn on paper should plan to sell those long positions on our next Sell Signal.

Most farmers should just relax and feel better about all the corn sold on prior Sell Signals now that prices are cheaper. If you haven’t sold as much as you planned by late April, vow to get up to plan on the next Sell Signal.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is stronger this morning cancelling out Friday’s apparent breakdown. World equities, precious metals and energy markets are all under pressure.

Optimism from this weekend’s deal to boost the International Monetary Fund’s crisis-fighting firepower quickly evaporated after release of the Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The European PMI slumped to its lowest level in 34 months as European factories had their worst month since June 2009 and companies said their order books were shrinking and they were cutting jobs in reaction to falling demand.

Chinese factories enjoyed their best performance this year, their latest PMI showed on Monday.

Yield on Spanish and Italian debt edged higher, with Spanish debt now just over 6%.

Rumors of Chinese corn buying have remained just that so far.

Rains were seen in many of the world’s growing regions over the weekend or in near-term forecasts. Cold weather for much of the U.S. is called for early next week, but it is not expected to be cold enough to do damage in today’s predictions.

Click to view full size

Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders reported that during the week ended Tuesday 4-17 managed funds cut their net long corn futures and options positions by 47,242 contracts. Although it is hard to see it on the chart above, funds are now holding their smallest net long futures and option position of 2012 at 146,590 contracts. The specs are leaving the long side of the corn market.

Commercials bought most of the corn contracts spec traders sold, cutting their net short corn position by 33,857 contracts.

Click to view full size

In soybeans, the funds reduced their record net long futures and options by a measly 2,807 contracts but added another 6,008 contracts to their net long meal position, setting a new record of 94,514 contracts.

Spec funds sold 9,876 contracts of Chicago wheat taking their net short back within 5,000 contracts of their late February record.

The USDA’s U.S. Cattle on Feed April 1st were 102% of last year, right at trade estimates. March placements were 93.6% (trade expected 92.3%) and marketings at 96.4% (trade expected 94.5%) of last year

FCStone Research

Chinese customs data showed Q1 corn imports at 1.74 million tons, almost exactly the same amount imported in all of 2011, with nearly all of that from the U.S. Corn imports were 472,000 tons in March, compared with 2,303 tons a year ago; March bean imports came in at 4.83 million tons, up 37% from last year.

India again raised crop estimates this month, with 2011-12 food grain output at a record 252.56 million tons, up from 250.4 million tons previously and 244.8 million tons last year.

Private analysts Informa on Friday estimated that nearly a billion bushels of U.S. corn could be potentially harvested prior to Sept. 1 this year, due to early planting in Illinois and states south/southeast of the Corn Belt; that would be almost double last year and the 5-year average number, and a record by over 200 million bu.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.14 1/4 1 3/4+	14.40 3/4 - 6	6.17 1/4 1 1/2 +

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.36 3/4 0.00	13.52 1/2 - 3 1/2	6.24 1 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,362	-1.00%
Brazil Bovespa	63,104	-0.36%
Mexico Bolsa	39,330	-0.20%
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,255	-2.45%
UK FTSE 100	5,666	-1.84%
Germany DAX	6,558	-2.84%
France CAC 40	3,114	-2.35%
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,542	-0.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,624	-1.84%
China CSI 300	2,606	-0.79%
Taiwan Taiex	7,481	-0.35%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,352	-0.32%
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,962	-1.07%
South Korea KOSPI 200	262	-0.07%
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,097	-1.60%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/22/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 04/20/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-20-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-20T09:37:33Z

Buy Signals -

Day 2 for corn
Day 3 for Chicago wheat
Day 8 for KC wheat

Sell Signals - None

For only a day and even just a few hours, corn prices fell to multi-month lows this past Wednesday. At $6.00 July futures, end users and big specs rushed into buy corn leading prices right back out of our short buying window. As of early this morning, our indicators are giving us a buy in the corn market but only by a thread.

We wanted the corn market to give us a Buy Signal to allow users to extend coverage out past mid-summer. If you got something bought back yesterday or even on Wednesday, good job. If you are still looking for an entry, be cautious. The green light for buying has gone to yellow. Get any buying for summer usage wrapped up.

As we said yesterday, we also wanted this Buy Signal so farmers would be able to make any adjustments to square up their sales to their attitude for summer markets. If you feel like you have sold too much corn, now is the time to buy futures, buy call options or sell put options to get more comfortable. We are not saying there will be higher futures prices this summer; that will be up to Mother Nature.

Those farmers who re-own corn on paper should plan to sell those long positions on our next Sell Signal.

Most farmers should just relax and feel better about all the corn sold on prior Sell Signals now that prices are cheaper. If you haven’t sold as much as you planned by late April, vow to get up to plan on the next Sell Signal.

We are not very interested in buying winter wheat even though our technical indicators say we should be buying.

July beans bounced higher from a test of their green line 20-day moving average. November beans broke through the green line but look to trace back higher. We always try to keep an open mind when markets are approaching their green line. After the overnight close, the bean market appears to still have plenty of buyers committed to the uptrend and was not ready to change trends. As long as the green line holds, prices are likely to rally back to the recent highs.

We are waiting for Sell Signals before recommending any sales on wheat. For that matter, we are waiting for Sell Signals to sell any of the grains.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is weaker this morning, trading down through the green line. If this slide in the Dollar follows through, look for the Dollar Index to find support at the low side of the existing range around 78.5-79.0.

European leaders continue to look for help in managing the ongoing problem of weak growth and massive debts. The rather not hard working people of Greece and France are only marking time before a new political leader steps in with promises to fix everything with yet another new plan, causing more unrest and flux for the markets to digest.

Look for the Chinese to stimulate growth with at least one more reduction in bank reserve requirements in the near future. As growth concerns generated by China’s slower than expected GDP numbers last week, it is entirely possible to see China initiate another boost in loans and easier money policy to help small businesses weather the storm.

Traders have been discussing news the Japanese will not buy corn from the EU or Ukraine due to quality problems, leaving the U.S. to get all of that business until fall. This idea and rumors of China buying has provided solid support to old crop corn values.

One of China’s top soybean producing regions (Heilongjiang province) is experiencing the worst drought in many years. It is still early in their growing season there but expect traders to watch the pattern closely.

Rumors of Chinese corn buying have remained just that so far. Current corn values for U.S. originated corn are under Chinese supplied corn. It normally takes a several days to confirm Chinese purchases and whether they buy old crop or new crop has different ideas tied to the quality of old crop supplies available versus pure demand growth. Depending on Mother Nature, current new crop values could be cheap or, far too expensive.

FCStone’s lead forecaster is looking for more rain in the Eastern Corn Belt for this weekend. The 6-10 day outlook remains dryer but he sees more normal moisture patterns developing later. Cold temperatures remain in the forecast for the northeastern areas in the next 2-3 nights. Overall temperatures are still expected to normalize at the front end of next week.

FCStone Research

The Argentine Ag Ministry yesterday cut their 2011/12 corn and soy estimates once again—corn was estimated at 20.3 million tons, down from 21.2 million tons previously, while beans were pegged at 42.9 million tons (vs 44 million tons last month).

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.25 3/4 4 3/4+	14.21 3/4 6+	6.23 1/2 - 1 1/4

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.42 1/2 3/4+	13.49 6 1/2+	6.29 1/4 - 3/4

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,379	0.45%+
Brazil Bovespa	63,335	-0.49%
Mexico Bolsa	39,366	0.16%+
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,309	1.04%+
UK FTSE 100	5,762	0.31%+
Germany DAX	6,731	0.89%+
France CAC 40	3,190	0.50%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,561	-0.28%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	21,011	0.07%+
China CSI 300	2,627	1.19%+
Taiwan Taiex	7,507	-1.52%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,367	0.09%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,994	-0.46%
South Korea KOSPI 200	262	-1.41%
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,374	-0.74%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/19/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 03/23/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-19-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-19T10:01:39Z

Buy Signals - Day 1 of corn Buy Signal, Day 2 of a Chicago wheat Buy Signal and Day 7 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - None

Yesterday’s sharply lower trade took July corn down to within a fraction of a cent of its December 15, 2011 low tick. Another penny lower and July corn would have fallen to a price not seen in over 13 months. Yesterday’s decline also triggered a Buy Signal in corn.

We hoped for this Buy Signal to allow users to extend coverage out past mid-summer. Cash corn is and will be in tight supply. If you need to buy more for summer usage, get busy.

We also wanted this Buy Signal so farmers would be able to make any adjustments to square up their sales to their attitude for summer markets. If you feel like you have sold too much corn, now is the time to buy futures, buy call options or sell put options to get more comfortable. We are not saying there will be higher futures prices this summer; that will be up to Mother Nature.

However, if you were cussing your prior sales on the last corn Sell Signal now is the time to buy something – if you are so inclined. Plan on liquidating any purchases you make now on the next Sell Signal.

Most farmers should just relax and feel better about all the corn sold on prior Sell Signals now that prices are cheaper. If you haven’t sold as much as you planned by late April, vow to get up to plan on the next Sell Signal.

We are not very interested in buying winter wheat even though our technical indicators say we should be buying.

Notice that July beans held on the test of their green line 20-day moving average. We always try to keep an open mind when markets are approaching their green line. After the overnight close, the bean market appears to still have plenty of buyers committed to the uptrend and was not ready to change trends. As long as the green line holds, prices are likely to rally back to the recent high.

We are waiting for Sell Signals before recommending any sales on wheat. For that matter, we are waiting for Sell Signals to see any of the grains.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is sharply higher this morning and world equity markets are mixed.

Initial jobless claims were again large at 386,000 in the week of April 14. The numbers were down 2,000 but follow a severe 26,000 jump in the prior week. The latest week and the prior week levels are the highest so far this year. The four-week average of 374,750 is the highest since January and is up more than 5,000 vs. levels in March.

Spain sold a fraction more than its €2.5bn target in 10 and two-year bonds. Yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds were 5.74 per cent, up from 5.40 per cent in the last auction in January. Analysts were encouraged that 10-year bonds accounted for the majority and that demand for both bonds was higher than at previous auctions, with bids for more than double the amount sold.

The results helped overcome fears that Spanish banks, responsible for much of the buying of Madrid’s bonds this year, were running out of cash after receiving cheap three-year loans from the European Central Bank.

France’s auction on Thursday also went smoothly as it sold €7.97bn in three, four and five-year bonds. It received more than double that in bids.

Weather in most production areas of the world still looks beneficial in current weather forecasts.

Even though we had ample rain in some of the dry areas of the Corn Belt, this week’s drought map does not show much improvement. Click here to see the comparison to last week.

Click to view all export sales charts

Export sales were down across the board, except for new crop beans, this week – click on the graph above to see all grain sales. Net corn sales of 300,400 tons were down 69 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales reductions of 2,400 tons for the 2012-13 marketing year were reported.

Net soybean sales of 374,300 tons were down 19 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales were large at 845,000 tons for delivery in the 2012-13 marketing year and were mainly for China who bought 615,000 tons.

Net wheat sales of 365,900 tons were down 19 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 76,300 tons for delivery in the 2012-13 marketing year were also announced.

FCStone Research

Traders are expecting Japanese feed manufacturers to finalize prices shortly on another 1.6 million tons of corn for May-June shipment, as they have yet to lock in the remainder of their 2012 Q2 purchases (which total around 3.2 million tons).

Argentine industry leaders and officials are considering increasing the country’s corn export quota by 3-4 million tons – the current level is 7.5 million tons – to help reduce restrictions on farmers and aid domestic production.

A USDA attaché in Mexico estimated the country’s 2012-13 corn production at 21 million tons, compared to 18.6 million tons in the current year.

An attaché in the European Union pegged the bloc’s 2012-13 total grain output at 284 million tons, in line with 2011-12 production and keeping stocks levels tight.

An attaché in Indonesia pegged 2011-12 wheat imports there at 7.4 million tons, up 12% from last year’s 6.6 million ton figure.

The United Nations estimated Iraq’s cereal import requirements at 5.1 million tons for 2011-12, a record high due to lower domestic production and higher demand; that amount includes 3.7 million tons of wheat and 1.3 million tons of rice.

India’s Farm Ministry officials raised their 2011-12 food grain production forecast by another 2 million tons this month to a record 252.56 million tons, up from 244.78 million tons last season.+

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/19/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.14 3/4 13+	14.23 15 1/4+	6.19 1/2 8 3/4 +

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.39 10 1/4+	13.51 13 1/4+	6.25 9 1/4 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,382	0.23%+
Brazil Bovespa	63,647	0.30%+
Mexico Bolsa	39,366	-0.05%
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,309	-0.81%
UK FTSE 100	5,764	0.33%+
Germany DAX	6,697	-0.52%
France CAC 40	3,221	-0.58%
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,588	-0.82%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,995	1.03%+
China CSI 300	2,596	-0.15%
Taiwan Taiex	7,623	0.23%+
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,363	0.32%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	3,008	0.25%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	266	-0.24%
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,504	0.64%+

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/18/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 03/23/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-18-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-18T09:53:40Z

We are not very interested in buying winter wheat even though we are in the 1st day of a Buy Signal for Chicago wheat and 6th for KC wheat.

Buy Signals - Day 1 of a Chicago wheat Buy Signal and Day 6 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - None

We are not very interested in buying winter wheat even though we are in the 1st day of a Buy Signal for Chicago wheat and 6th for KC wheat.

Overnight, soybeans lost their Sell Signal. We plan on using one additional soybean Sell Signal for sales and have advised keeping some bushels to sell on that next Sell Signal.

We included charts of the 2011 bean market in our Thursday and Friday letters last week so you could refresh your memory about how big the breaks were last year. We also wanted you to see how each of the big breaks followed bean prices falling through the green line 20-day moving average.

Notice that July beans have not fallen below their green line 20-day moving average since February 1st. In the process beans rallied about $2.35 from the close on January 31st to the April 10th peak. That is a long way without a meaningful correction. The strong, steady upward move was thanks to a steady accumulation of new long positions by speculative buyers.

Overnight July beans moved down near their green line 20-day moving average. When this happens we keep an open mind and let the market tell us if it is ready to change directions. If the green line holds, prices are likely to rally back to the recent high. If the green line is broken with power, the sell off could get very ugly very quickly. I don’t know what will happen and will let the market tell me.

Nearby corn fell down through its green line 20-day moving average last week, rallied once to test the line and has been under pressure since. We hope corn prices will slide down to a Buy Signal where producers can square up their sales to their attitude for summer markets and users can extend coverage.

Minneapolis wheat broke down through its green line 20-day moving average and slid further away from that resistance since.

We are waiting for one last winter wheat Sell Signal to wrap up sales, but Chicago and KC wheat prices are discounting an improving crop in the field. We see little reason for winter wheat prices to get any better right now. There is a massive speculative short position we are paying attention to that could cause a big short covering rally. If we don’t get a big rally, we may have to hold off on sales until after harvest.

Yesterday, July KC wheat, July Minneapolis wheat and July soybeans had a larger volume of trade than May contracts. We believe the month with the largest volume is the most reliable indicator of market direction. When the biggest trade volume switches delivery month, we tie our Sell and Buy Signal indicator to that new biggest volume month. Notice we use those July deliveries in the charts to the right.

May corn and May Chicago wheat are still the volume leaders and we will continue to tie our Signals to the May contract until there is more volume in the July Deliveries.

Sometimes readers ask, “What is the Sell Signal on new crop corn?”

Our answer is that new crop contracts have the same Sell Signal since we always derive our signals for all months from the month with the largest volume. Yesterday May corn had a volume of 122,019 contracts while December corn traded 47,347 contracts. We believe the price action in May corn is the best predictor of what’s ahead. Said another way, “the dog’s nose is a better indicator of where it is going than its tail.”

Although we post the high volume month to the right, we also plot those same Sell and Buy Signals on the new crop price chart so readers can see what our track record has been.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is sharply higher this morning and world equity markets are stronger with the exception of European markets that all lower.

The Spanish government short-term debt auction went well but at higher yields. Everybody will be focused on their longer term debt expected to be auctioned tomorrow. European worries are increasing.

Weather in most production areas of the world looks beneficial in current weather forecasts. There is a cold snap expected in parts of the U.S. this weekend but little or no damage is expected. Good rains are expected in Europe, the former Soviet Union and China.

Click to view full size

The USDA pegged the U.S. corn crop plantings at 17% compared to 5% normally. Click here to see the state by state progress.

U.S. winter wheat ratings improved to 64% good to excellent up 3% from last week and 14% from the 5-year average. Winter was 29% headed compared to 8% normally. Click here to see the state by state winter wheat data. Spring wheat plantings increased to 37% compared to 9% normally on this date.

FCStone Research

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry yesterday reported spring grain planting reaching 83% complete, or 3.29 million hectares; that’s ahead of 61% on the same date last season.

Spring barley hit 83% planted at 2.54 million hectares, while spring wheat totaled 82% done at 224,000 hectares, and oats came in at 89% complete, at 283,000 hectares. Only 32,000 hectares of corn had been planted as of yesterday, or 1% of the total area.

The state statistics committee pegged April 1 grain stocks at 17.1 million tons, up 70% from April 2011. That included 7.1 million tons wheat, 7.4 million tons corn, 1.7 million tons barley, and 200,000 tons of rye.

On-farm stocks totaled 7.8 million tons, up 76% from last year’s figure.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.15 1/4 - 1 1/4	14.12 - 13 3/4	6.14 1/2 - 1

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.31 1/4 1 1/2+	13.43 - 12 1/2	6.19 3/4 - 1/2

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,372	-0.21%
Brazil Bovespa	62,760	1.24%+
Mexico Bolsa	39,366	0.72%+
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,329	-1.60%
UK FTSE 100	5,749	-0.31%
Germany DAX	6,735	-0.97%
France CAC 40	3,239	-1.62%
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,667	2.14%+
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,781	1.06%+
China CSI 300	2,600	2.28%+
Taiwan Taiex	7,605	0.25%+
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,349	1.40%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	3,001	0.47%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	266	1.10%+
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,392	0.20%+

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/17/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 03/23/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-17-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-17T09:51:39Z

Greg Milkovich, of our Downers Grove, Illinois office appeared on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day this weekend. You can see these programs and Greg’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: U.S. Farm Report & Ag Day.

On TV

Buy Signals - Day 5 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - Day 8 of a soybean Sell Signal

We are not very interested in buying winter wheat even though we are in the 5th day of a Buy Signal.

Today will the 8th day of a soybean Sell Signal and it is time to wrap up this round of soybean sales. We plan on using one additional soybean Sell Signal for sales and have advised keeping some bushels to sell on that next Sell Signal.

During the past 12 months, there have been 8 soybean Sell Signals that have lasted an average of 10.38 days. If we take out the unusual extended 30 day February Sell Signal the average length has been 7.75 days.

Nearby corn fell down through its green line 20-day moving average last week, rallied once to test the line and has been under pressure since. We hope corn will slide down to a Buy Signal where producers can square up their sales to their attitude for summer markets and users can extend coverage.

Minneapolis wheat broke down through its green line 20-day moving average and has been under pressure since. Spring wheat is now in a downtrend and the green line has become resistance.

We are waiting for one last winter wheat Sell Signal to wrap up sales, but Chicago and KC wheat prices are discounting an improving crop in the field. We see little reason for winter wheat prices to get any better right now. We may have to hold off on sales until after harvest.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is slightly weaker this morning and world equity markets are mixed.

Today’s Spanish government auction found more buyers than expected but the rates were still high. There 10-year debt is trading back under 6% which seems to be a magic number to financial analysts. If rates are above 6% everybody gets worried and if below, not so much.

Grain and oilseed markets bounced overnight, but there is not much new to stimulate trade today.

Corn export inspections were the second best for the season last week. Wheat inspections were the 5th best for the marketing year. Soybeans were the 5th worst for their marketing year. Click the graph below to see all the charts.

Click to view all charts

Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his estimate of the Argentine soybean crop by 2.0 million tons to 43.5 million tons yesterday in his weekly report. He cited continuing dry conditions in northern Argentina as the reason. The USDA forecast Argentine production at 45 million tons earlier this month.

We did not get a U.S. Crop Progress report from the USDA yesterday due to electrical problems caused by a small fire. We expect progress and condition reports this afternoon. Traders expect to see U.S. corn plantings at 17 to 25% as many farmers planted a few of their acres as soon as their crop insurance date was reached and just ahead of the expected widespread rain.

Wheat ratings are expected to improve from last week.

Europe is expected to have a cold snap, but weather in most production areas of the world looks favorable. Good rains are expected in Chinese wheat areas.

FCStone Research

Australian export data showed wheat shipments to Iran of 91,500 tons in Jan-Feb, already well above 61,400 tons shipped all last year and no exports in 2010-11. The USDA is currently projecting Iran to import 2 million tons of wheat by June, ten times their earlier February estimate.

The China National Grain and Oils Information Center yesterday estimated that the country’s April soybean imports would reach 4.63 million tons, down from 4.83 million tons in March but well above 3.88 million tons last April. They also said that actual imports could wind up higher than the forecast, after the Commerce Ministry had estimated soy imports at 5.63 million tons earlier this month.

The CNGOIC is projecting imports at 5.2 million tons in May, with Q2 imports at 15.3 million tons (compared to 13.33 million tons in the first quarter of 2012) and calendar 2012 soybean imports “exceeding” the USDA’s 55 million tons.

The U.S. Grains Council says that China could take Japan’s spot as the top global corn importer by just 2014—they are at 4 million tons compared to Japan’s 16 million tons this year, but the USGC sees China importing 5.5 million tons next season.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.22 1/4 - 1	14.26 1/2 6 1/2+	6.19 2 3/4 +

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.26 3/4 1/2+	13.55 1/2 5 1/2+	6.24 2 3/4 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,372	0.61%+
Brazil Bovespa	62,121	-0.22%
Mexico Bolsa	39,084	-0.32%
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,334	1.44%+
UK FTSE 100	5,708	0.74%+
Germany DAX	6,699	1.11%+
France CAC 40	3,247	1.31%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	0.00%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,465	-0.06%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,562	-0.23%
China CSI 300	2,542	-1.25%
Taiwan Taiex	7,586	-1.86%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,289	-0.31%
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,987	-0.18%
South Korea KOSPI 200	263	-0.44%
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,358	1.21%+

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/16/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 03/23/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-16-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-16T10:07:39Z

On TV

Buy Signals - Day 4 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - Day 7 of a soybean Sell Signal

We are not very interested in buying winter wheat even though we are in the 4th day of a Buy Signal.

Today will the 7th day of a soybean Sell Signal and it is time to wrap up this round of soybean sales. We plan on using one additional soybean Sell Signal for sales and have advised keeping some bushels to sell on that next Sell Signal.

During the past 12 months, there have been 8 soybean Sell Signals that have lasted an average of 10.38 days. If we take out the unusual extended 30 day February Sell Signal the average length has been 7.75 days.

Nearby corn fell down through its green line 20-day moving average last week, rallied once to test the line then slid to new recent lows. The confirmation of a new downtrend will likely bring increased technical selling. We hope corn will slide down to a Buy Signal where producers can square up their sales to their attitude for summer markets and users can extend coverage.

Minneapolis wheat broke down through its green line 20-day moving average overnight. As our readers know, we watch the performance of a market closely, but with an open mind, when price is close to the green line. If prices move down through the green line (as happened last week in corn) it signals the beginning of a downtrend to us. Spring wheat just broke the line.

We are waiting for one last winter wheat Sell Signal to wrap up sales, but Chicago and KC wheat prices are discounting an improving crop in the field. We see little reason for winter wheat prices to get any better right now. We may have to hold off on sales until after harvest.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is stronger this morning and world equity markets are mixed.

China surprised traders with their announcement that they will loosen the Yuan’s daily trading limits. The move to widen the currency’s trading range, which went into effect Monday, doesn’t eliminate Beijing’s tight grip on the Yuan. China’s central bank will still set a daily reference rate for its currency. The change is expected to allow the Yuan to strengthen faster, something world traders have advocated for years.

Spanish Government 10-year debt inched over 6%, the highest since November with Italian debt nearly at that same level. The Spanish financial situation promises to be a bigger problem (mostly because of its size) to solve than Greece and is likely to worry markets more.

The biggest grain news this morning is the welcome weekend rain across nearly the entire Corn Belt. The following NOAA map of 7day rainfall shows that most corn producers received at least an inch of rain last week with many getting between 2 and 3 inches. Unfortunately the weather also included tornadoes that cut a deadly swath across several states.

Click to view full size

Today’s Crop Progress Report is expected to peg U.S. corn plantings at 20 to 25% as many farmers planted a few of their acres as soon as their crop insurance date was reached and just ahead of the expected widespread rain.

The NOPA soybean crush for March was released this morning. The monthly crush totaled 140.5 million bushels, 1.0 million below the average trade guess but over 4 million bushels larger than the prior month. Cumulative Sep‐March (7 months) crush of 958 million bushels is 2.0% less than last year with the USDA looking for a 1% year to year decline.

Click to view full report

The Commitment of Traders Report showed that the managed spec funds continued to add to their net long oilseed positions through last Tuesday. During the prior week, the big specs added a net 7,200 contracts of bean longs, 16,300 meal longs and 3,700 soy oil contracts. The big specs reduced their net corn longs by 8,900 contracts during the same week. Their net corn future and option longs have fallen from 261,691 to 193,832 during the past 4 weeks.

FCStone Research

Russian railway operator Rusagrotrans reported that Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have exported a combined 45.3 million tons of grain so far in 2011-12 (July -March). They expect total 2011-12 exports (through June) to reach 59.2 million tons.

Russian exports stand at 22.3 million tons so far, with the full year estimated at 25.7 million tons; Ukraine is at 15.3 million tons, with the full year seen at 21 million tons and Kazak has shipped 7.7 million tons of grain, with total 2011-12 exports seen reaching 12.5 million tons.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.23 - 6 1/4	14.26 1/2 - 10 1/4	6.17 1/4 - 6 1/4

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.28 1/2 - 8 1/2	13.51 - 10 3/4	6.23 1/4 - 7

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,368	0.24%+
Brazil Bovespa	62,121	-1.53%
Mexico Bolsa	39,359	-1.01%
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,300	0.39%+
UK FTSE 100	5,683	0.56%+
Germany DAX	6,618	0.51%+
France CAC 40	3,215	0.80%+
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	-0.11%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,471	-1.74%
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,611	-0.44%
China CSI 300	2,574	-0.25%
Taiwan Taiex	7,730	-0.75%
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,302	-0.49%
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,992	0.14%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	264	-0.89%
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,151	0.33%+

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/15/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 03/23/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary

04-13-12 Daily Grain Plan

2012-04-13T09:37:36Z

Greg Milkovich, of our Downers Grove, Illinois office will appear on U.S. Farm Report and Ag Day this weekend. You can see these programs and Greg’s analysis on your local TV station or by going to: U.S. Farm Report & Ag Day.

On TV

Buy Signals - Day 3 of a KC wheat Buy Signal

Sell Signals - Day 6 of soybean Sell Signal

We are reluctant to buy winter wheat even though we are in the 3rd day of a Buy Signal.

Soybeans regained their Sell Signal on yesterday’s strong trading session. Today will the 6th day of a soybean Sell Signal.

On this Sell Signal, May beans have consolidated around the $14.30 level and November at $13.73. Locking up current soybean price levels is a good way to offset some of the risk in a declining new crop corn market. Get comfortable and sit tight.

Yesterday’s soybean move suggests the soy market is not ready to roll over, not quite anyway. Click here to take a look at how last year’s big markets came apart each time the price fell below its green line 20-day moving average.

Nearby corn remains 5 cents below the green line which has now become a level of resistance at $6.43 bushel. Watch for price action as we near the green line. New crop corn remains in a downtrend just below the green line 20-day moving average.

We are waiting for one last winter wheat Sell Signal to wrap up sales, but Chicago and KC wheat prices are discounting an improving crop in the field. We see little reason for winter wheat prices to get any better right now. We may have to hold off on sales until after harvest.

With so many unknowns in the current grain market that remain in front of us, we feel the best thing to do is get comfortable and do nothing. We are done making any grain sales until we get our next Sell Signal.

Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index is stronger this morning but just barely after yesterdays’ sharp decline 39 cents. Equity markets closed higher on optimistic ideas China’s latest growth numbers would be better than expectations.

Early this morning, optimistic expectations were cooled with China’s latest growth numbers coming in at 8.1% for the first quarter, compared to 8.9% in the prior quarter. Depending on the survey, analysts expected a number closer to 8.4%. Now traders will have to look ahead. Even though the latest numbers are the slowest pace in almost 3 years, this kind of number is better than 3 month ago thinking and suggests maybe, China can say the worst is behind them.

Unless equity markets get more positive corporate earnings on Wall Street, expect oil and equity markets to look back to weakness in the worrisome U.S. jobless numbers released yesterday.

The key to soybean strength is U.S. exports to China. Yesterday’s weekly soybean exports were sharply higher when compared to last year when Brazil production was record large at 75.5 million tons. U.S. exporters are expected to benefit from fewer soybeans available from Brazil and Argentine suppliers than we thought last fall.

Click to view full size

FCStone’s weather forecast sees the biggest change as of this morning to warmer temperatures from early next week forward, reducing any further chance for freezing overnight lows.

Soybean export sales (at 16.9 million bushels) beat the comparable week last year for the tenth straight week; cumulative sales over that span have exceeded last year by more than 130 million bushels. Bean sales are quickly closing the gap vs. inspections and shipments—all three measures stand between 277 and 308 million bushels behind last year’s respective paces, still with 40% of the ‘11/12 marketing year yet to go, and the USDA now expecting a 211-mbu year-to-year bean export decline.

FCStone Research

Click to view full size

The Buenos Aires Exchange cut their 2011/12 Argentine soybean production Estimate by a million tonnes this week to 44 MMT, now down more than 10% (-5 MMT) on the year, and matching the current estimate from the Argentine
Ag Ministry; those numbers are right in line with key trade numbers from the Rosario Exchange (43.1 MMT) and the USDA (45 MMT). Their steady corn crop estimate of 20.8 MMT sits below the Ag Min (21.2 MMT) and the USDA (21.5 MMT), but above the Rosario Exchange’s 19.8 MMT number.

Average Grain Prices

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Corn

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Soybeans

Click here for the monthly average futures prices for Chicago Wheat

Success Charts

~~soybean~~-and-wheat-ex”>Click here for the U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Export Sales Historical Charts

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Report

Click here for the 04/12/12 Export Sales Charts

Click here for the Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

Click here for Weekly Grain Export Inspections Charts

This report is for information purposes only. Much is the writers’ opinion, past performance is not indicative of future results.

May ’12 Corn	May ’12 Beans	May ’12 Wheat
6.38 1/4 3/4+	14.42 1/4 1 1/4+	6.37 3/4 - 1 1/2

Front Month Futures
(markets as of 7:30am cdt)

Dec ’12 Corn	Nov ’12 Beans	Jul ’12 Wheat
5.46 - 3/4	13.72 - 3/4	6.44 3/4 1/4 +

New Crop 2012
(markets as of )
7:30am cdt

(markets as of 7:30 am cdt)World Markets

Americas (overnight futures)
S & P 500	1,380	-0.43%
Brazil Bovespa	61,350	2.83%+
Mexico Bolsa	39,359	0.00%
Europe
Europe DJ Stoxx	2,319	-1.42%
UK FTSE 100	5,681	-0.51%
Germany DAX	6,674	-1.03%
France CAC 40	3,226	-1.35%
Libor Interest Rates	0.47	-0.11%
Asia-Pacific
Japan Nikkei 225	9,638	0.67%+
Hong Kong Hang Seng	20,701	1.84%+
China CSI 300	2,580	0.39%+
Taiwan Taiex	7,788	1.64%+
Australia S&P/ASX 200	4,323	1.00%+
Singapore FTSE Straits	2,988	0.33%+
South Korea KOSPI 200	267	1.10%+
Bombay BSE Sensex 30	17,095	-1.37%

Click here to see the full size Dollar Index Chart

Click here to see the full size Corn Chart

Click here to see the full size Bean Chart

Click here to see the full size Meal Chart

Click here to see the full size KC Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Minn Wheat Chart

Click here to see the full size Chicago Wheat Chart

Weather News

The lastest on weather is here

Click here for the 04/12/12 NOAA 30 Day Departure from Normal Precipitation

Click here to view the current US Drought Monitor Map

USDA Supply and Demand

Click here for the April 2012 USDA WASDE Summary

Click here for the U.S. Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the World Suppy/Demand Graphs

Click here for the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board at the April 2012 Lockup briefing to the USDA Secretary

Cattle and Livestock Reports

Click here for the 03/30/12 NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

Click here for the 03/23/12 USDA Cattle on Feed Summary