If you have questions or want to discuss your fertilizer situation with us, give us a call at 800-622-7628. |
All recommendations below are specific to cash market fertilizer purchases
and are in no way recommendations to take or exit a futures position. |
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Buy Signals
• Urea - The retail urea market has plunged to the lowest level since October 2021. Where prices go from here will largely depend on spring weather and how much spring demand we see. You should be fully booked on pre-plant urea needs. Plan on keeping side-dress needs to the spot market.
• UAN - UAN has also been in a steady downtrend this year and is down to October 2021 levels as well. Our advice is the same as urea, you should be 100% covered on UAN pre-plant needs, but hold off on booking UAN for side-dress.
• Ammonia - The story is the same in our retail ammonia price average with prices finally starting to break lower in a meaningful way to start the year. Your pre-plant ammonia needs should already be covered at this time.
• DAP/MAP - We have had some downward pressure to retail phosphate prices since last summer, but not to the extent that we would like to see especially compared with the declines seen in the nitrogen products. As it stands, there does not seem to be much upside to prices even heading into a period of increased demand. We recommend you go hand to mouth on spring phosphate purchases. Hold off on purchases for the fall as well.
• Potash - While the fundamentals on potash are the same for phosphates, retail prices have seen a more meaningful decline. There is probably a small amount downside in the next month, but it would depend more on if your retailer has already reset prices or not. You should have spring potash needs covered at this time. Do not buy for the fall yet.
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Urea: -
Plunging natural gas prices, falling crop prices, and fears of oversupply continue to weigh on the NOLA barge market for urea. Spot prices slid lower again last month, down $10/ton to $315/ton.
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Spring pricing in the CME Urea futures also continues to mimic spot prices with April through September futures between $315/ton and $320/ton, a decline of about $15/ton over the last month. Fall futures are priced at $325/ton, not much premium to current prices. As it stands, the futures market is indicating no upside risks through the end of the year.
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Our spot retail price average in the Midwest continues to fall along with other levels of the marketing chain, moving $27/ton lower to $620/ton. This is the lowest the average has been since October 2021.
Outlook: The path of least resistance seems lower, but there will be some measurable amount of demand ahead, regardless of what the weather may be. You should have your pre-plant needs booked, but hold off on side-dress tons unless you are offered a great deal. |
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UAN: - Retail UAN prices in the Midwest have fallen $28/ton since the last update to $526/ton on a 32% basis. On a 28% basis, UAN prices average $464/ton in the Midwest.
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Like urea, the rout continues in Chicago UAN futures as well, with spring months down about $30/ton over the last month to just below $265/ton on a 32% basis. Futures contracts have not been released yet for summer or fall months.
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Russia recently increased their export quota for UAN. This should have limited market impact given how much of a decline has already occurred in Gulf and International UAN prices.
Outlook: Producers should have all spring pre-plant UAN needs covered at this time. Hold off on side-dress requirements, we will likely recommend to buy in spot market. |
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Ammonia: -
Spot ammonia retail prices in the Midwest fell another $50/ton to $1088/ton on average in the month of March.
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The Tampa ammonia contract between Yara and Mosaic was settled $155/mt lower to $435/mt for the month of April. This is the lowest price since February 2021 and likely about as low as the contract will get in the short to medium term barring a complete collapse in grain prices. This is a fairly strong indication that we should see lower retail prices into the summer and fall months.
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Weather so far has been less than ideal for fieldwork and pre-plant fertilizer applications. This should weight on prices, however, forecasts for most of April appear warm and dry. As always, while supply may be sufficient across the country, there will always be areas with localized outages especially if there is a period of ideal weather. Make sure you are covered for most of your needs.
Outlook: As is the case with other nitrogen products, you should have 100% of your spring pre-plant needs already taken care of at this time. If you use ammonia for side-dress, hold off on purchasing and keep those needs to the spot market. |
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Phosphates: -
Prompt DAP barges moved a slight $5/ton higher to the $610/ton level, which represents the first month-over-month price increase in barge prices since March of 2022.
- The CME futures market for DAP (only April and May currently) are also up slightly in March. We are awaiting the release of summer futures contracts.
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Our retail price average in the Midwest continues to move lower, albeit at a slow pace, down $17/ton lower to $812/ton since the last update. Retail prices almost have to continue to move lower from this point, with prompt barges $200/ton below our retail average.
Outlook: Unless there is an escalation in Eastern Europe causing a decline of supplies from Russia or Belarus, prices will continue to move lower from here. We do not recommend any purchases for the spring unless you are offered a price around $700/ton or lower. With such limited upside and low concern of supply issues, it is ok to keep your spring needs to the spot market. There is no need to book for the fall at this time.
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Potash: - Average Midwest retail potash prices slipped $27/ton to $628/ton since the last update. This is the lowest level for retail prices since September 2021.
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Potash barges have fallen $25/ton to around $375/ton, while wholesale prices dropped $30/ton to $450/ton. Even with the continued decline in our retail price average, there probably could be room for some more downside yet but that will likely occur after we pass the rush of spring applications.
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Of note – Brazil’s potash imports are at the highest level since last summer. This signals a healthy appetite for inputs in the South American country despite recent declines in crop prices. We will have to keep an eye on that to see if it continues, as that may have an impact on fall potash prices if it persists.
Outlook: Even though there may still be some downside ahead, we have seen enough of a decline to recommend you cover your spring potash needs. Hold off on fall needs at this time. |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag has been dedicated to helping farmers make better cash grain sales for over 20 years. Our Daily Grain Plan and Sell Signals have become part of the grain marketing strategy on thousands of farms across the country. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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