7 December October USDA Supply & Demand December 7, 2020 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand Supply/Demand, USDA, WASDE 0 The USDA pegged the U.S. wheat carryout at 883 million bushels, 42 million bushels below their September report and almost exactly what the trade expected. The smaller stocks came from a 0.4 average bushel per acre reduction, slight adjustment in usage and the carry-in stocks revision. The USDA pegged U.S. corn yield down 0.1 bushel per acre, slightly larger than trade estimates. Harvest acreage was reduced by 1 million acres and usage was cut by 100 million bushels, split between export and domestic. Corn ending stocks were reduced but were slightly higher than trade estimates and growers still have more than 2 billion bushels scheduled for a birthday. The USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 51.9 bpa, unchanged from last month, but 0.3 bushels bigger than traders expected. The positive news came in the bean harvested acreage which was also cut by 1 million acres. In addition, exports were increased by 75 million bushels. The bean carryover estimate came in at 290 million bushels, well below trade estimates of 369 million bushels and last month’s estimate of 460 million bushels. If you look back at last week’s Thursday Daily Grain Plan, you will see our forecast came to nearly the same bean carryover number. Be careful about becoming too optimistic about today’s estimates, traders have traded these numbers for at least a week. Here is why/how the government changed their numbers. Source: USDA, reuters, StoneX Related Posts October USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn and bean yield estimates Quick summary US corn yield as expected US soybean yield smaller than expected US wheat carryout larger than expected due to lower demand The USDA’s October corn yield and production estimates were smaller than the September numbers but largely in line with trade estimates. New crop corn carryout was reduced from September but by only about half as much as trade expected. December corn was only a few cents lower following the report release. The surprise this month came from a lower than expected US soybean yield estimate. The USDA pegged the US bean yield at 49.8 bpa, compared to 50.5 bpa last month. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean yield. The 49.8 bpa estimate matched the lowest trade guess. Soybean production was lowered to 4.31 billion bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 3% from 2021. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean production estimate. November soybeans rallied sharply following the reports and returned all the way to the green line 20-day moving average, ending our soybean Buy Signal. New crop ... October 2023 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA cut their US corn and soybean yield estimates slightly more than expected. Corn came in at 173.0 bpa, and beans at 49.6 bpa this month. US corn and soybean carryout totals were both smaller than trade expected, while the US wheat carryout came in larger than expected. The global carryout totals for corn, beans, and wheat were all smaller than trade expected. Prices of corn, beans, and wheat were all trading higher 30 minutes following the reports, with beans seeing the largest gains. From the USDA COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... October 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA finds more corn and beans than expected Here are the numbers from today’s USDA reports. Click here for the USDA presentation with all the details and charts. Click here for the USDA October 2021 Crop Production Report. Click here for the USDA October 2021 Wasde Report. USDA Summary Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.019 billion bushels, up 23 million on a marginal increase in yield to 176.5 bushels per acre. Exports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2020/21. With supply rising and use falling, corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 92 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. Soybeans U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record 4.45 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 5 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 51.5 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.9 bushel from the previous forecast ... May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... Comments are closed.