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12

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Traders received a more bearish look at corn ending stocks as the USDA raised corn yields from their August report, from 154.4 bu/ acre to 155.3 bu/acre. The increased corn yield can be attributed to better than expected ear counts than the previous report. Corn planted and harvested numbers remain unchanged so expect the October report to square up that side of corn production. Demand numbers were also left completely unchanged.

As expected, soybean yields were lowered but not more than the trade expected. Bean yields are now forecasted at 41.2 bu/acre from 42.6 bu/acre. The change in yield combined with an offsetting smaller crush number, dropped ending stocks to 150 million bushels from the August forecast of 220 million bushels. We would expect more yield reductions in the October report as well as the weather to play a larger role in just how much bean yields could slide over the next 30 days.

World carry out numbers for corn rose above the average trade guess by 2.43 million tons, now expected at 151.4 million tons. World soybean ending stocks declined to 71.54 million tons but fell within the average trade range. World wheat carry out was increased by 3.290 million tons, above the trade guess by 2.1% or 3.5 million tons.

Click here for the presentation used at today's USDA September Crop Production briefing to the USDA Secretary.

Corn Objective Yield Region

2013-14 USDA U.S. Grain Yield (bu/acre)

 

USDA Sep.
2013 - 2014

Average
Trade Est.

Range of
Trade Est.

USDA Aug.
2013 - 2014

Corn

155.3

153.69

150.2 - 157.20

154.40

Soybeans

41.2

41.172

39.00 - 42.40

42.60

Wheat

46.2

 

 

46.20

2013-14 USDA U.S. Grain Production (bln bu)

 

USDA Sep.
2013 - 2014

Average
Trade Est.

Range of
Trade Est.

USDA Aug.
2013 - 2014

Corn

13.843

13.620

13.330 - 14.013

13.763

Soybeans

3.149

3.140

2.980 - 3.239

3.255

Wheat

2.114

 

 

2.114

2013-14 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)

 

USDA Sep.
2013 - 2014

Average
Trade Est.

Range of
Trade Est.

USDA Aug.
2013 - 2014

Corn

1.855

1.732

1.147 - 2.296

1.837

Soybeans

0.150

0.165

0.144 - 0.230

0.220

Wheat

0.561

0.551

0.477 - 0.600

0.551

2013-14 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)

 

USDA Sep.
2013 - 2014

Average
Trade Est.

Range of
Trade Est.

USDA Aug.
2013 - 2014

Corn

151.42

148.97

139.30 - 153.00

150.17

Soybeans

71.54

71.07

67.10 - 73.97

72.27

Wheat

176.28

172.75

170.00 - 175.72

172.99

Old Crop - September 12, 2013

The highest priced marketing months are March, April, May and June, with an occasional opportunity in July. We plan ahead to make most if not all sales during those high priced months, either in advance of harvest or after harvest, using farmer-owned storage. We avoid making harvest sales like the plague.

2012-13 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)

 

USDA Sep.
2012 - 2013

Average
Trade Est.

Range of
Trade Est.

USDA Aug.
2012 - 2013

Corn

0.661

0.718

0.579 - 0.769

0.719

Soybeans

0.125

0.123

0.107 - 0.145

0.125

Wheat

0.718

 

 

0.718

2012-13 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)

 

USDA Sep.
2012 - 2013

Average
Trade Est.

Range of
Trade Est.

USDA Aug.
2012 - 2013

Corn

122.59

123.53

122.50 - 125.00

123.11

Soybeans

61.55

61.83

59.70 - 62.22

62.22

Wheat

173.85

 

 

174.42

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.