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08

November USDA Supply & Demand

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The trade was not given the ultra-bearish corn outlook expected in today’s WASDE update. Corn ending stocks were adjusted higher but well below the average trade guess by 142 million bushels. Stocks increased by just 32 million bushels from the September report. A 1.9 million acre reduction in harvested acres offset the higher yield estimate by 139 million bushels. Good news was seen in higher demand estimates for U.S. feed, (increased 100 million bushels) and a higher export estimate from the September outlook by 175 million bushels as expected. Old crop demand slowed or we counted new supplies as old with a higher beginning stocks number (+163 million bushels).

World corn stocks for 2013/14 were reported at 164.33 million tons compared to the September number of 151.42 million tons.  The bearish world number is driven by a big jump in beginning stocks. 

U.S. soybean ending stocks increased to 170 million bushels, in line with the average pre-report guess of 172 million bushels. U.S. soybean stocks increased 20 million bushels from the September report. Soybean acres were reduced by 700,000 acres, partially offsetting an increase in bean yield by 1.8 bu/acre. Total production was revised higher by 3.258 billion bushels, just above the average guess of 3.221 Billion bushels. Soybean demand increased 103 million bushels on higher exports and crush demand, 30 million and 80 million bushels respectively. We expect processors maintain a strong bid position to cover strong exports and a very strong meal export program.

World soybean stocks for 2013/14 were reported at 70.23 million tons compared to the September number of 71.50 million tons.  The revision came from a lower beginning stocks adjustment.

U.S. meal exports increase 7.8%.

U.S. wheat stocks came in 46 million bushels, just higher than pre-report estimates at 565 million bushels. Ending stocks were adjusted just 4 million bushels higher on a 16 million bushel production increase offset by downward revisions to food and no change to exports.

World wheat stocks for 2013/14 were pegged at 178.48 million tons compared to the September estimate at 176.30 million tons.  The revision was driven by higher stock estimates  in Argentina, Canada and Europe.   

 

 

 

 

 

2013-14 USDA U.S. Harvested Acreage (mln acres)
 
USDANov 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDASep 2013-14
Corn
87.2
88.097
86.9-89.1
89.1
Soybeans
75.7
75.928
74.7-77.0
76.4
Wheat
45.2


45.7

2013-14 USDA U.S. Grain Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDANov 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDASep 2013-14
Corn
160.4
158.9
155.60-163.30
155.30
Soybeans
43.0
42.4
41.50-43.30
41.20
Wheat
47.20


46.20

2013-14 USDA U.S. Grain Production (bln bu)
 
USDANov 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDASep 2013-14
Corn
13.989
14.003
13.420-14.380
13.843
Soybeans
3.258
3.221
3.137-3.298
3.149
Wheat
2.130


2.114

2013-14 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDANov 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDASep 2013-14
Corn
1.887
2.029
1.799-2.292
1.855
Soybeans
0.170
0.172
0.145-0.240
0.150
Wheat
0.565
0.519
0.380-0.575
0.561

2013-14 USDA World Grain Carryout
(million tons)
 
USDANov 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDASep 2013-14
Corn
164.33
154.20
150.90-159.50
151.40
Soybeans
70.23
72.30
71.10-74.00
71.50
Wheat
178.48
175.90
171.90-180.00
176.30
Categories: | Tags: USDA Report , November Supply/Demand , Acre Reduction | View Count: (2644) | Return
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.