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10

December USDA Supply & Demand

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Slightly friendly U.S. and world corn ending stocks vs. trade guess. The USDA sees corn demand up 100 million bushels total (50 million higher exports, 50 million higher ethanol), adjusting ending stocks tighter by 95 million bushels. The ending stock result was 79 million bushels to the low side of trade guesses but within the ranges. Corn still faces the threat of rising supplies headed into the January report and a mostly short spec crowd.

World coarse grain feed estimates were adjusted 3.3 million tons higher, now a full 59.7 million tons higher than last year or 8.9%.

Soybean estimates fell within the trade guess for U.S. and World ending stocks, adding just 5 million bushels to U.S. crush and another 25 million bushels to U.S. exports. World supplies were adjusted just .4 million tons from the last report.

The tightening in U.S. stocks places even greater risk on South American crops coming through the growing season as expected. Any weather issues will be met with greater risk premium in futures prices.

The USDA's wheat estimate for ending stocks was 35 million bushels higher for U.S. stockpiles and 10 million bushels higher on imports. World ending stocks increased 3.8 million tons above pre-report estimates and 4.3 million tons from last month on higher expected stocks in Canada and Australia.

 

 


Source: USDA December 10, 2013


 

2013-14 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (billion bushels)
 
USDADec 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDANov 2013-14
Corn
1.792
1.871
1.737-2.013
1.887
Soybeans
0.150
0.153
0.118-0.170
0.170
Wheat
0.575
0.540
0.404-0.570
0.565

2013-14 USDAWorld Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDADec 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDANov 2013-14
Corn
162.46
163.30
156.95-165.50
164.33
Soybeans
70.62
71.64
70.00-75.79
70.23
Wheat
182.78
179.11
176.3-182.2
178.48

2013-14 USDA Brazil Production (million tons)
 
USDADec 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDANov 2013-14
Corn
70.00
70.39
68.50-72.00
70.00
Soybeans
88.00
88.74
88.00-90.40
88.00
Wheat
4.75
4.70
4.50-4.77
4.75

2013-14 USDA Argentina Production (million tons)
 
USDADec 2013-14
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDANov 2013-14
Corn
26.00
25.58
24.00-27.50
26.00
Soybeans
54.50
55.33
52.50-59.50
53.50
Wheat
11.00
10.00
9.50-10.50
11.00
Source: USDA, Reuters
Categories: | Tags: USDA Report , December Supply/Demand , Corn Demand , Soybean Demand | View Count: (2858) | Return
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.