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12

April USDA Supply & Demand

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USDA Comments:

WHEAT: U.S. wheat endings stocks for 2015/16 are projected 10 million bushels higher on reduced feed and residual use. At 976 million bushels, these would be the largest ending stocks since 1987. The reduced feed and residual use reflects lower disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by March 1 stocks and revised December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. The projected season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 on the high end to $4.90 to $5.00.

Global 2015/16 wheat supplies are raised 1.0 million tons primarily on increased production, which is a record 733.1 million tons. EU production is raised 1.5 million tons to a record 160.0 million, and Argentina is raised 0.3 million tons to 11.3 million, both on updated government data. Partially offsetting are a 0.6-million-ton reduction for Ethiopia, and a 0.4-million-ton reduction for Pakistan. World exports are raised 0.4 million tons to 163.1 million. World wheat consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 0.7 million tons on both reduced feed and food use. With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 1.7 million tons to 239.3 million, and remain record large.

 

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected higher with increases for corn, barley, and oats based on indicated disappearance as reported in the March 31 Grain Stocks and adjustments to seed use based on intended acreage from Prospective Plantings. Corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting indicated disappearance through the first half of the marketing year. Corn use in ethanol production is projected 25 million bushels higher on a stronger-than-expected pace of weekly ethanol production through March as reported by the Energy Information Administration. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels. The projected season-average farm price for corn is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $3.55 per bushel, with the range lowered 10 cents on the high end.

Offsetting usage changes are made for 2015/16 U.S. sorghum this month. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 15 million bushels based on the March 1 stocks. Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is projected 25 million bushels higher based on robust use of sorghum to make ethanol during February as indicated in the latest Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. Projected exports are lowered 10 million bushels as sales have declined sharply in recent weeks. The sorghum farm price range is projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint to $3.20 per bushel as discounts to corn remain large in the latest data.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 0.3 million tons higher with a number of mostly offsetting changes. Corn production is raised 1.0 million tons for Argentina, as timely rain during February and March was beneficial following some dryness and heat during January. Barley production for Argentina is raised 0.6 million tons on greater area and better-than-expected yields. Argentina corn production is also revised 1.7 million tons higher for 2014/15. Mali corn production for 2015/16 is 0.6 million tons higher following favorable summer rain over the main production areas. Sorghum output is lowered 3.1 million tons for Sudan and 1.2 million tons for Ethiopia, as El Niño conditions over the past year reduced rain in key growing areas. There are also a number of other smaller changes to coarse grains production in several other countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Elsewhere, corn production is raised 0.5 million tons for both Mexico and Serbia. Production is raised for Mexico reflecting the latest government statistics which indicate higher winter planted area in Sinaloa. The change for Serbia is based on the latest government revisions for the crop that was grown last summer.

Global coarse grain exports for 2015/16 are raised 3.5 million tons as increases for corn and barley more than offset a small reduction for sorghum. Corn exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Argentina, 0.3 million tons each for the EU and Russia, and 0.2 million tons for Ukraine. Vietnam corn imports are raised 2.0 million tons, reflecting trade data and updated estimates for feed and residual disappearance. Corn imports for the EU are lowered 1.0 million tons, on a slowing import license pace and large, competitively priced wheat supplies, which are expected to support greater domestic wheat feeding. Corn consumption for Japan is revised lower for several years reflecting official government statistics. Barley exports are raised for the EU and Argentina with higher imports for Saudi Arabia and Iran. Sorghum imports are lowered for China but raised for Mexico. China corn feeding is raised, offsetting a decline in wheat as internal market prices are expected to favor corn. China corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are lowered 2.0 million tons, but the reduction is more than offset by larger stocks in Japan, the United States, Vietnam, Serbia, and Argentina. Global corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons higher.

 

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2015/16 include higher exports, lower seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1,705 million reflecting stronger global soybean imports led by China and several other countries including Iran, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Seed use is reduced slightly in line with plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, down 15 million from last month. Soybean crush and balance sheets for soybean meal and oil are unchanged. Forecast price ranges for soybeans and products are narrowed this month with midpoints all unchanged.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 527.0 million tons, marginally higher than last month, with small, mostly offsetting changes in foreign production. Global soybean production is virtually unchanged at 320.2 million tons as a projected boost to Argentina production offsets a decline for India. Argentina soybean production is projected at 59.0 million tons, up 0.5 million, as a higher forecast yield more than offsets a decline to harvested area. India soybean production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 7.5 million on reduced harvested area and yield. Yields are estimated at just 0.66 tons per hectare, reflecting excessive moisture in Madhya Pradesh and erratic rainfall in Maharashtra. Other changes include reduced soybean production for China, and increased rapeseed production for the EU and China. China sunflowerseed production is also raised, but more than offset by lower forecasts for the EU, Brazil, and Argentina. For 2014/15, global soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 319.5 million on a larger estimate for Brazil. Brazil 2014/15 soybean production is boosted as marketing year trade and crush data indicate a larger production estimate.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 150.8 million tons, up 1.4 million mainly reflecting increased soybean trade. Increased exports projected for Brazil and the United States are only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and India. Soybean imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 83.0 million for China reflecting stronger-than-expected imports from Brazil. Higher soybean imports are projected for several other countries including Iran, Japan, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Partly offsetting are soybean import reductions for Vietnam, Egypt, Venezuela, and Chile. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 79.0 million tons, up 0.2 million with gains for Argentina and China mostly offset with reductions for Brazil and the United States.

 



2015-16 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA April
2015-16
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Mar
2015-16
Corn
1.862
1.845
1.787-1.902
1.837
Soybeans
0.445
0.454
0.430-0.480
0.460
Wheat
0.976
0.977
0.961-0.996
0.966

 

2015-16 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA April
2015-16
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Mar
2015-16
Corn
208.91
207.35
206.00-209.20
206.97
Soybeans
79.02
78.96
77.50-80.50
78.87
Wheat
239.26
237.22
235.14-238.50
237.59

 

2015-16 South American Production (million tons)
 
USDA April
2015-16
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Mar
2015-16
ARG Corn
28.0
27.2
26.5-29.0
27.0
ARG Soy
59.0
59.2
58.2-60.0
58.5
BRZ Corn
84.0
83.8
82.0-85.0
84.0
BRZ Soy
100.0
100.2
99.5-101.0
100.0
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.