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10

August USDA Supply & Demand

posted on

Today’s USDA Report

 

The USDA gave us bigger U.S. yields and bigger world carry out numbers for corn and beans while cutting all the wheat numbers. Crop markets prices immediately fell following the reports.

 

  • The projected season-average farm price for wheat is up $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint with the range at $4.60 to $5.60.
  • The season-average corn price received by producers is down 20 cents at the midpoint at a range of $3.10 to $4.10 per bushel.
  • Beans The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018/19 is forecast at $8.90 per bushel at the midpoint, down 35 cents from last month.
  • The soybean meal price forecast at $295 to $335 per short ton, down $20 at the midpoint.

 

Here are the numbers:

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDA Aug
2018-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2017-18
Corn
178.4
176.2
171.0-180.2
174.0
Soybeans
51.6
49.6
48.0-51.5
48.5

 
2018-19 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Aug
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2017-18
Corn
14.586
14.411
14.150-14.740
14.230
Soybeans
4.586
4.407
4.280-4.576
4.310

2017-18 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Aug
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2017-18
Corn
2.027
2.021
1.900-2.137
2.027
Soybeans
0.430
0.460
0.437-0.480
0.465

2018-19 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Aug
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2018-19
Corn
1.684
1.636
1.457-1.812
1.552
Soybeans
0.785
0.638
0.565-0.726
0.580
Wheat
0.935
0.961
0.850-1.018
0.985

2018-19 Wheat Production (bln bu)
 
USDA
Aug 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Jul 2018
All Winter
1.189
1.180
1.050-1.201
1.193
HRW
0.661
0.656
0.635-0.665
0.657
SRW
0.292
0.302
0.290-0.313
0.303
White
0.236
0.230
0.210-0.240
0.232
Other Spring
0.614
0.601
0.570-0.633
0.614
Durum
0.073
0.074
0.069-0.078
0.075
All Wheat
1.877
1.850
1.700-1.885
1.881

 

Some reactions were: Wow…The Illinois corn yield (207 bpa) is forecasted to be a full 6 bpa better than the previous record state yield (last year at 201 bpa)… 

The Illinois bean yield forecast at 64 bpa is a full 5 bpa better than the previous record of 59 bpa (two years ago in 2016)… 

Also of note, the Nebraska corn yield forecast at 196 bpa is a whopping 11 bpa better than the previous state yield record of 185 bpa set back in 2015.

Take a look at the data in the attached presentation for the secretary to see the data they used in coming to these yield estimates. The USDA must be planning on plenty of rain.

 

Source: USDA

 

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.