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12

September USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA gave us bigger U.S. yields and bigger world carry out numbers for corn and beans while cutting all the wheat numbers. Crop markets prices immediately fell following the reports, then beans bounced higher on the day. Click here to see the Executive Summary given to the secretary.

Today’s numbers confirm big crops in the field. The weather forecast is good and harvest ahead of normal. Rumors that a deal might be in the works with China gave beans the mid-day rally.

  • The projected season-average farm price for wheat is unchanged at the midpoint and the range is narrowed $0.20 per bushel to $4.70 to $5.50.
  • The season-average corn price received by producers is down 10 cents at the midpoint of $3.50.
  • The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018-19 is forecast at $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel, down $0.30 at the midpoint.
  • Soybean meal prices are lowered $5.00 at the midpoint to $290 to $330 per short ton.

Here are the numbers and all of them are bigger than last month:

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDA Sep
2018-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2017-18
Corn
181.3
177.6
174.0-180.0
178.4
Soybeans
52.8
52.3
50.9-53.8
51.6
 
2018-19 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Sep
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2017-18
Corn
14.827
14.516
14.225-14.750
14.586
Soybeans
4.693
4.643
4.523-4.781
4.586

2017-18 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Sep
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2017-18
Corn
2.002
2.022
1.953-2.154
2.027
Soybeans
0.395
0.426
0.397-0.506
0.430

2018-19 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Sep
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2018-19
Corn
1.774
1.614
1.210-1.785
1.684
Soybeans
0.845
0.828
0.722-1.000
0.785
Wheat
0.935
0.949
0.885-1.007
0.935

2017-18 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Sep
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2017-18
Corn
194.15
192.00
188.0-193.8
193.3
Soybeans
94.74
95.5
94.0-97.2
95.6
Wheat
274.36
   
273.1

 

 2018-19 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Sep
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2018-19
Corn
157.03
154.3
152.0-159.0
155.5
Soybeans
108.26
103.3
104.0-111.1
105.9
Wheat
261.29
257.4
252.0-261.4
259.0
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.