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11

October USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA surprised traders today when they pulled the corn yield down 0.6 bushels per acre. Traders thought the yield would be raised 0.5 bpa not cut.

That news gave corn a big boost that surged prices straight up from the green line 20-day moving average. This renewed uptrend will resume the corn Sell Signal. Spec fund buying should continue, but as combines roll, farmer selling will increase too.

The USDA boosted the U.S. bean crop by 0.6 bpa instead of the 0.5 bushels traders expected. This yield likely has not been adjusted to harvest loses. Beans shared in the corn rally.

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Harvested Acres (million acres)
 
USDA
Oct
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Sep
2018-19
Corn
81.8
81.72
81.40-81.90
81.8
Soybeans
88.3
88.72
88.35-88.90
88.9

2018-19 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDA Oct
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2018-19
Corn
180.7
181.8
180.6-183.5
181.3
Soybeans
53.1
53.3
52.0-55.0
52.8
 
2018-19 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Oct
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2018-19
Corn
14.778
14.872
14.700-15.220
14.827
Soybeans
4.690
4.733
4.623-4.890
4.693

2018-19 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Oct
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2018-19
Corn
1.813
1.919
1.766-2.352
1.774
Soybeans
0.885
0.898
0.778-0.985
0.845
Wheat
0.956
0.950
0.895-0.997
0.935
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.