March USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA Supply & Demand report had little change from last month.


The biggest surprise was U.S. corn ending stocks which increased 100 million bushels from last month. The increase was driven by a 75 million bushel reduction in exports and a 25 million bushel cut in ethanol grind.


The average trade guess was looking for a much smaller 15 million bushel increase in corn carryout.


Ethanol production has been running behind the seasonal pace needed to reach the USDA’s previous target since December.


U.S. soybean ending stocks were reduced 10 million bushels from last month to 0.900 billion bushels, 4 million bushels smaller than the average trade estimate.


U.S. wheat ending stocks were increased 45 million bushels from last month to 1.055, 36 million bushels above the average trade guess. A 35 million bushel cut to exports was the largest driver of the increase.


World carryouts were all very close to their pre-report estimates.


World corn ending stocks were reported at 308.53 million tons, 1.27 million tons smaller than last month and 1.37 million tons below the average trade guess. World soybean ending stocks were reported at 107.17 million tons, 0.47 above last month and 0.57 million tons above the average trade estimate. World wheat ending stocks were reported at 270.53 million tons, 3.03 million tons above last month and 2.83 million tons above the average trade guess.


South American production estimates were mostly held in-line with last month. The only change was a 0.5 million ton reduction in Brazil soybean production.



Source: USDA

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.