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June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks

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For weeks we have been telling readers that crop prices are up because of spec fund buying, not supply demand fundamentals. Today we got the USDA’s newest fundamental update. The corn acreage estimate is clearly too big and everybody knows that, unfortunately the spec funds are getting out of some of their net longs and few fundamental buyers are willing to step up to the bar. July corn has slid below the green line 20-day moving average which will turn the price trend down and encourage more spec fund selling.

Traders do have a little positive in corn in that the usage was bigger than expected reducing the stocks 130 million below expectation. That is not enough to stimulate users into buying big inventories.

The bean acreage estimate is also subject to big changes. The bean stocks estimate promise that the big red bar of surplus beans will still be big on the next WASDE Report.

Wheat numbers were boring.

https://www.roachag.com/Portals/0/Research/juneestimates.png

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.