January 2020 USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA surprised farmers and traders with bigger corn and bean yields than were expected. The USDA pegged corn yields at 168.0 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel compared to their December estimate and 2 bushels bigger than the trade estimate.

The bean yield was raised 0.5 bushels per acre compared to the December report at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from the trade estimates.

Corn harvested acreage was decreased by 500 thousand acres, while beans were decreased by 600 thousand acres from the December report.

Carry out numbers were smaller than last year for corn but bigger than the trade estimate. Soybean stocks were the same as last month but up 44 million from trade estimates.

The initial reports of bigger supplies and bigger bean stocks slammed prices lower, however buyers were waiting and within 15 minutes, rallied prices back higher on the day.

Although everybody has been waiting for this USDA report, it really had little bearing on traders’ focus. Middle East conflict and the prospects for China signing phase one next week are much more exciting for traders than the small increases in today’s reports



Source: USDA, Bloomberg

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.