The USDA June quarterly stocks estimates were sharply higher than last year as expected but ended up even larger than the average trade estimates. However, they fell within the range of trade estimates. This was true for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
The June acreage estimates were mixed compared to expectations. Corn acres came in at 91.475 million acres, which was 1.122 million acres larger than the average trade estimate and exceeded the highest trade estimate. This large total was obviously a bearish surprise to traders, as corn prices fell rapidly following the report.
The USDA soybean acreage estimate swung in the opposite direction of corn. Bean acres were 653k smaller than the average trade estimate and fell below the smallest trade estimate. The smaller soybean acreage total tempered the impact of the larger than expected stocks number. Soybeans traded higher post-report.
The wheat picture was also split, with larger than expected stocks, but smaller than expected acres. All wheat acres came in at 47.24 million acres, 417k smaller than the average trade estimate. Wheat prices slipped lower post-report.
Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX