Roach Ag Marketing Acreage Survey

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We really appreciate our customers’ willingness to share results on their farms! We reward survey respondents by sending our report to them a day earlier. This acreage survey was answered by customers in 17 states, but only includes data from 2,696 customers in 11 key states. In states where we did not have a large response, we used the acreage estimate from the USDA planting intentions.

I don’t know of any other group that received this large a sampling for the plantings report, but we are just getting started! If all
of our customers help by completing survey questions, we can give you a much bigger sampling which makes it better information. The more growers responding, the more important the surveys will be to traders. And we will give it to you a day earlier!

For this Plantings Report, we began our analysis with the same acreage estimates used by the USDA in their March Plantings Intentions Report of 91.7 million corn acres and 81.5 million bean acres.

We adjusted those Intentions estimates by the acreage changes our customers made on their farms. We assumed for a moment that the growers in that state surveyed by the USDA made the same changes as were reported by our customers.

Our survey found corn planted acreage was 2.39 million acres less than growers planned in March. Our customers told us the U.S. planted only 89.31 million corn acres, the smallest planted acres since 2010.

Our survey found Soybean acreage was up 98,000 acres from what growers’ planned in March. That would bring U.S. soybean plantings up to a record 81.6 million planted acres.

Survey respondents reported that corn planted acreage was down due to unseasonably cold temperatures and heavy rainfall in states that were expected to increase corn acres the most. Extended planting delays were cited in Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska and South Dakota which made up just over 80% of the corn acreage.

Soybean planted area in the same 11 states increased 98,000 acres compared to the March USDA planting intentions report. Acres increased in Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio and Iowa but decreased in North Dakota (-201,000 acres) and Missouri (-120,000 acres) reduction.

We encourage you to think that corn acreage will be smaller than the March Intentions and bean acreage larger, but we have less confidence in the actual numbers.

Last year our 1700 customers told us they planted 3.9 million acres less than they expected in March. It took until November for the USDA to cut corn plantings by 2.0 million acres and harvested by 2.3 million acres from their March Intentions. We are looking at 2700 survey responses this year while the USDA has surveyed nearly 71,000 for their report next week.

We do not expect the USDA to reduce their corn plantings nearly as much as our survey reported next week. But, based on our survey, expect corn plantings to get smaller over time with more accurate numbers coming out in October after FSA data is fully incorporated.

Although it is getting very late in the planting season, growers will still plant more acres if conditions allow. This especially applies to double crop beans behind winter wheat.

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Roach Ag. Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing Ltd. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. These materials do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts.