October FSA Acres Analysis

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On average, October FSA corn acres have been 96.59% of the final USDA NASS acreage number.  The FSA just reported 87.3 million corn acres for October.  If averages are followed, this would be associated with a final USDA estimate of 90.4 million corn acres.  This matches the current NASS estimate of 90.4 million acres.  2014 was removed from our average calculations because that year was such an aberration.  In October 2014, the FSA acreage was only 94% of the final planted acres compared to the range of 96.4% to 96.8% in the other four years.

On average, October FSA soybean acres are 97.95% of the final USDA NASS acreage estimate.  This afternoon, the FSA reported 88.7 million soybean acres for the October estimate.  If average tendencies are followed, this is associated with a final USDA NASS estimate of 90.6 million.  Currently NASS estimates soybean acres at 90.2 million.  If normal patterns are followed, we could see 364,000 acre increase in soybeans by the USDA by the final report. 


Source: INTL FCStone Financial Inc.

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