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09

April USDA Supply & Demand

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Today's USDA Report numbers came in as expected in pre-report estimates. This report factored in updated usage data from the March Quarterly Grain Stocks report and contained no changes to U.S. production.

U.S. corn ending stocks were increased to 2.035 billion bushels, up 200 million bushels from the March estimate. The increase came from a 75 million bushel reduction in exports, a 75 million bushel cut to feed & residual, and a 50 million bushel drop in corn used for ethanol.

U.S. bean ending stocks were reduced to 0.895 billion bushels, 5 million bushels smaller than the March estimate. Minimal adjustments to imports and seed use made up the change.

U.S. wheat ending stocks were increased to 1.087 billion bushels, 32 million bushels above the March estimate. A 20 million bushel cut to exports and an 11 million bushel cut to feed, seed, and residual drove the increase.

The market traded slightly higher on the news indicating most of the bearish data (within expectations but still mostly larger than last month) in today's report was already priced in and buyers were just waiting for confirmation before stepping into the market.

World inventories came in larger than expected in corn and wheat and below expectations in beans.

World corn ending stocks came in at 314.01 million tons, 1.61 million tons above the average trade guess of 312.4 but within the high end of the range of estimates. This is an increase of 5.5 million tons from March. The increase was largely driven by increased world production (6 million tons) predominately in Argentina (+1 million tons), Brazil (+1.5 million tons), and the EU (+2.12 million tons).

World bean ending stocks come in at 107.36 million tons, 1.04 million tons below the average trade guess of 108.4 but within the range of pre-report estimates. This is a small adjustment of just 0.19 million tons higher than last month.

World wheat ending stocks were reported at 275.61 million tons, 4.51 million tons above the average trade guess of 271.1 and above the high end of the range of pre-report estimates. This is a 5.08 million ton increase over the March estimate. The increase in inventory largely came from reductions in feed use and imports across several countries as well as a slight increase to beginning stocks.

 

Source: USDA

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.