11 June June 2025 USDA Supply & Demand June 11, 2025 By John Roach General, USDA Supply/Demand 0 The monthly June USDA reports were largely sleepers as expected. We’ll have to wait for the June 30 Acreage and Stocks, which have the potential to be more exciting. First off, the USDA left their soybean supply demand tables completely unchanged from the May values. Second, while trade expected the agency to adjust Brazilian corn production higher, the USDA also left all their South American production estimates unchanged this month. The corn balance sheet saw the largest changes, but they were relatively small and completely within the range of trade estimates. Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels, which was based on Census Bureau data. Useage was left unchanged, which lowered US 2025-26 corn carryout from 1.800 billion bushels to 1.750 billion bushels. The changes in the wheat supply demand tables were even smaller than corn. Exports were increased by 25 million bushels, which lowered 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks by the same amount to 898 million bushels. The global supply demand tables received only small adjustments, with corn carryout dropping 2.6 million tons (<1%), soybeans increasing less than 1 million tons (<1%), and wheat carryout declining about 3 million tons (1.1%). Markets traded a few cents lower following the reports. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Corn supplies tightened, beans did not The USDA gave the most positive numbers to the corn market in the WASDE report released Thursday. The old crop corn left in the bin is expected to be 75 million bushels less due to exports and another 75 million bushels smaller due to ethanol. The 150 million bushel cut in the old crop stocks estimate cut the beginning stocks for the new year. The USDA did not change corn acreage or yield estimates for the crop growing in the field. There were no changes in the new crop corn demand estimates. Corn ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year are expected to total 1.357 billion bushels. South American corn production was reduced 3.5 million tons to 98.5 million tons, one million tons more than the average trade estimate. Brazilian soybean production is increased 1 million tons from last month. The trade did not expect that number to change. No changes were made to Argentine production estimates. World corn carryout fell by 2.9 million tons, nearly ... June USDA Supply & Demand USDA reports mostly unchanged from last month Small adjustments in U.S. beginning stocks numbers (-30 million bushels for beans; +45 million bushels for corn) were the biggest changes seen on USDA reports Friday. U.S. corn and soybean acreage and yield estimates were left unchanged from last month. Usage changes were insignificant. U.S. wheat yield was increased 0.3 bpa to 46.9 bpa, which increased production by 8 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks increased by the same 8 million bushels. Global wheat stocks were reduced less than a million tons, while bean stocks were increased nearly a million tons, and corn stocks increased 5 million tons from last months report. Although the corn numbers were larger than traders expected, corn prices didn’t take long to recover losses and move higher on the day. The USDA left Ukraine’s 2022-23 supply demand table for wheat unchanged from last month. They increased Ukraine’s 2022-23 corn production by 5.5 million metric tons and left exports unchanged at 9 million tons (23 million last year). The USDA made small increases to their South American soybean production estimates ... June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... April 2025 USDA Supply & Demand Overall, there were no major changes in today’s USDA old crop supply demand tables. The numbers were most favorable to corn, as US and world carryout both shrank a bit more than trade expected. Changes to the soybean numbers were negligible, while US wheat carryout increased more than expected. The USDA left their South American production estimates unchanged this month. Thirty minutes after the reports, prices across our crop markets were largely the same as they were five minutes before the reports. Traders seem to have shrugged at this round of reports. The May reports will be more important as they will include 2025-26 new crop supply demand tables. As expected, the USDA lowered their US and world carryout estimates for 2024-25 old crop corn. The US corn carryout was 75 million bushels smaller than their March estimate, which was a bigger reduction than the average trade estimate forecast. The smaller US corn ending stocks were largely due to a 100 million bushel increase in exports. World corn carryout was 1.25 million tons (49 million bushels) smaller than March. The US ... June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus. Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released. Corn The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month. Soybeans This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports ... March 2025 USDA Supply & Demand As expected, the USDA made only a few changes to their supply demand tables this month. First, they left US corn and soybean balance sheets essentially unchanged. Trade had expected US corn ending stocks to tighten slightly, so that could be seen as a slight disappointment. For US wheat, the USDA called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and lower exports which increased US wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels. Global corn and soybean ending stocks both tightened a bit this month, while global wheat stocks increased slightly. The drop in global soybean ending stocks fell below the low end of trade estimates, so this would be the second small surprise of the day. Increased crush totals explained the change in world soybean carryout. The USDA chose to leave its South American production estimates unchanged this month, which was in line with trade expectations. Our analysis will be available shortly. Comments are closed.