7 February February USDA Supply & Demand February 7, 2023 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Small fundamental changes disappoint bullish traders After the USDA released its numbers, prices slid across all crop markets before bouncing 15 minutes later. Kansas City wheat gave us the strongest post-report trade. KC March wheat rallied to new recent highs following the report with traders concerned about dry weather forecast in the western Southern Plains. Chicago and Minneapolis wheat also firmed but are currently trading below recent highs. This month’s 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook forecast lower corn used for ethanol by 25 million bushels. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The USDA lowered US soybean crush by 15 million bushels. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million. The 2022-23 U.S. wheat supply and demand numbers were little changed this month, with only minor revisions to domestic use and ending stocks. The global numbers contained no shocks either. Argentine production estimates were smaller than traders expected but were well below the USDA’s January estimates. Source: USDA, Bloomberg Related Posts February 2021 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA disappointed bullish traders with conservative usage and carryover estimates. The USDA corn demand estimates might have surprised traders the most. After seeing big business to China in corn and ethanol, traders had allowed their demand ideas to expand beyond the amounts the USDA was comfortable with. USDA left U.S. ethanol production unchanged, raised corn exports by a measly 50 million bushels, and lowered U.S. corn ending stocks by 50 million bushels, compared to the 160 million bushel reduction traders were expecting. Corn reacted by trading down 10 cents. U.S. bean carryover was reduced to 120 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 123 million bushels. There were little changes in U.S. bean usage. U.S. bean exports were increased by 20 million bushels. South American bean and corn production numbers were left unchanged. All wheat supply demand numbers were left unchanged from last month. When the smoke cleared traders were left with disappointing U.S. numbers heading into the South American harvest. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX February 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The February USDA reports released Thursday was expected to be largely neutral, and the futures market’s immediate reaction appeared to confirm the predictions. The ripple effect of the USDA’s bearish forecast on Brazilian soybeans in comparison to Conab’s more-aggressive cuts left futures stuck in place for a while as analysts weighed the ripple effect on U.S. exports and ending stocks. Wheat futures quickly lost a dime or more while corn was little changed as well at midday. Corn: U.S. ending stocks were increased to 2.172 billion bushels (bbu) based on lower domestic use while global production was reduced on declines in Brazil and Mexico. Foreign The average price projection was unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Soybeans: Slower exports cut the export forecast for the year by 35 MMT from January, leading to a new total of 1.72 bbu. Ending stocks were raised to 315 million bushels as the crush forecast remained unchanged, trimming the average price to $12.65 per bushel. Wheat: U.S. wheat supplies for 2023-24 were projected at stable with exports little changed at 725 mbu. Ending stocks were raised to 658 ... February USDA Supply & Demand USDA reports in line with pre-report estimates. No Surprises As you look at the table of numbers below, you will notice the biggest change came in Brazilian soybeans, which were cut 5 million tons from last month’s estimate, but still came right in the middle of what traders expected. The USDA expects a few more bushels of crop carryout, both in the world and U.S., but not enough of a difference to move prices. This is about the most neutral report we have seen in a while. Traders want to be bullish, thinking the combination of further South American crop losses, strong demand, and rampant inflation are all working in their favor. Spec funds are building bigger long positions in corn and beans and bailing out of short wheat. U.S. equity major indexes cleared the green line 20-day moving average yesterday and are posting additional gains today. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... May USDA Supply & Demand The highly anticipated May USDA supply demand estimates contained a couple of surprises. First both old and new crop U.S. wheat carryout was smaller than trade expected. Second, the first USDA 2022-23 yield estimate was pegged at 177.0 bushels per acre, which was 4.0 bpa below the adjusted trend yield estimate in the February USDA Ag Outlook Forum. See the U.S. supply demand tables below. The rest of the key U.S. numbers were not far from trade estimates. Both old and new corn carryout were larger than expected. Despite the lower than expected 2022-23 corn yield, carryout increased on a 2.5% cut to domestic use and exports. The 2022-23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021-22. The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. The 2022-23 world carryout for corn and soybeans were larger than expected, while world wheat carryout was smaller than expected. In South America, the USDA left their April estimates for Brazilian corn and bean production unchanged while they lowered their ... Comments are closed.