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November 2020 USDA Supply & Demand: Fourth positive report in a row

The USDA reduced U.S. corn and bean yield and production estimates even more than traders expected, giving us a solidly positive report for corn and beans. Wheat, not so much.

Soybean production was forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 98 million bushels on smaller yields. Soybean ending stocks were reduced by 100 million bushels from last month.

Foreign oilseed production was lowered 5.6 million tons to 473.3 million tons.

Corn production was forecast at 14.507 billion bushels, down 215 million bushels from last month, with yields cut to 175.8 bushels per acre. Corn exports were also raised by 325 million bushels to a total of 2.065 billion bushels – a new record. Feed and residual use was cut by 75 million bushes and ending stocks were cut by 465 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels, the smallest since 2013-14.

Global corn ending stocks were 291.4 million tons, down 9 million from last month.

Wheat usage was raised by 5 million bushels based on higher food use during the marketing year. Ending stocks were reduced by 6 million bushels to 877 million bushels.

China’s import pace continues to be robust and at 8.0 million tons, imports would be the largest since 1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million  tons to 320.5 million but remain record high.

 

Source: USDA, Reuters


October 2020 Supply & Demand: Corn and soybean production each down 1%

The USDA pegged the U.S. wheat carryout at 883 million bushels, 42 million bushels below their September report and almost exactly what the trade expected. The smaller stocks came from a 0.4 average bushel per acre reduction, slight adjustment in usage and the carry-in stocks revision.

The USDA pegged U.S. corn yield down 0.1 bushel per acre, slightly larger than trade estimates. Harvest acreage was reduced by 1 million acres and usage was cut by 100 million bushels, split between export and domestic.

Corn ending stocks were reduced but were slightly higher than trade estimates and growers still have more than 2 billion bushels scheduled for a birthday.

The USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 51.9 bpa, unchanged from last month, but 0.3 bushels bigger than traders expected. The positive news came in the bean harvested acreage which was also cut by 1 million acres. In addition, exports were increased by 75 million bushels.

The bean carryover estimate came in at 290 million bushels, well below trade estimates of 369 million bushels and last month’s estimate of 460 million bushels.

If you look back at last week’s Thursday Daily Grain Plan, you will see our forecast came to nearly the same bean carryover number. Be careful about becoming too optimistic about today’s estimates, traders have traded these numbers for at least a week.

Here is why/how the government changed their numbers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: USDA, reuters, StoneX

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