29 September September 2025 Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary September 29, 2025 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Today’s Stocks report was bearish for corn, a big negative for wheat, and a hint favorable for soybeans. The USDA surprised traders with a larger estimate than expected for September 1 corn stocks. The USDA estimated old crop stocks at 1.532 billion bushels, which was 231 million bushels below last year, but still 195 million bushels larger than the average trade estimate. This is nearly +15% above the average trade estimate, a large discrepancy. The USDA estimate for US soybean stocks as of September 1st were more in line with trade estimates, coming in only 7 million bushels below the trade estimate at 316 million bushels. The discrepancy is small but in the favorable direction. US wheat stocks as of September 1 were 2.120 billion bushels, which was 77 million bushels above the average trade estimate. The Small Grains summary was also bearish for wheat, with the production total coming in above the high end of the trade range. Total wheat production for 2025 was estimated at 1.985 billion bushels, which was 60 million bushels above the average guess. Prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat were trading 3-5 cents lower on the day heading into the reports and were trading 6 – 10 cents lower twenty minutes after the reports. These numbers did nothing to generate a bullish story for crop markets. Expect more back and forth chopping action as we proceed through the US harvest and South American planting seasons. If the government shuts down, it will cut off the flow of USDA data, adding some uncertainty to the markets. The next WASDE report is scheduled for next week on Thursday October 9. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts September Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary Corn stocks under the smallest trade estimate. Bean stocks larger than expected. Wheat exactly as expected. Source: StoneX, Reuters The smaller than expected corn stocks drove corn prices up through the 20-day moving average, with Friday’s high (at this writing) nearly reaching the September price peak. Technical traders will view today’s performance as a positive event as well as fundamental traders that have smaller beginning stocks for the crop year. Corn prices have been in a relatively narrow trading range during the month of September and Friday’s report could give us the price thrust up to a Sell Signal. Bigger supplies of soybeans to start the new crop year prevented beans from clearing the green line 20-day moving average Friday. Beans have been in a broad trading range since early August and next week, prices will be back down challenging support and adding days to our Buy Signal. There is a gap left on the November bean chart at $13.50, which will likely be a downside target for technical traders. The just finished wheat harvest was estimated to be smaller than the ... September 2023 Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary More bean and wheat stocks than expected, less corn Corn Stocks Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2023 totaled 1.36 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September 1, 2022. Of the total stocks, 605 million bushels are stored on farms, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 756 million bushels, are down 13 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2023 indicated disappearance is 2.75 billion bushels, compared with 2.97 billion bushels during the same period last year. Bean Stocks Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2023 totaled 268 million bushels, down 2 percent from September 1, 2022. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 72.0 million bushels, up 14 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 196 million bushels, are down 7 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2023 totaled 528 million bushels, down 24 percent from the same period a year earlier. Comments Corn prices were down 7-8 cents following the reports, while beans and wheat both quickly dropped 20 cents. Corn was no longer in ... Sept 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary Reports More corn and beans, less wheat Stocks The USDA reported bigger corn and bean stocks than traders expected. As you can see from the numbers below, corn and wheat stocks were within the range of trade estimates, but the USDA found more beans than anybody expected. USDA Summary Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2020 corn for grain production is revised down 71.0 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 54 thousand tons. Planted area is revised to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 82.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to .71 million acres. The 2020 grain yield, at 171.4 bushels per acre, is down 0.6 bushel from the previous estimate. The 2020 silage yield, at 20.5 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of the Stocks report. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million bushels, down ... September 2024 Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary The USDA pegged Sept. 1 US corn stocks at 1.760 billion bushels, down from trade expectations of 1.844 billion bushels, but 400 bushels larger than last September 1. Soybean stocks were 342 million bushels, down from trade expectations of 351 million bushels, but 78 million bushels larger than last year. The USDA pegged all-wheat production in 2024 at 1.971 billion bushels. This was 5 million bushels more than trade expected and up 9% from 2023’s 1.80 billion bushel production. All winter wheat was 1.349 billion bushels, 1 million less than trade expected. HRW was 770 million, SRW was 372 million, Durum was 80 million, and WW was 236 million. Traders did not react strongly to the numbers. Corn moved about a nickel higher after the reports, while soybeans and wheat improved a couple cents. We have Sell Signals for corn and soybeans. Continue making sales. Source: USDA, Reuters March 2025 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings March 1 Stocks were nearly exactly what traders expected them to be. Corn Stocks were down 201 million bushels, soybean stocks were 65 million bushels larger than last year, and wheat stocks were 148 million bushels larger than last year. With no surprise in Stocks, traders are forced to focus on the Prospective Plantings report (and all the outside market news). Corn acres were above the average trade estimate at 95.326 million acres. Soybean acres were smaller than the average trade estimate at 83.495 million acres. Wheat acres were slightly larger than the average trade estimate at 45.350 million acres. That tells us our current Buy Signals heading into the weather risk period are something livestock feeders need to pay attention to. Those who like to buy courage calls to be able to put hedges on during a rally should be getting those in place. Although we don’t know what the outside news will be in the next 60 days, the greatest risk of growing a crop will take place in that time period. Normally weather will give us ... June 2025 Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks Although U.S. corn stocks declined by about 350 million bushels year over year, the June Stocks Report was in line with the market’s expectations. The corn planted acreage was also in line with the March estimate and trade expectations. Soybean stocks and acres were also very much in line with expectations. Wheat stocks came in slightly above expectations, just above 850 million bushels, but wheat acres were almost exactly in line with the average trade guess. None of the data points from today’s USDA will surprise traders. With the report out of the way, the market will shift its focus back to weather and crop conditions. Source: USDA, Reuters Comments are closed.