12 August August 2025 USDA Supply & Demand August 12, 2025 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 The top line US yield numbers were even larger increases than trade expected. The US corn yield came in at 188.8 bpa, which exceeded last week’s controversial StoneX estimate, and came in above even the largest trade estimate. This was well above last year’s record yield of 179.3 bpa. The US soybean yield estimate was 53.6 bpa, which put it equal to the highest trade estimate. The harvested acreage estimates increased for corn but decreased for soybeans, which increased the size of the US corn production by more than 1 billion bushels. A smaller soybean acreage estimate offset the larger yield, leaving US soybean production 43 million bushels smaller than last month. Thus, the bottom line is that the US corn crop is expected to be a massive record, while the soybean production total was tempered following today’s supply demand update. There were only minimal changes to US wheat production from last month. Soybean prices are sharply higher following the reports. November beans cleared up through the green line 20-day moving average with strong power. The market is telling us we have run out of sellers and reignited the buyer. Spec funds were heavily short soybeans, and the trend has now flipped upward. The funds always follow the trend, and today they are on the wrong side. This is a time to pay attention to the market. Be prepared for a Soybean Sell Signal. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts August 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA delivers bullish reports As soon as the USDA numbers were released today, prices spiked higher. Nearly all crop production estimates and stocks tightened, and the USDA raised its price forecasts. Look for the Sell Signals in winter wheat to continue and new Sell Signals in Minneapolis wheat and corn tomorrow. We believe you should use these upcoming Sell Signals on corn (and possibly beans) to get the inventory sold that you can’t store. Wheat producers continue to maintain 30-60 days’ cash flow needs. Here is what the USDA said about the reports today: OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, and exports. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2020/21 crush and exports. Soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.0 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month. Traders expected the average yield to be down 0.4 bushels per acre. Soybean ... June 2025 USDA Supply & Demand The monthly June USDA reports were largely sleepers as expected. We’ll have to wait for the June 30 Acreage and Stocks, which have the potential to be more exciting. First off, the USDA left their soybean supply demand tables completely unchanged from the May values. Second, while trade expected the agency to adjust Brazilian corn production higher, the USDA also left all their South American production estimates unchanged this month. The corn balance sheet saw the largest changes, but they were relatively small and completely within the range of trade estimates. Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels, which was based on Census Bureau data. Useage was left unchanged, which lowered US 2025-26 corn carryout from 1.800 billion bushels to 1.750 billion bushels. The changes in the wheat supply demand tables were even smaller than corn. Exports were increased by 25 million bushels, which lowered 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks by the same amount to 898 million bushels. The global supply demand tables received only small adjustments, with corn carryout dropping 2.6 million tons (<1%), soybeans increasing less than ... April 2025 USDA Supply & Demand Overall, there were no major changes in today’s USDA old crop supply demand tables. The numbers were most favorable to corn, as US and world carryout both shrank a bit more than trade expected. Changes to the soybean numbers were negligible, while US wheat carryout increased more than expected. The USDA left their South American production estimates unchanged this month. Thirty minutes after the reports, prices across our crop markets were largely the same as they were five minutes before the reports. Traders seem to have shrugged at this round of reports. The May reports will be more important as they will include 2025-26 new crop supply demand tables. As expected, the USDA lowered their US and world carryout estimates for 2024-25 old crop corn. The US corn carryout was 75 million bushels smaller than their March estimate, which was a bigger reduction than the average trade estimate forecast. The smaller US corn ending stocks were largely due to a 100 million bushel increase in exports. World corn carryout was 1.25 million tons (49 million bushels) smaller than March. The US ... August USDA Supply & Demand USDA raises bean yield estimate and cuts corn yield more than expected Corn The USDA reduced their U.S. corn yield estimate by 1.6 bpa, down to 175.4 bpa. That took U.S. corn production down 146 million bushels to 14.359 billion bushels. This was below the trade estimates of 175.9 bpa and 14.392 billion bushels. Corn carryout this fall (2021-22) is now estimated to be 1.530 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month. Ending stocks one year from now (2022-23) are estimated to be 1.388 billion bushels, with total use for the 2022-23 crop year down 45 million bushels from the July estimate. World 2022-23 corn carryout was reduced 6.26 million metric tons from the July estimate to 306.68 million tons. The bottom line, U.S. and world corn supplies tightened on the balance tables. Soybeans U.S. soybean yields were pegged at 51.9 bpa, up from 51.5 bpa last month. Traders expected yields to be lowered to 51.1 bpa. U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.531 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels from last month. The trade estimate was 4.481 billion bushels. Thus, ... March 2025 USDA Supply & Demand As expected, the USDA made only a few changes to their supply demand tables this month. First, they left US corn and soybean balance sheets essentially unchanged. Trade had expected US corn ending stocks to tighten slightly, so that could be seen as a slight disappointment. For US wheat, the USDA called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and lower exports which increased US wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels. Global corn and soybean ending stocks both tightened a bit this month, while global wheat stocks increased slightly. The drop in global soybean ending stocks fell below the low end of trade estimates, so this would be the second small surprise of the day. Increased crush totals explained the change in world soybean carryout. The USDA chose to leave its South American production estimates unchanged this month, which was in line with trade expectations. Our analysis will be available shortly. May 2025 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA’s first look at the 2025-26 crop year balance sheets was favorable for both corn and soybeans. New crop corn carryout came in at 1.8 billion bushels and new crop soybean carryout was 295 million bushels. Both domestic carryout totals were below the average trade estimates, falling to the low end of the trade range. The global corn and soybean carryout totals for 2025-26 were also at the low end of the trade range. For corn, the global carryout of 277.8 million tons was even smaller than the lowest trade estimate. Combined with the weekend news of a 90-day rollback of US-China tariffs, we are starting the new trading week on a positive note with some optimism ahead. It is possible that the Administration will also offer some biofuel guidance in the next week or two, to build further upon this optimism. The wheat numbers had a less optimistic tone as domestic and global wheat carryout for the 2025-26 crop year were larger than the average trade estimate. The USDA finally quit dragging their feet on South American ... Comments are closed.