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11

December USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA just released updated estimates for U.S. and world supply & demand. The USDA made minor adjustment to U.S. corn demand & imports, cutting ethanol production by 50 million bushels and imports by 5 million bushels. No change was made to exports.

As a result, U.S. corn carryout increased by 55 million to 1.781 billion bushels, above trade expectations of 1.738 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean supply/demand was left unchanged from last month, with the carryout still projected at a record 0.955 billion bushels.

U.S. wheat demand was reduced by 25 million bushels on a reduction in exports. As a result, wheat carryout came in at 0.974 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from last week and 18 million above the average trade guess.

No changes were made to U.S. production estimates.

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Dec
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Nov
2018-19
Corn
1.781
1.738
1.700-1.790
1.736
Soybeans
0.955
0.945
0.875-0.975
0.955
Wheat
0.974
0.956
0.924-0.984
0.949
 
World ending stocks increased in corn, soybeans, and wheat. Trade expectations were largely expecting little-to-no change.
 
South American production numbers were mostly unchanged from last month, but the USDA did increase their Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1.5 million tons citing “higher yields in the Center-West region where crops have benefitted from favorable weather conditions.”
 
2018-19 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Dec
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Nov
2018-19
Corn
308.80
307.59
304.19-310.00
307.51
Soybeans
115.33
112.79
110.80-114.00
112.08
Wheat
268.10
266.79
264.32-270.00
266.71

2018-19 USDA South American Production (million tons)
 
USDA Dec
2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Nov
2018-19
ARG Corn
42.50
42.43
41.00-43.00
42.50
ARG Soy
55.50
55.72
55.50-57.00
55.50
BRZ Corn
94.50
94.41
90.00-96.00
94.50
BRZ Soy
122.00
120.88
119.00-122.00
120.50

Source: USDA, Reuters, INTL FCStone

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.