May USDA Supply & Demand

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Today's report confirmed expectations the USDA would project another year with large crop carryouts domestically and abroad. Keep in mind, today's U.S. new crop corn and bean numbers are based on acreage from March Planting Intentions and a trend-line yield "assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer growing season weather".  Both of those assumptions, and final acreage, are likely to be called into question between now and harvest.

Corn yield for 2019-20 is projected at 176 bu/acre, 0.4 bushels smaller than last year. Total production is seen at 15.030 billion bushels based on 92.8 million planted acres from the March Planting Intentions report. Carryout is projected at 2.485 billion bushels, 390 million bushels bigger than last year. Exports are seen decreasing 25 million bushels year-over-year.

The 2019-20 soybean yield is projected at 49.5 bu/acre, 2.1 bushels smaller than last year. Total production is seen at 4.150 billion bushels based on 84.6 million planted acres. Carryout is estimated at 0.970 billion bushels, 25 million bushels smaller than last year, but that includes a 175 million bushel year-over-year increase in exports.

The 2019-20 wheat yield is projected at 48.6 bu/acre, a 1 bushel increase from last year. Total production is seen at 1.897 based on a projected 45.8 million planted acres. Carryout is estimated at 1.141 billion bushels, 14 million bushels bigger than 2018-19.


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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.