8 June June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand June 8, 2023 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus. Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released. Corn The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month. Soybeans This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for 2022-23, down 15 million bushels to 2.0 billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and competition from South America. With increased supplies for 2023-24 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 15 million. The soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The USDA also cut their Argentine bean production estimate 2 million tons, while increasing their Brazilian estimate by 1 million tons. Wheat Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.14 billion bushels, up 1% from the May 1 forecast and up 3% from 2022. As of June 1, the United States yield is forecast at 44.9 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel from last month but down 2.1 bushels from last year’s average yield of 47.0 bushels per acre. Hard Red Winter production, at 525 million bushels, is up 2% last month. The outlook for 2023-24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat production is projected at 1,665 million bushels, up 6 million from last month on higher Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter. The all wheat yield is 44.9 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month but remaining below last year. Total use is unchanged with all of the production increase added to ending stocks, now projected at 562 million bushels. The 2023-24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.30 per bushel to $7.70 on larger U.S. and foreign wheat supplies. Source: USDA, Bloomberg Related Posts July 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn yield estimate but left beans unchanged The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre this month, while they left their US bean yield estimate unchanged at 52.0 bpa. Trade was expecting lower yield estimates for both (176.6 & 51.4 bpa, respectively). This put their 2023 production estimates above trade expectations. The USDA estimates for next year’s carryout (2023-24) were larger than trade expected for corn, beans, and wheat. Of note, their 2023-24 soybean carryout estimate was 300 million bushels, 50% above the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. Soybean prices dropped 40 cents lower on the larger than expected bean carryout. In South America, the USDA offset changes in corn production by lowering their Argentine estimate 1 million tons at the same time they increased their Brazilian corn production estimate 1 million tons. They left their South American soybean production estimates unchanged from last month. Total wheat 2023-24 wheat production was larger than trade expected. The USDA increased their total wheat production estimate by 74 million bushels to 1.739 ... June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Corn supplies tightened, beans did not The USDA gave the most positive numbers to the corn market in the WASDE report released Thursday. The old crop corn left in the bin is expected to be 75 million bushels less due to exports and another 75 million bushels smaller due to ethanol. The 150 million bushel cut in the old crop stocks estimate cut the beginning stocks for the new year. The USDA did not change corn acreage or yield estimates for the crop growing in the field. There were no changes in the new crop corn demand estimates. Corn ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year are expected to total 1.357 billion bushels. South American corn production was reduced 3.5 million tons to 98.5 million tons, one million tons more than the average trade estimate. Brazilian soybean production is increased 1 million tons from last month. The trade did not expect that number to change. No changes were made to Argentine production estimates. World corn carryout fell by 2.9 million tons, nearly ... October 2023 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA cut their US corn and soybean yield estimates slightly more than expected. Corn came in at 173.0 bpa, and beans at 49.6 bpa this month. US corn and soybean carryout totals were both smaller than trade expected, while the US wheat carryout came in larger than expected. The global carryout totals for corn, beans, and wheat were all smaller than trade expected. Prices of corn, beans, and wheat were all trading higher 30 minutes following the reports, with beans seeing the largest gains. From the USDA COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling ... June USDA Supply & Demand USDA reports mostly unchanged from last month Small adjustments in U.S. beginning stocks numbers (-30 million bushels for beans; +45 million bushels for corn) were the biggest changes seen on USDA reports Friday. U.S. corn and soybean acreage and yield estimates were left unchanged from last month. Usage changes were insignificant. U.S. wheat yield was increased 0.3 bpa to 46.9 bpa, which increased production by 8 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks increased by the same 8 million bushels. Global wheat stocks were reduced less than a million tons, while bean stocks were increased nearly a million tons, and corn stocks increased 5 million tons from last months report. Although the corn numbers were larger than traders expected, corn prices didn’t take long to recover losses and move higher on the day. The USDA left Ukraine’s 2022-23 supply demand table for wheat unchanged from last month. They increased Ukraine’s 2022-23 corn production by 5.5 million metric tons and left exports unchanged at 9 million tons (23 million last year). The USDA made small increases to their South American soybean production estimates ... September 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Corn production larger, beans and wheat as traders expected The USDA found more corn and bean acres in their September report. Corn plantings were increased by 774,000 acres and bean plantings by 95,000 acres. The average corn yield was pulled down 1.3 bpa to 173.8 bpa and the soybean yield was 0.8 bpa lower at 50.1 bpa. Both yield estimates were in line with trade expectations. The net result was an increase in corn production of 23 million bushels to 15.134 billion bushels. If they are correct, it would be a record corn crop by 60 million bushels. Bean production was estimated at 4.146 billion bushels, a decrease of 59 bushels from the August estimate. This would be a large bean production but well below record level. US corn usage estimates were unchanged this month. All US supply demand numbers for wheat were left unchanged this month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from ... November 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Traders react bearish to USDA numbers Corn The USDA raised their US corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bushels, increasing their estimate from 173.0 to 174.9 bpa from October to November. The USDA raised the 2023 US corn production to a record 15.234 billion bushels, up from 15.064 billion last month, and the average trade estimate of 15.079 billion. Corn ending stocks for next fall were estimated at 2.156 billion bushels, up from 2.111 billion last month, and the average trade guess of 2.131 billion bushels. Corn is in a 4-Box Buy Signal. Livestock producers should be purchasing feed. Soybeans The USDA bean yield was also increased, moving to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa last month. The USDA soybean production estimate was pegged at 4.129 billion bushels, up from 4.104 billion last month. Soybean carryover increased to 245 million bushels, compared to 220 million bushels last month, and the average trade estimate of 222 million bushels. Wheat US wheat carryout for next July increased to 684 million bushels, compared to 670 million last month and the average trade estimate of 669 million bushels. Thoughts These numbers were ... Comments are closed.