7 March March 2024 USDA Supply & Demand March 7, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 USDA reduced world crop surplus. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX US 2023-24 grain carryout was left unchanged from last month except for a slight increase in wheat. As we’ve outlined in recent webinars, the USDA has not changed supply demand tables hardly at all since we began receiving them in May. World carryout was reduced for each of the three crops we follow. In each case, production was slightly smaller and consumption was increased, thereby decreasing carryout. The USDA is still using a bigger corn and bean production estimates for South America than most of the private estimates, so these stock estimates will likely be reduced next month. Twenty minutes after the report was released, corn, beans, and wheat were all sitting near their respective highs for the day. Corn moved solidly above the green line 20-day moving average. Look for a Sell Signal on Monday. We have been waiting for this corn Sell Signal but hate the price level. Keep your sales small on Monday. If you need to generate cash, make sales. If you want to dribble out a few bushels of new crop that is OK too. We will be more willing sellers on the Sell Signal following this one. Related Posts March 2021 USDA Supply & Demand USDA leaves U.S. numbers mostly unchanged and tightened world wheat numbers slightly Traders’ initial reaction to USDA numbers put pressure on corn and beans but boosted wheat prices. As you can see from the tables below, U.S. carryover numbers were unchanged from last month. World corn and bean carryover numbers were just slightly changed. World wheat carryover declined by 3 million tons. South American crops were little changed. Brazilian bean production was increased by 1 million tons. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX March USDA Supply & Demand The USDA did not offer any surprises today. Grain usage estimates were in line with traders’ expectations. In South America, the Argentine corn and bean crops were right in line with what trade expected. In Brazil, the soybean crop was 2 million tons smaller and corn crop 1 million ton larger than the average trade forecast. Most traders think the USDA will reduce the Brazilian bean crop further in subsequent reports. Source: USDA, StoneX, Bloomberg The USDA report did not take traders’ attention away from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. News reports Wednesday indicate more intense negotiations for a settlement were being facilitated by Israel. Facing an onslaught of Russian destruction alone, Ukraine is being encouraged to negotiate a settlement. Commodity traders are betting that will occur, as of this writing. It is not too late to plant a crop there, and crop prices are reacting accordingly. They may see the Ukraine situation differently tomorrow. Source: USDA, StoneX March USDA Supply & Demand U.S. Corn Carryout Grows while Argentine Crops Shrink Today’s USDA Supply & Demand report was a mixed bag of information. U.S. Corn exports were reduced 75 million bushels from the February estimate, leading to a larger than expected jump in domestic ending stocks. On the other hand, Argentina’s corn production estimate was reduced 3 million tons more than expected. The bean numbers were bullish, causing an initial jump in futures prices that has since cooled off (as of this writing). A 10 million bushel cut to U.S. crush was more than offset by a 25 million bushel increase in exports, leading to a net reduction in ending stocks of 15 million bushels. Pre-report trade was expecting just a slight 5 million bushel decrease in carryout. Argentina bean production was reduced from 41 million tons to 33 million, smaller than the average trade guess of 36.55. The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged. World wheat supplies shrank slightly, though that cut was largely attributed to an adjustment to China’s 20/21 feed and residual use carried through to world new crop ... February 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The February USDA reports released Thursday was expected to be largely neutral, and the futures market’s immediate reaction appeared to confirm the predictions. The ripple effect of the USDA’s bearish forecast on Brazilian soybeans in comparison to Conab’s more-aggressive cuts left futures stuck in place for a while as analysts weighed the ripple effect on U.S. exports and ending stocks. Wheat futures quickly lost a dime or more while corn was little changed as well at midday. Corn: U.S. ending stocks were increased to 2.172 billion bushels (bbu) based on lower domestic use while global production was reduced on declines in Brazil and Mexico. Foreign The average price projection was unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Soybeans: Slower exports cut the export forecast for the year by 35 MMT from January, leading to a new total of 1.72 bbu. Ending stocks were raised to 315 million bushels as the crush forecast remained unchanged, trimming the average price to $12.65 per bushel. Wheat: U.S. wheat supplies for 2023-24 were projected at stable with exports little changed at 725 mbu. Ending stocks were raised to 658 ... April 2024 USDA Supply & Demand USDA report contained only small adjustments this month Traders see today’s fundamental forecast showing more than adequate supplies and ending stocks. The South American corn crop is still at risk and the USDA has refused to lower their estimate as far as private trade estimates have fallen. All of the northern hemisphere crops are into their risk periods. We have written virtually that same paragraph following each one of the most recent reports. The numbers have not really changed much since last fall, except the South American crops turned out to be smaller than expected. Today’s fundamentals have been well traded in recent weeks. There were no surprises today. Now we are all focused don’t he growing conditions in all the major production areas in the world, especially the United States. Most areas are off to a pretty good start but it is just April and too soon to tell how good crops are going to be. Today’s fundamentals tell traders that prices will be cheap this fall if we don’t have any weather problems in the United States or some ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... Comments are closed.