October 2020 Supply & Demand: Corn and soybean production each down 1%
The USDA pegged the U.S. wheat carryout at 883 million bushels, 42 million bushels below their September report and almost exactly what the trade expected. The smaller stocks came from a 0.4 average bushel per acre reduction, slight adjustment in usage and the carry-in stocks revision.
The USDA pegged U.S. corn yield down 0.1 bushel per acre, slightly larger than trade estimates. Harvest acreage was reduced by 1 million acres and usage was cut by 100 million bushels, split between export and domestic.
Corn ending stocks were reduced but were slightly higher than trade estimates and growers still have more than 2 billion bushels scheduled for a birthday.
The USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 51.9 bpa, unchanged from last month, but 0.3 bushels bigger than traders expected. The positive news came in the bean harvested acreage which was also cut by 1 million acres. In addition, exports were increased by 75 million bushels.
The bean carryover estimate came in at 290 million bushels, well below trade estimates of 369 million bushels and last month’s estimate of 460 million bushels.
If you look back at last week’s Thursday Daily Grain Plan, you will see our forecast came to nearly the same bean carryover number. Be careful about becoming too optimistic about today’s estimates, traders have traded these numbers for at least a week.
Here is why/how the government changed their numbers.
Source: USDA, reuters, StoneX