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June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks

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Today's USDA quarterly grain stocks reports gave a big surprise to traders in corn and bean acres with smaller adjustments in to stocks. Corn acres were reported at 94.1 million acres, up from 93.6 million in March. Soybean acres were smaller than the trade guess at 83.7 million but did increase 1.45 million acres to 83.68. All wheat acres were pegged at 50.816 million, up 1.2 million from March driven by large expansions in spring and winter wheat crops.

Stocks as of June 1 for corn were reported at 4.722 Billion bushels, up almost 200 million from the trade guess mid point. Bean stocks were up almost 40 million above the trade guess average at 870 million bushels. Wheat stocks were unchanged. Larger stocks in corn and beans would imply smaller demand figures in upcoming reports although USDA economists can adjust as they see fit based on other factors including crop prices, currency fluctuations and economic conditions.

Traders will now look back to weather for direction in the crop markets we follow. Larger corn acres essentially decreases yield risk although a very tight balance sheet over in beans will leave corn supported until we get through pollination. A whiff of a weather problem in beans will push ending stocks to record tight levels in the US and world which we have covered many times.

We would encourage end users to step up purchases of corn, as the U.S. farmer will not have anything for sale at current prices. If the specs see value in today's price they will be the new long in a market thin on sellers.

The maps below highlight several states with record corn and bean plantings signaling U.S. crops will report one of the smaller prevent plant acreage numbers in several years.

 

 

 

 

 

USDA June 1 U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks (bln bu)
 
USDA
June 1 2016
Average
Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
June 1
2015
Corn
4.722
4.528
4.437-4.650
4.453
Soybeans
0.870
0.829
0.775-0.862
0.627
Wheat
0.981
0.982
0.953-1.000
0.752

 

USDA June Acreage (mln acres)
 
USDA
June 2016
Average Trade Est.
Range Of
Trade Est.
USDA
March 2016
Corn
94.148
92.896
92.000-94.005
93.601
Soybeans
83.688
83.834
82.100-85.700
82.236
Wheat
50.816
49.869
48.800-53.916
49.599
All Winter
36.538
36.384
36.000-38.725
36.216
Spring Wheat
12.133
11.714
11.000-13.350
11.348
Durum Wheat
2.145
1.975
1.800-2.100
1.995
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.