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September Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary

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Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and Small Grains Annual Summary

The USDA issued its quarterly stocks report which estimates the 2018-19  crop year ending stocks.

The USDA estimated September 1 corn stocks to be 2.11 billion bushels, which was well below trade estimates. Corn prices moved higher on this news and our Sell Signal for corn remains in effect. Use this opportunity to sell corn to generate 30 to 60 days cash flow.

Soybean stocks were 913 million bushels, which is also below trade estimates, yet remains the largest September ending stock by a large margin. Increased soybean purchases by China in the fourth quarter likely kept this figure under the one billion mark.

September 1 wheat stocks are 2.38 billion bushels, which was in line with trade estimates.

The USDA’s 2019 total wheat production estimates were in line with trade estimates. All wheat combined production was estimated at 1.962 billion bushels, which is less than 1% below their August figure. Chicago wheat was the outlier, with soft red winter wheat production lower than trade expectations and 7% reduced from the August estimate.

 

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.