8 November November 2023 USDA Supply & Demand November 8, 2023 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Traders react bearish to USDA numbers Corn The USDA raised their US corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bushels, increasing their estimate from 173.0 to 174.9 bpa from October to November. The USDA raised the 2023 US corn production to a record 15.234 billion bushels, up from 15.064 billion last month, and the average trade estimate of 15.079 billion. Corn ending stocks for next fall were estimated at 2.156 billion bushels, up from 2.111 billion last month, and the average trade guess of 2.131 billion bushels. Corn is in a 4-Box Buy Signal. Livestock producers should be purchasing feed. Soybeans The USDA bean yield was also increased, moving to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa last month. The USDA soybean production estimate was pegged at 4.129 billion bushels, up from 4.104 billion last month. Soybean carryover increased to 245 million bushels, compared to 220 million bushels last month, and the average trade estimate of 222 million bushels. Wheat US wheat carryout for next July increased to 684 million bushels, compared to 670 million last month and the average trade estimate of 669 million bushels. Thoughts These numbers were not enough to change anybody’s opinion about supply and demand. Maybe the corn number increased enough to make a little difference there, but what is much more important is the weather down in Brazil, war in the Black Sea region, and global political uncertainty. Right now, we believe the soybean market is up on a peak due to South American weather worries, a big round of Chinese business, and commodity fund buying. We were thankful to get the soybean Selll Signal this week and hope you were able to sell the beans you needed. That being said, we look for higher prices next year on beans, unless the Brazilian weather stages a change for the better. The wheat prices have been beaten down for weeks because offers out of Ukraine and Russia have been discounted below other world offers. In addition, commodity funds have built large net short positions. Wheat markets are way overdue for a bounce. When wheat prices move solidly above the 20-day moving average, we should get very active fund buying and a boost in price. Or as we saw this week, if ships are attacked, prices rally. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts July 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn yield estimate but left beans unchanged The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre this month, while they left their US bean yield estimate unchanged at 52.0 bpa. Trade was expecting lower yield estimates for both (176.6 & 51.4 bpa, respectively). This put their 2023 production estimates above trade expectations. The USDA estimates for next year’s carryout (2023-24) were larger than trade expected for corn, beans, and wheat. Of note, their 2023-24 soybean carryout estimate was 300 million bushels, 50% above the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. Soybean prices dropped 40 cents lower on the larger than expected bean carryout. In South America, the USDA offset changes in corn production by lowering their Argentine estimate 1 million tons at the same time they increased their Brazilian corn production estimate 1 million tons. They left their South American soybean production estimates unchanged from last month. Total wheat 2023-24 wheat production was larger than trade expected. The USDA increased their total wheat production estimate by 74 million bushels to 1.739 ... October 2023 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA cut their US corn and soybean yield estimates slightly more than expected. Corn came in at 173.0 bpa, and beans at 49.6 bpa this month. US corn and soybean carryout totals were both smaller than trade expected, while the US wheat carryout came in larger than expected. The global carryout totals for corn, beans, and wheat were all smaller than trade expected. Prices of corn, beans, and wheat were all trading higher 30 minutes following the reports, with beans seeing the largest gains. From the USDA COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling ... June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus. Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released. Corn The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month. Soybeans This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports ... September 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Corn production larger, beans and wheat as traders expected The USDA found more corn and bean acres in their September report. Corn plantings were increased by 774,000 acres and bean plantings by 95,000 acres. The average corn yield was pulled down 1.3 bpa to 173.8 bpa and the soybean yield was 0.8 bpa lower at 50.1 bpa. Both yield estimates were in line with trade expectations. The net result was an increase in corn production of 23 million bushels to 15.134 billion bushels. If they are correct, it would be a record corn crop by 60 million bushels. Bean production was estimated at 4.146 billion bushels, a decrease of 59 bushels from the August estimate. This would be a large bean production but well below record level. US corn usage estimates were unchanged this month. All US supply demand numbers for wheat were left unchanged this month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from ... August 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA Report Summary USDA delivers positive corn and bean numbers in Friday’s reports to go along with Roach Ag Buy Signals The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is 2.4 bushels lower than last month’s projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that among the major producing States, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago. Corn production for 2023-24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection, but if realized, would still be the second highest production on record behind 2016-17. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2023-24 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 2% from last year. The UDSA forecast soybean exports would be down 25 million bushels. They left crush unchanged, pegging ending stocks at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month and 22 million below the average trade estimate. The USDA data was not ... November USDA Supply/Demand USDA raises corn and bean yields slightly; little change in stocks. Although it was not immediately apparent in the USDA supply demand report, Argentina is moving into a key role in world corn prices. The USDA forecast total world coarse grain exports at 225.12 million metric tons in today’s report. 59.22 million tons were forecast to be shipped from the United States, with 46.5 million tons from Argentina, and 47.03 million tons from Brazil. That Argentine number was down half a million tons from last month. Drought in Argentina is threatening their corn crop and moving that country into a more important role in corn prices. Our weather consultant didn’t see immediate relief for the Argentine drought in his report this morning. The majority of the Brazilian corn crop is planted as a second crop following soybeans and won’t have much impact on our market for several months. Meanwhile, corn prices have been beat down due to low water in the Mississippi and discounted feed grain prices in the Black Sea region. Our system is giving us the sixth day of a Buy ... Comments are closed.