10 August August 2023 USDA Supply & Demand August 10, 2023 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 USDA Report Summary USDA delivers positive corn and bean numbers in Friday’s reports to go along with Roach Ag Buy Signals The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is 2.4 bushels lower than last month’s projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that among the major producing States, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago. Corn production for 2023-24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection, but if realized, would still be the second highest production on record behind 2016-17. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2023-24 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 2% from last year. The UDSA forecast soybean exports would be down 25 million bushels. They left crush unchanged, pegging ending stocks at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month and 22 million below the average trade estimate. The USDA data was not enough to push prices outside (during the first 15 minutes of post-report trade) of the trading range that they have been in since the first of August. The Brazilian corn crop continues to grow. The USDA increased their estimate by 2 million tons to 135.0 million tons, well above the latest CONAB estimate of 130.0 million tons. US wheat production numbers were little changed from July and wheat prices tested recent lows after the USDA numbers were released. Source: USDA, Bloomberg Related Posts July 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn yield estimate but left beans unchanged The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre this month, while they left their US bean yield estimate unchanged at 52.0 bpa. Trade was expecting lower yield estimates for both (176.6 & 51.4 bpa, respectively). This put their 2023 production estimates above trade expectations. The USDA estimates for next year’s carryout (2023-24) were larger than trade expected for corn, beans, and wheat. Of note, their 2023-24 soybean carryout estimate was 300 million bushels, 50% above the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. Soybean prices dropped 40 cents lower on the larger than expected bean carryout. In South America, the USDA offset changes in corn production by lowering their Argentine estimate 1 million tons at the same time they increased their Brazilian corn production estimate 1 million tons. They left their South American soybean production estimates unchanged from last month. Total wheat 2023-24 wheat production was larger than trade expected. The USDA increased their total wheat production estimate by 74 million bushels to 1.739 ... October 2023 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA cut their US corn and soybean yield estimates slightly more than expected. Corn came in at 173.0 bpa, and beans at 49.6 bpa this month. US corn and soybean carryout totals were both smaller than trade expected, while the US wheat carryout came in larger than expected. The global carryout totals for corn, beans, and wheat were all smaller than trade expected. Prices of corn, beans, and wheat were all trading higher 30 minutes following the reports, with beans seeing the largest gains. From the USDA COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling ... August 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA delivers bullish reports As soon as the USDA numbers were released today, prices spiked higher. Nearly all crop production estimates and stocks tightened, and the USDA raised its price forecasts. Look for the Sell Signals in winter wheat to continue and new Sell Signals in Minneapolis wheat and corn tomorrow. We believe you should use these upcoming Sell Signals on corn (and possibly beans) to get the inventory sold that you can’t store. Wheat producers continue to maintain 30-60 days’ cash flow needs. Here is what the USDA said about the reports today: OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, and exports. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2020/21 crush and exports. Soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.0 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month. Traders expected the average yield to be down 0.4 bushels per acre. Soybean ... June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus. Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released. Corn The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month. Soybeans This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports ... September 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Corn production larger, beans and wheat as traders expected The USDA found more corn and bean acres in their September report. Corn plantings were increased by 774,000 acres and bean plantings by 95,000 acres. The average corn yield was pulled down 1.3 bpa to 173.8 bpa and the soybean yield was 0.8 bpa lower at 50.1 bpa. Both yield estimates were in line with trade expectations. The net result was an increase in corn production of 23 million bushels to 15.134 billion bushels. If they are correct, it would be a record corn crop by 60 million bushels. Bean production was estimated at 4.146 billion bushels, a decrease of 59 bushels from the August estimate. This would be a large bean production but well below record level. US corn usage estimates were unchanged this month. All US supply demand numbers for wheat were left unchanged this month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from ... November 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Traders react bearish to USDA numbers Corn The USDA raised their US corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bushels, increasing their estimate from 173.0 to 174.9 bpa from October to November. The USDA raised the 2023 US corn production to a record 15.234 billion bushels, up from 15.064 billion last month, and the average trade estimate of 15.079 billion. Corn ending stocks for next fall were estimated at 2.156 billion bushels, up from 2.111 billion last month, and the average trade guess of 2.131 billion bushels. Corn is in a 4-Box Buy Signal. Livestock producers should be purchasing feed. Soybeans The USDA bean yield was also increased, moving to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa last month. The USDA soybean production estimate was pegged at 4.129 billion bushels, up from 4.104 billion last month. Soybean carryover increased to 245 million bushels, compared to 220 million bushels last month, and the average trade estimate of 222 million bushels. Wheat US wheat carryout for next July increased to 684 million bushels, compared to 670 million last month and the average trade estimate of 669 million bushels. Thoughts These numbers were ... Comments are closed.